Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast:' Will It Be Canceled or Will It Be Renewed?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 14th, 2013

Heart of Darkness

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Other than Cult getting canceled (who didn't see that coming?) no changes to the table below this week.

Will Convention Save Beauty And The Beast?

When it comes to Beauty And The Beast, Bill thinks it's likely to be renewed and I think it's likely to be canceled. For us, that's a wide discrepancy this late in the season. Even last year when we disagreed on the fates of The Secret Circle and Hart Of Dixie in our final guesses, we both had both shows on the bubble/toss-ups for renewal heading into those guesses.

Bill outlines three reasons for the renewal prediction for Beauty And The Beast, but it's only one of them --past scheduling history-- that's the crux of the disagreement. Even within that reasoning, there's only one part of it where we disagree:

1. CW can't cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast without breaking (at least a little) from past scheduling history
2. It's more likely they will renew one of them than break with past history
3. If one has to be renewed, it's Beauty and the Beast.

It's a reasonable position, that may be the correct one. The first item above is a fact and if I agreed with the second item above (I don't), I would certainly agree with the third.

I assume the CW will renew five of its scripted shows and Bill assumes 6.  Whether it's five or six the list of things that the CW absolutely can't do in its fall schedule announcement is short: I don't think it can announce an hour (or hours) of scheduled repeats.*

Would an hour or two of unscripted on CW's fall schedule surprise me? Nope. Five hours of veterans with three hours of new scripted and two hours of unscripted has been done before (as recently as fall 2011**).

Would four new scripted shows launched in the fall surprise me? Yes, but only a little. We're talking 4 vs. the normal 3. It's a difference, but it's not a big difference particularly if CW stays with its staggered schedule approach where most season premieres don't happen in the same week anyway. Plus this year the CW loses two shows (90210 and Gossip Girl) that had four or more seasons. That's the first time that's happened since I've been following things closely From the 2008-2009 season through the 2011-12 season CW either lost no shows that were at least four years old or lost only one.

*It's fine if the CW winds up with an hour or two of scheduled repeats after the season starts, that almost always happens. It's only announcing them in advance that never happens.

**Fall of 2011 launched with only five veterans, but a sixth was renewed (One Tree Hill) and held for mid-season. Fall had two hours of unscripted on the schedule announcement America's Next Top Model and (the quickly canceled and replaced with schedule repeats) H8R.

Prognosis Negative: Presumption of future ratings

If renewed, Beauty and the Beast will no longer air after The Vampire Diaries. From there it's reasonable to assume the ratings will go down and quite likely to The Carrie Diaries levels or worse. Whether you're CW, CBS or an ad buyer, that's the reasonable assumption. I assume CW, CBS and the ad buyers will all make exactly that assumption.

So why do that? There are things to consider from economics to appearances of stability. But in thinking those through, I still don't see it getting renewed unless the ratings start going up when it returns this Thursday.

It's not quite the same as last year's situation with The Secret Circle and Hart Of Dixie where Hart Of Dixie could make a much better either/or case. I understand looking at it and thinking "it's the same either/or choice as last year, only this year the Thursday show will win out!"

Last year it was reasonable for CW to assume Hart Of Dixie's future ratings would be stable if renewed and  and that The Secret Circle's would go down. The landscape is nearly identical between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast with the big exception that The Carrie Diaries isn't a reasonable option with its ratings as low as they are. But because Beauty and the Beast will be moved if renewed it's probably going to wind up with ratings that are at the level of The Carrie Diaries anyway.

If you're in the "but they have to pick one of them!" camp, Beauty and the Beast is likely to be renewed. I'm not in that camp this year. Is the CW?  We only have to wait about a month to find out.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
-

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Cult CW Canceled/Final Season
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Body Of Proof ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty and the Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Glee Fox Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed

--

 
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
  • mariacristina

    boring, boring.
    There are a lots of shows you can talk about. Why always this?…….
    It seems a personal matter.
    By the way BATB it’s a cute show.

  • Dan W

    Still think The Carrie Diaries will be renewed. If The CW is truly taking online viewing and sales into consideration like Deadline reported, TCD is their number 2 most watched show after TVD. If that gives them more money than BATB does, of course they are going to renew TCD over BATB because they would obviously want more money. I also think that the sudden cancellation of Cult and re-airing of TCD finale is a good sign.

  • Niki

    Could we sometime get such a detailed analysis on the 3 NBC sitcoms on the bubble? There should be some argument against/for each and one of them.
    Are you going to take a side on renewal/cancel on them soon, or they will be kept hangin on the bubble? Their status is much more interesting for me than BATB.

  • Tommy

    @Holly @Brandy
    Harry’s law season 2 ended with a 0.7 rating and 5.9 million viewers and season 2 premiered with a 1.2 rating and 7.53 million. Body of Proof has increased from a 1.2 rating to a 1.6 rating over the weeks and is consistently scoring around 9 million viewers per episode. Of course Harry’s Law got canceled, it got below a 1.0 rating on 6 episodes and only got a high rating of 1.3.

    @Brandy
    “CsI Miami, CSINY had 8-10 million total viewers but low demo and were cancelled, well CSINY hasnt but its a very big liklehood it will be.”
    These shows are on CBS. Anything that gets below a 1.9 rating is in danger of cancelation. For that network, a 1.2 rating is like a 0.7 rating for ABC. ABC has lower expectations otherwise a lot of shows would be canceled on ABC.

