Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast:' Will It Be Canceled or Will It Be Renewed?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 14th, 2013

Heart of Darkness

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Other than Cult getting canceled (who didn't see that coming?) no changes to the table below this week.

Will Convention Save Beauty And The Beast?

When it comes to Beauty And The Beast, Bill thinks it's likely to be renewed and I think it's likely to be canceled. For us, that's a wide discrepancy this late in the season. Even last year when we disagreed on the fates of The Secret Circle and Hart Of Dixie in our final guesses, we both had both shows on the bubble/toss-ups for renewal heading into those guesses.

Bill outlines three reasons for the renewal prediction for Beauty And The Beast, but it's only one of them --past scheduling history-- that's the crux of the disagreement. Even within that reasoning, there's only one part of it where we disagree:

1. CW can't cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast without breaking (at least a little) from past scheduling history
2. It's more likely they will renew one of them than break with past history
3. If one has to be renewed, it's Beauty And The Beast.

It's a reasonable position, that may be the correct one. The first item above is a fact and if I agreed with the second item above (I don't), I would certainly agree with the third.

I assume the CW will renew five of its scripted shows and Bill assumes 6.  Whether it's five or six the list of things that the CW absolutely can't do in its fall schedule announcement is short: I don't think it can announce an hour (or hours) of scheduled repeats.*

Would an hour or two of unscripted on CW's fall schedule surprise me? Nope. Five hours of veterans with three hours of new scripted and two hours of unscripted has been done before (as recently as fall 2011**).

Would four new scripted shows launched in the fall surprise me? Yes, but only a little. We're talking 4 vs. the normal 3. It's a difference, but it's not a big difference particularly if CW stays with its staggered schedule approach where most season premieres don't happen in the same week anyway. Plus this year the CW loses two shows (90210 and Gossip Girl) that had four or more seasons. That's the first time that's happened since I've been following things closely From the 2008-2009 season through the 2011-12 season CW either lost no shows that were at least four years old or lost only one.

*It's fine if the CW winds up with an hour or two of scheduled repeats after the season starts, that almost always happens. It's only announcing them in advance that never happens.

**Fall of 2011 launched with only five veterans, but a sixth was renewed (One Tree Hill) and held for mid-season. Fall had two hours of unscripted on the schedule announcement America's Next Top Model and (the quickly canceled and replaced with schedule repeats) H8R.

Prognosis Negative: Presumption of future ratings

If renewed, Beauty and the Beast will no longer air after The Vampire Diaries. From there it's reasonable to assume the ratings will go down and quite likely to The Carrie Diaries levels or worse. Whether you're CW, CBS or an ad buyer, that's the reasonable assumption. I assume CW, CBS and the ad buyers will all make exactly that assumption.

So why do that? There are things to consider from economics to appearances of stability. But in thinking those through, I still don't see it getting renewed unless the ratings start going up when it returns this Thursday.

It's not quite the same as last year's situation with The Secret Circle and Hart Of Dixie where Hart Of Dixie could make a much better either/or case. I understand looking at it and thinking "it's the same either/or choice as last year, only this year the Thursday show will win out!"

Last year it was reasonable for CW to assume Hart Of Dixie's future ratings would be stable if renewed and  and that The Secret Circle's would go down. The landscape is nearly identical between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast with the big exception that The Carrie Diaries isn't a reasonable option with its ratings as low as they are. But because Beauty and the Beast will be moved if renewed it's probably going to wind up with ratings that are at the level of The Carrie Diaries anyway.

If you're in the "but they have to pick one of them!" camp, Beauty and the Beast is likely to be renewed. I'm not in that camp this year. Is the CW?  We only have to wait about a month to find out.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
-

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Cult CW Canceled/Final Season
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Body Of Proof ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty and the Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Glee Fox Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed

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  • TheFrenchGuy

    I think Beauty and the Beast will be Renewed. Last year, The Secret Circle was canceled but things changed.
    What CW really needs is Comedy. I think it would help the network on Monday or Tuesday from 8 to 9.

  • Amy

    I’m going with BATB for renewal. It could be moved to Fridays and paired with Nikita.

  • Kale g

    Ok so question. Is it at the Upfronts, that networks have to unveil their new shows for the Fall? I know it’s right around this time, going into may, when we find out specifically from networks which shows they renewed and the ones they haven’t, and then we normally get a video that highlights their new shows for the next tv year. Just wondering when that is suppose to happen

  • Nikki

    They both should be cancelled. Both have terrible ratings, terrible acting.. but the CW does things weird so noone can really predict what they will do. Who knows they might renew both of them. They suck. lol i guess we have to wait and see.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Ok so question. Is it at the Upfronts, that networks have to unveil their new shows for the Fall? I know it’s right around this time, going into may, when we find out specifically from networks which shows they renewed and the ones they haven’t, and then we normally get a video that highlights their new shows for the next tv year. Just wondering when that is suppose to happen

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2013/02/15/when-will-you-know-if-your-favorite-show-is-canceled-or-renewed-4/169582/

  • person

    ABC cancels Red Widow, BOP (barring tax credit craziness), HE (moves to cable), and Neighbors (you guys are all getting this last one wrong)
    CBS cancels CSI NY, Golden Boy, Vegas, and ROE
    CW cancels BATB and TCD
    FOX cancels Touch and Cleveland
    NBC cancels 1600 Penn, GWK, UAN, TNN, Deception, Smash, and Whitney

    HTLWYP and Hannibal renewed if they stay above 2.0 (with MF repeat as lead-in) and 1.2 respectively. Everything else is renewed.

  • Kale g

    Thanks Bill!

  • Carl

    Harry’s Law on NBC was winning its Saturday night time slot. They went with their lower rated comedies, hoping to snag a younger demographic target. It did not work for them, as Whitney and Up All Night were down in the ratings all season. And, NBC would have been better off with Harry’s ratings! Hopefully, CW is weighing their options and do not dud out like NBC did with Harry’s Law. CW does not need super high ratings, but they certainly need much more than what they are now getting with all of their low rated programs! Younger people just do not watch TV like the Harry’s Law crowd. Most people are not aware of any of CW’s programs.

  • Cassie

    I think 1600 Penn should go and the following should stay

  • Cassie

    Why do you even care about 1600 Penn the show is pathetic and it deserves to go and the following deserves to stay

  • Kavyn

    Anyone here saying BATB will be renewed and moved to (not Friday) clearly don’t understand BATB’s position right now.

  • I heart Ryan Hardy

    The following should be renewed it has the best plot line that I have ever seen

  • Kavyn

    @person if ABC expands Fridays to a 2 hour comedy block, then The Neighbours and HTLWYP will both probably get renewed and moved there with LMS/MC.

  • jessica

    Jonay
    If Hannibal does well next week wouldn’t it be smart of NBC to change its season finale date from June to may and hold off the remaining episodes until next year????

    Do you realise that you are asking that episodes NOT be shown? Further, the design of Hannibal is 13 episodes each spring. If you start asking for 8 or 9 then you will have like what CBS did to Flashpoint — the season finale being in the middle of a broadcast cycle and a non-climactic end which NBC would have to claim is the season finale when any intelligent person would know they are lying. It isn’t an NBC original series so that would mean NBC and American viewers would fall behind the rest of the world. It’s a Gaumont show made for Sony’s AXN that NBC picked up. NBC sort of did that with The Firm and fans of that show didn’t have too many kind words for the two or three week delays NBC thought to be a good idea while fans in Singapore were calm and carried on with the new episodes.

    Holly & Robert,
    There aren’t that many Canadian shows to pick from.
    Reelz took Cracked, XIII, and Bomb Girls.
    ABC took Motive and rookie blue.
    The CW took Beauty & The Beast.
    BBCA took Orphan Black and Copper.
    Syfy took Lost Girl, Being Human, Haven, and Continuum.
    DirecTV took Call Me Fitz and Rogue.
    History took Vikings.
    Showtime took The Borgias.
    GMC took Heartland (and re-sorted the show into new ‘seasons’)
    Science Channel took Mantracker.
    TLC took Undercover Boss Canada.

    That leaves existing shows Blackstone, Mr D, Arctic Air, Republic Of Doyle, Murdoch Mysteries, Seed, Saving Hope, and The Listener … and the forth-coming Satisfaction, Played, and Bitten.

  • person

    @Kavyn

    The Neighbors averaged a 1.9 including the series premiere, a 1.8 since the series premiere, and a 1.7 in the spring, hitting 1.4, 1.4, and 1.5 for the last three episodes. The 1.4s were with the Middle as a repeat at 1.2 and 1.3, which is close to the lead in the show would get on a Friday. I suspect ABC aired the Neighbors after the Middle repeats to measure the true audience for the show for a Wednesday.

    Using the 70% Friday rule, 70% of the average would be a 1.2, while 70% of the true audience average would be 1.0. A 1.0 would be the weakest link in the TGIF line-up. ABC can do better launching a new show.

  • Holly

    @Jessica,

    That leaves existing shows Blackstone, Mr D, Arctic Air, Republic Of Doyle, Murdoch Mysteries, Seed, Saving Hope, and The Listener … and the forth-coming Satisfaction, Played, and Bitten.

    Setting aside the half-hour comedies, Bitten is the only one of those I can see working on the CW, assuming they aren’t already working on a deal with Syfy.

  • Kavyn

    @person wasn’t MC getting 1.0-1.2 ratings? I’m pretty sure The Neighbours will be around the same, especially if they put it after HTLWYP.

  • person

    @Kavyn

    MC averaged 1.4, hitting a low of 1.1 twice, while LMS averaged 1.5 hitting a low of 1.3 twice.

    It seems you are suggesting ABC have comedy on Wed/Fri like this:

    Wed: The Middle, Suburgatory, MF, New Comedy
    Fri: LMS, MC, HTLWYP, Neighbors

    My point is that Friday line-up would be better with LMS, MC, HTLWYP, and a new comedy, especially if ABC only has one other new comedy for the Fall. ABC could put the Neighbors on another night like Tuesday in a one hour block, but again, a new comedy would do better there.

  • Melissa

    So far, How to Live With Your Parents has scored a 2.9 and a 2.5. It will probably continue to fall, but if it manages to stay above 2.0, why the hell would ABC move it to Friday? :roll:

  • CH2164

    a little off topic but does anyone know how we can watch the up fronts live?

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