CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Still Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 16th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


bored-bear-animal-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 14, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.93
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.97

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Like many of the Cancellation Bear's weekly posts at this point in the season, the CW predictions haven't changed (other than Cult being officially canceled last week) and the bear's just going over old ground.

Although the cancellation bear disagrees with Bubble Watch over the fate of Beauty & The Beast (enraged fans, please direct your rage appropriately), there is no disagreement about the fate of The Carrie Diaries. It's still likely to be canceled.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Brandy

    @Katie, I doubt hed be joking about this though.Craig will deny til May when Mark announces it.

  • were123

    I’ve seen on many websites that Beauty and the beast is in track for renewal. It seems the CW doesn’t want to start with less than 6 hour of scripted dramas next season. Also, Nikita will be renewed, but it might just get a final 10 episodes season.
    As for Nikita’s report, it doesn’t make much sense, because it would end with 76 episodes for syndication, 12 episodes shy of 88, but I could understand if CW is trying to avoid lossing lots of money on the show, and decide to give it a proper ending and then try sell it with 76 episodes (which isn’t bad, but not specially good for syndication).
    As for Beauty and the beast it seems to be on the same position Nikita was on its 1st season. Nikita ended its first season with a 0.6 rating and then got moved to Friday. Beauty and the beast will likely follow. The question is, will the fanbase follow? If so, the show may survive past season 2.
    HoD is to stay, TCD will go and CW is going to get many fatasy/sci-fi pilots, which means I might have a reason to watch the network’s shows (other than Arrow :D)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Were123: I’ll repeat: The CW is not selling Nikita. WBTV is. As long as they give the CW a low enough license fee, there is no motivation for the CW is either drop Nikita or air a shortened season.

    Also, Nikita ended its first season with a .9 season average, not .6. It ended season two with a .5.

    You put BATB on Friday, it will do a .4 season average – about the same as Nikita in seasons two and three. It’s ridiculous.

  • Charmed

    I still think TCD has a shot. Mark knows that all of the shows have bad ratings and would be cancelled on any other network, so he looks at things like online streaming, Twitter etc. and TCD is doing well on those, it’s the second most watched show on the site.

  • starship

    People wondering about the Nikita reports, should really stop speculating, yes I’d love it if it got a full season, but we should be happy with however number of episodes it gets because the ratings are terrible (and it does nothing when DVR gets factored in). There’s nothing magical about 88 episodes, its just what Bill calls it, 88 just means 4 standard 22 episode seasons. At the end of it all whether it 77, 80, or 88, if someone is willing to syndicate the show, it won’t make any difference.

    @Charmed
    Online viewing can only do so much. When a show gets low ratings like HoD and BatB, but does well online/DVR that can sway the decision. The Carrie Diaries is way too low in the ratings for that to factor in any way.

  • Charmed

    @Starship TCD only does 0.1-0.2 less than HOD and BATB, that isn’t much of a difference. To separate shows which do almost equally bad ratings, he looks at other factors, so that might help TCD. I’m not saying it will be renewed, I’m just saying I think has more of a chance than people here think it does.

  • Mary

    @starship: i agree with you, TCD is too low in ratings, only higher than Cult. And talk about online viewers and fans, I don’t think it’s the most important part, i think the ratings is more important

  • starship

    @Charmed

    It might not be much of a difference, but it’s their only way of differentiating between their shows. Arrow has fallen to 0.9 recently, VD to 1.0, Supernatural to 1.0, but they’re renewed already. BATB is at 0.6 currently, while HoD has fallen to 0.5 (but is in season 2). Nikita is at 0.3 (but it is just getting the farewell season next year, so that doesn’t factor in). They do have to draw the line somewhere, though, and can’t renew everything, a show that’s at 0.4 and only had 13 episodes doesn’t stand a chance to remain on air. Only way for that to happen is if at least 6 out of the 8 pilots suck terribly, and going by early reports that’s not the case.

  • bobby

    I want Beauty and the Beast cancelled, mainly for the reason it’s in The Secret Circle’s old spot.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    starship: “There’s nothing magical about 88 episodes”

    What part of MONEY don’t you get? WBTV got Fox to renew Fringe for another short season just to get to 100 episodes despite equally crappy ratings for Fringe’s fourth season which gave them their 88 episodes already.

    I repeat: As long as the CW has nothing better to replace Nikita with – and they don’t – and WBTV offers the CW a low enough license fee, the CW will continue to give Nikita a full season.

    The Web sites claiming a short season – have ANY of them offered a REASON for that? Do any of them know anything about syndication? All of this “we heard” stuff is just speculation and based on nothing concrete from anyone except speculation.

    And it’s picked up by people here who’s only motivation is to try to claim some “inside” knowledge because, frankly, they don’t like the show but don’t have the nerve to say so.

  • Amanda

    CW posted a new promo on their Youtube channel, titled “TV Now CW Spring Sizzle” and The Carrie Diaries is nowhere to be seen.