  • Nerdbot

    I watch neither Beauty and the Beast nor The Carrie Diaries, but if I had to renew one of them, it would be the first. Even though they get similar ratings, BatB is (IMH) in a better position, considering that its first season was of 22 episodes and if it does fine in a potential Friday timeslot, it could receive the Nikita treatment and get the 66 extra episodes for syndication. On the other hand, if TCD gets renewed, we could see again what happened years ago, when The CW renewed Life Unexpected for a short second season and then it was canceled and TCD could share that fate, since they are in pretty much the same situation. If The CW is not in the bussiness of losing money, they should cancel both of them; now in the case they really think they have to renew at least one of them, it should be BatB.

    Anyway, the only show I really care about of The CW is Nikita, so I’m hoping they announce the “final season” renewal soon.

  • Ana

    Waiting for the day CW announces that Beauty and the Beast will have a season 2. Oh glorious day that would be!

  • Michael

    I’ve been recording Red Widow, should I not waste my time and just delete the recordings on my DVR? Lol.

  • Nerdbot

    …the extra 44 episodes…

    If Beauty and the Beast is renewed for a full second season, it will need 44 more episodes, not 66.

  • Brandy

    @nerdbot, CD has been getting 0 3_0.4 for six weeks now, BATB has been getting 0 5_0.6, they are not getting the same ratings.

  • Cyrax86

    @Michael, Don’t delete it because it’s going to be cancelled, delete it because it’s a horrible show. ABC’s worst drama in years.

  • Nerdbot

    @Brady

    I may have not made myself clear, but what I really meant was that their ratings have them in a very similar situation. Thanks for clarification in terms of their ratings :)

  • Brandy

    @tommy, yes I know each show is realitive to its networks aversge but you said”no show with high total viewers and low demo has been cancelled”, and I was statng that they had.Holly used Harrys Laws.The fact is Nashville rose the last weeks beating BOP and BoP fell.I think this Wed.BoP had 1.4,Nashville a 1.8,.Week before Nashville had a 1.7,BoP had a 1.5 I think.

  • Melissa

    For me, Beauty and the Beast is on the bubble, but if push came to shove, I’d say it has a better shot at being renewed than cancelled.

  • Tommy

    @brandy

    Yep, thats correct, Nashville has been beating Body of Proof these last 2 weeks, but that show can not even break 6 million viewers and the demo has only risen because of new show HTLWYPFTROYL. Before that show, Nashville got 1.5 and 5.2 million i think. Plus, Body of Proof has won it’s timeslot 3 times in a row these past 3 weeks. When i said no show with high total viewers and a low demo has been canceled – i meant on ABC.

  • Justin121

    I’m in the both Carrie and Beauty will be renewed camp.

  • Melanie

    You know, I’m wondering if HOD on the CW is really as safe as everybody assumes. It was renewed over TSC last year because it was stable — which it is – but its still not good. It didn’t grow at all in S2. Does the CW really want to keep it around for another season and with an S3 renewal around for a defacto S4 for syndication? I don’t know if they do — especially with the apparent rebranding toward SciFi and romantic fantasy.
    Maybe BATB will get a chance at a second season, like HOD did with hopes it stays stable, it fits in with the new ‘theme’ and maybe has the potential to grow a little with the tweaks they’ve made to the cast and storyline. At this point, the CW can hardly blame it for the lack of retention from TVD since nothing they’ve tried there has had great retention (Supernatural, Nikita, TSC and BATB)

  • rehabber

    If Beauty is cancelled, I will not cry, the acting is lame.

  • Batb4ever

    Well, I think that Beauty and the beast should b renewed, because it’s a great show. It has improved so much since the beginning. I’ll b the first to admit that it wasn’t that good.
    I think writers have spend some time finding their way, and boy have they done that. They have created this awesome show, which is a rollercoasterride. You’ll think you know what to expect, but then the twists and turns are just a bit different. It keeps me going back to see the show and episodes, cause now I understand the deeper meaning.
    One main thing I miss in other shows is a “LOVESTORY”, i get that on BATB. I get the ups and downs and You’ll see how their realionship develops, whivh i like.
    So go watch it on CW on April 18 th 8/9C

  • Justin121

    Malibu Country does too well to be cancelled.

    NBC is in no position to cancel Community or Whitney.

    Hannibal and How to Live have done well enough thus far.

    Rules should be renewed but I feel it’ll be cancelled.

    Go On is a true bubble show.

    Body of Proof will be renewed.

    Guys with Kids should be renewed — but won’t.

  • Claudia

    @John A
    It does have a huge Internet fan base, is like the biggest of any new show out there and for some reason hasn’t translated into huge but average ratings YET, but thats a good sign for renewal purposes and the CW knows they can count on that portion of fanbase to promote the show without them putting in more $$$ into promoting the show (ala SPN fandom) and instead of bringing a new show and put in $$$ in promos, so thats an advantage alone for BATB without even consider the rumor the show is a cash cow for the CW since due to the poor budget (as you can tell in the quality of the show) it still brings in passionate fans.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures