Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast:' Will It Be Canceled or Will It Be Renewed?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 14th, 2013

Heart of Darkness

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Other than Cult getting canceled (who didn't see that coming?) no changes to the table below this week.

Will Convention Save Beauty And The Beast?

When it comes to Beauty And The Beast, Bill thinks it's likely to be renewed and I think it's likely to be canceled. For us, that's a wide discrepancy this late in the season. Even last year when we disagreed on the fates of The Secret Circle and Hart Of Dixie in our final guesses, we both had both shows on the bubble/toss-ups for renewal heading into those guesses.

Bill outlines three reasons for the renewal prediction for Beauty And The Beast, but it's only one of them --past scheduling history-- that's the crux of the disagreement. Even within that reasoning, there's only one part of it where we disagree:

1. CW can't cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast without breaking (at least a little) from past scheduling history
2. It's more likely they will renew one of them than break with past history
3. If one has to be renewed, it's Beauty And The Beast.

It's a reasonable position, that may be the correct one. The first item above is a fact and if I agreed with the second item above (I don't), I would certainly agree with the third.

I assume the CW will renew five of its scripted shows and Bill assumes 6.  Whether it's five or six the list of things that the CW absolutely can't do in its fall schedule announcement is short: I don't think it can announce an hour (or hours) of scheduled repeats.*

Would an hour or two of unscripted on CW's fall schedule surprise me? Nope. Five hours of veterans with three hours of new scripted and two hours of unscripted has been done before (as recently as fall 2011**).

Would four new scripted shows launched in the fall surprise me? Yes, but only a little. We're talking 4 vs. the normal 3. It's a difference, but it's not a big difference particularly if CW stays with its staggered schedule approach where most season premieres don't happen in the same week anyway. Plus this year the CW loses two shows (90210 and Gossip Girl) that had four or more seasons. That's the first time that's happened since I've been following things closely From the 2008-2009 season through the 2011-12 season CW either lost no shows that were at least four years old or lost only one.

*It's fine if the CW winds up with an hour or two of scheduled repeats after the season starts, that almost always happens. It's only announcing them in advance that never happens.

**Fall of 2011 launched with only five veterans, but a sixth was renewed (One Tree Hill) and held for mid-season. Fall had two hours of unscripted on the schedule announcement America's Next Top Model and (the quickly canceled and replaced with schedule repeats) H8R.

Prognosis Negative: Presumption of future ratings

If renewed, Beauty and the Beast will no longer air after The Vampire Diaries. From there it's reasonable to assume the ratings will go down and quite likely to The Carrie Diaries levels or worse. Whether you're CW, CBS or an ad buyer, that's the reasonable assumption. I assume CW, CBS and the ad buyers will all make exactly that assumption.

So why do that? There are things to consider from economics to appearances of stability. But in thinking those through, I still don't see it getting renewed unless the ratings start going up when it returns this Thursday.

It's not quite the same as last year's situation with The Secret Circle and Hart Of Dixie where Hart Of Dixie could make a much better either/or case. I understand looking at it and thinking "it's the same either/or choice as last year, only this year the Thursday show will win out!"

Last year it was reasonable for CW to assume Hart Of Dixie's future ratings would be stable if renewed and  and that The Secret Circle's would go down. The landscape is nearly identical between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast with the big exception that The Carrie Diaries isn't a reasonable option with its ratings as low as they are. But because Beauty and the Beast will be moved if renewed it's probably going to wind up with ratings that are at the level of The Carrie Diaries anyway.

If you're in the "but they have to pick one of them!" camp, Beauty and the Beast is likely to be renewed. I'm not in that camp this year. Is the CW?  We only have to wait about a month to find out.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
-

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Cult CW Canceled/Final Season
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Body Of Proof ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty and the Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Glee Fox Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed

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  • Richard Steven Hack

    Robert Seidman: I’m with you on this. Bill is wrong in my opinion.

    “wouldja rather four new shows plus a predicted (but “veteran”) ratings dog, or five new shows?”

    This is the crux of the argument. Why have a ratings dog instead of a new show that almost certainly will do better, at least initially, than BATB? Sure, any or all of the new shows could die like Cult. But most of them won’t. Those are the odds. Most of them will debut with ratings over .8 or .9, and then slowly drift into the usual .6-.7 territory of CW shows. That’s a hell of a lot better than renewing BATB and watching it drift from .5 to .3 over the next season.

    As you say, the CW, CBS Studios and the advertisers can see that coming. So why do it?

    The ONLY reason is IF as claimed the CW CANNOT do it, either because it would “break history” – and at this point in the network’s sad state, WHY SHOULDN’T IT break history – or because it can’t “promote them well”. And that latter is simply speculative and unknowable.

    The CW may be sad enough to “have to” renew BATB but if it does so, it will be a major mistake. And the show definitely will not survive into a syndication renewal for seasons three and four.

  • Claudia

    @mariacristina

    You are right, I wonder why this site TVBTN after being so critical about BATB have been lately putting a lot of articles about the show, hmmmm wonder if they found the way to get more traffic into the site, since for some reason BATB has as many passionate fans that love it as they have haters that bash it. So there always be traffic for a love/hate extreme show.

  • Brandy

    @ CW exsists to getCMelanie, they wont renew BATB over HoD and cancel HoD when HoD gets the same ratings in season two without the best leadin.CW is willing to put up with 0.3_0.4 and lower to get Nikita syndicated.HoD looks pretty good when you look at how badly the new shows besides Arrow are doing .We have yet to see if BATB decines in its last episodes like SC did last yeCar.CW is heading sci fi but that dosent mean they wont want to have one ,only one, non genre show on next season.If CW thinks HoD can get a syndication deal deal to make uo for loss of ad revunue due to low ratings, itll stick around just like Nikita.Futher,its funny you say HoD should be cancelled but BATB renewed With the same demo.CW exsists to get cbt its shows ,cbs shows,wb shows to syndication.They will syndicate as many shows as possible and right now the only up for it are 90210,Nikita,HoD,VD.(VDs on WGNAmerica as is Arrow).HoD may not have great ratings but it is stable which is good.Its also cheap to make,does well online online,does well in w18_34,does well in dvr(0.9_2.0)& at the TCSa Pedowitz said”were pleased with its online,ondemand,dvr preformance and where its headed creativley and its stands out on a tough night..I agree BATB may be renewed and the fact its a genre show,the direction cw is heading, helps.Also about HoD I dont think cw can afford to cancel LA Complex, GzG,90210, Cult,EOMD, possibly both of CD &,BATB plus HoD or just CD,Cult,EOMzd,GG,90210,LA Complex,HoD.I still say BATB honestly could go either way, I wouldnt be suprised either way I highl doubt y BaTB will grow, this season or next.I dont think CW expected HoD to grow cause most shows dont grow past thier first season though the first two seasons are the highest rsted.I think they expected HoD to do what its doing, staying stable.Also Hozd and BATB are basicaly tied for fourth highest cw show.BaTB has not been a procedural in a few episodes and the new character has also been aroung for a few episodes and it hasnt grown.I like both HoD & BATB.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan W: ” TCD is their number 2 most watched show after TVD. If that gives them more money than BATB does…”

    Which it doesn’t. End of story. The only other thing BATB has going for it is $1.5 million per episode in international sales, which is a significant piece of change for a cheap show. TCD can’t match that in online revenue – no way. I don’t think that helps BATB renewal chances much, but it’s much better than TCD.

    TCD is history. Anyone who thinks otherwise is completely delusional.

  • Sapphire

    Seeing that you posted an article about 5 days before this one saying “BATB will likely be renewed” and given that Twitter is FILLED with BATB fans roaring for their show, I have high hopes that BATB WILL get their second (if not more) seasons. Ratings have improved for the show, and the plot is getting better as the show goes on. The only disadvantage is that TVD followers don’t follow this show as much as they expected. If BATB moved to another day, it could have better ratings. Also, since the show is not advertised as much on TV commercials, not many people will tune in if they don’t know what’s going on

  • debsafan

    Love BATB and Golden Boy when something doesn’t do good one night why not move it around and see if it gets more viewers some place else, before you kill it out right. There are shows still on TV I wouldn’t watch if they paid me. Like the Good Wife and Blue Bloods but they are still on. Just give these shows a chance. The acting is good the stories are good.

  • Kartoffel Wunderbar

    There are so many CW fans on this sight. I swear more people comment about how good at .4 Nikia got than when The Big Bang Theory got a 6.4. Maybe its because I don’t watch any CW shows (stopped when they cancelled all their comedies). It seems CW fans bash each others shows, NBC fans called the network heads monkies, ABC fans complain about the Sunday scheduling, and CBS fans talk about how old people matter.

  • Fynn

    @ Richard Steven Hack

    Out of interest where’s your source for saying that Beauty And The Beast commands a total of $1.5 million per episode in international sales? Moreover where’s your source by which you can compare such international revenue, along with the seasonal budgets of other CW shows?

    Your using a un-sourced statistic, one which you can’t possibly place into relevance without far more information on The CW’s shows. Furthermore international revenue will vary each year, its possible the show’s sales will decrease as new contracts are resigned depending on the shows performance (or increase possibly).

  • JQ

    I really am not going to be surprised at whatever the CW does, at least when it comes to BatB and TCD. Zero, one, or both of them being renewed, I can see sound reasoning for all 3 options.

    It’s going to depend on a lot of factors like how much they like their pilots, how much they really care about online viewing, how BatB performs down the stretch, etc.

    But I really can see almost anything happening.

  • Ccemerson

    I’m shocked NBC hasn’t revamped Tuesday after this past week “Ready for Love” BOMBed losing over 10 million viewers from its lead in The Voice. They have extra episodes of Revolution . Double up Revolution Mon10pm/Tuesday 9pm and Hannibal Tuesday 10pm est.

  • Brandy

    @Sapphire, no the ratings havent improved, theyve been at 0 5_0.6 most of the season except five episodes maybe.As for tv commercials, are you kidding?Arrow,Vzd,CD and BATB had the most commericals of cws shows this aeason.Moved to another day, it would,likley do worse as it wouldnt have VD which is helping its ratings and some fans unaware of the move if it were moved.I like BATB but im under no delusions about its chances.

  • Dan S

    On the CBS side I don’t see Roe returning. I do think they’ll add a 1 hr single camer comedy block most likely on Sun.
    My best guess for their all lineup looks like this

    Sun: 7pm 60 minutes, 8pm Crazy Ones, 8:30 Super Clyde, 9pm The Mentalist & 10pm The Good Wife
    Mon: 8pm HIMYM, 8:30 Mom, 9pm 2BG, 9:30 MM & 10pm Beverly Hills Cop
    Tues: 8pm NCIS, 9pm NCIS:LA & 10pm Hostages
    Wed: 8pm Survivor, 9pm CM & 10pm CSI
    Thur: 8pm TBBT, 8:30 2.5 Men, 9pm POI & 10pm Elementary
    Fri: 8pm TAR, 9pm H50 & 10pm BB
    For midseason, Undercover Boss, Intelligence & NCIS: Red

  • Tom

    CW hasn’t said anything about ANTM’s start date; I think we can safely assume its late enough in the summer that it will effectively run through Fall.

    I’ll make my BATB argument even simpler:

    At best, CW still has 5 open slots in Spring. I don’t think they can schedule an hour of repeats at the upfronts.

    Therefore, CW has to have 5 new shows PLUS some spackle ready for Spring.

    Therefore, with, say, 7 spots open, BATB is likely to survive, even if just as a spackle order.

  • BPKK

    @Robert
    “If one has to be renewed, it’s Beauty And The Beast.”

    Nice to see that you have changed your position from 2 weeks ago when you oddly favored the Carrie Diaries renewal with its .4 and under a million viewers over Beauty’s .6 and 1.72 million viewers. At least now you can escape Richard Hack calling you retarded, delusional, or a moron.

    @Robert
    “If renewed, Beauty and the Beast will no longer air after The Vampire Diaries. From there it’s reasonable to assume the ratings will go down and quite likely to The Carrie Diaries levels or worse.”

    Repeats, that’s REPEATS, of Beauty earned 0.3s behind original episodes of Nikita (0.4) on Friday and Dixie (0.6) on Tuesday with its latest Thursday repeat at 0.3/.88 matching the next to last episode of Carrie, so I don’t think ORIGINAL episodes of Beauty would automatically sink to Carrie levels or worse next season.

    @Robert
    “Edit: and I should add (it’s not in the post) though a renewal of Beauty and the Beast wouldn’t shock me, if it is renewed I’ll be pretty surprised if it’s on the fall schedule (replacement/mid-season spackle would not be a big surprise)”
    So now you are saying a renewal wouldn’t shock you, midseason replacement wouldn’t be a big surprise, but you’re leaving the show under cancellation predicted?? Alrighty then

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Tom: it’s a compelling argument, but I am still more swayed by “doing anything else is better.” At least the last couple of years, CW doesn’t get into mid-season scheduling in its upfront announcement, they just list the shows/description. Last year two: Cult/Carrie Diaries, the year before, three: One Tree Hill, Remodeled and “The Frame” (which I’m not sure ever aired).

  • Melanie

    @Brandy Well, I would argue that the decision to keep HOD around in order to get it to syndication hasn’t been made yet. IF it is renewed for a 3rd season, then, yes, CBS & WB have made the committment — as WB did for Nikita last year. What I’m saying is that maybe we shouldn’t think of it as a sure thing just because of the Nikita situation. How many shows do WB or CBS studios want to foot the bill for in order to have them limping along to syndication? Without a bottom line to look at, we can’t really answer that question.
    This season they got rid of two older and more expensive shows (GG & 90210)– If they can afford it, I think they’d be better off rolling the dice on some new shows that might do at least as well as Arrow, rather than keeping BATB, TCD or HOD around.

  • The End

    @Kartoffel Wunderbar
    @There are so many CW fans on this sight.

    That’s how it’s always been here. Mostly why I don’t give opinions on a shows renewal chances on this network on a typical ratings release, too many angry people defending their shows from what I can see. That said only Arrow interests me on the network. Though the show itself was easy to predict, for example Oliver Queens fighting style resembles more Yao Feis, than Wilsons. So you knew he would get training from him eventually, or someone close to him, and lo and behold.

  • Ultima

    @Ccemerson
    I’m shocked NBC hasn’t revamped Tuesday after this past week “Ready for Love” BOMBed

    Ready for Love might be DOA, but it still had the best numbers for NBC in that timeslot since January.

    If the show drops significnatly next week, NBC might consider replacing it with repeats for sweeps, but there’s no chance they pull it at this point.

  • lll

    I actually see both BATB and TCD cancelled; why else would they leave ANTM off the summer schedule and have them air late August-late November?

    Anyway it all depends on what the pilots look like, and CW has the best overall pilots of all the networks (just like last year). The Originals and Tommarrow People are almost shoo-ins for the fall schedule. The Selection, Reign, Oxygen and The 100 have a chance to get picked up as well; two can be for fall, two for mid-season. Done.

  • lll

    To add to my post, The Selection and Reign will fight for the third fall schedule slot, Oxygen and the 100 will fight for the fourth and final fall schedule slot. One of them can come mid-season in ANTM slot (if it’s not renewed for mid-season). The other can be a backup show when a show fails. If ANTM comes back mid-season, two shows can be backup. The way this year and last year happened with pilots (showing reruns or airing all episodes with terrible ratings), they are going to need two backup shows.

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