  • Brandy

    @RSH, it dosent matter if they have something to replace Nikita with or something that will do better than it or not.Fri a dead night for tv,CW at least dosent care what ratings it gets on fri.Repeats do the same z0.3-0.4 demo some of the time and are cheaper,Top Mdel did the same or better(a couple 0.5-0.6) than Nikita.Heck, OHSit matched Nikita’s 0.4 and is cheaper to make, they could put reruns or reality shows on fri for less money than Nikita.CW knows nothing is gonna well on fri but they don’t care cause it’s a dead tv night and they have other nights to worry about.A repeat of a Justin Timberlake music special matched Nikita’s 0.4.
    Secondly, these sites don’t just make stuff up otherwise they’d be sued and they don’t base thier intell on whether or not they like a show.This time last year, they were saying GG would get a short final season and that’s what happened.Deadline and tvline were dead on last season about SC and Ringer being cancelled,Nikita,HoD renewed whereas tithe other sites had it the other way around.Why don’t you email tvline or deadline and ask them if they know about syndication (since they talk about tv i imagine they do) or what they’re sources are?
    Third, shows can be and have been syndicated with less than 88 episodes-The Unit 69,Leverage 77,Veronica Mars 66,Flashpoint 75,Til Death 81,Ugly Betty 85.If it has to be exactly 88,how did Leverage,Flashpoint,Til Death,a ugly Betty not get short final seasons to get there? Community wiill have 84 episodes at the end of this season, but has a syndication deal but may get cancelled du to low ratings.WB must believe or know they know they syndicate Nikita with fewer than 88 ,otherwise there wouldn’t be talk of a short final season.
    Thrd, you don’t work at CW or WB so you don’t know for sure what’ll happen. Just wait til May 16,then well know.
    Finally, a short season would eliminate hiatueses which hurt Nikita’s ratings to keep them from bottoming further,save them money,Pedowitz is big believer in final short season for closure for fans and that would happen,Craig would be able to concentrate on his new show,10 episodes would be enough time to wrap everything up,fans would still get a proper series finale and another season and other shows could timeslots share on Fri,and it would get a low rated show off the air,and WBcould still syndicate it.As Starship said and others have said “there’s nothing magical about 88″.It seems as long as a show is very close to 88 and has a beginning,middle,end to the story to sell DVDs and sell in syndication,a show can be syndicated with less than 88.If Czw can syndicate Nikita(probably in Aisia) with 77-80 episodes, why wouldn’t they do that?Why keep it on longer if they can syndicate it with less than 88?You aren’t working at CW or WB or a network possibly buying it, so you don’t know WB can’t syndicate it with less than 88.

  • starship

    @ RSH
    You’re the one trying to seem like an insider with your talks of how if the studio are making the show on the cheap, the CW will keep broadcasting it because they’ll make their money back in syndication (while you have zero evidence for that). Frankly, if the EP can’t slash the budget per episode, it’s very likely that the CW will just slash the episode order, simple as that. If the series can truly be syndicated, they’ll do it with however many episodes they get, as I said 88 is just an ideal number being thrown around here…not a prerequisite for syndication…as for the part about having nothing to replace it with, that’s just another assumption on your part. They can easily move a struggling new/old show there mid-season, it will still be able to pull 0.2s, i.e. Nikita’s 4th season ratings. They can launch reality, they can have repeats, there are plenty of options. I love Nikita, but once it’s got around 80 episodes, the only reason for them to keep it around would be if they don’t have another show that can give them 0.2s and 0.3s or higher. And I’m sure they can wrap the story as long as they know how much time they’ve got.

    Anyway, I never claimed the reports are true, I’ve got no way of knowing that, but I’m not going to be one bit surprised if the show gets less than 22 episodes.

  • Brandy

    @RSH, also repeats of 7 year old Christmas specials got 0 5 to Nikitas 0.3 back in Nov or Dec.

  • Rachel

    @Amanda

    TCD is done for the season so there is no reason to place it in there.

  • Monica

    @Brandy

    The CW doesn’t have an infinitely long list of specials and reruns to air on Fridays. Reruns cost money, and the network would probably prefer to use reruns in the actual slot that the show is in. For example, the CW has aired Arrow reruns on Wednesday, but has aired very few reruns in other slots. They aired a couple on Friday in the fall to promote the show, but other than that, they’ve been holding on to reruns so that they can air them over the summer. This is similar to how CBS does reruns, always in the same slot so that people can tune in to a familiar show at a familiar time.

    If this weren’t the case, the CW would fill their schedule with Vampire Diaries or Supernatural reruns. But they don’t. Hart of Dixie can move to Fridays for the 2014-15 season, but for the 2013-14 season, there doesn’t seem like much else the CW can air on Fridays instead of Nikita. That’s why it makes so little sense to have a shortened season. Yes, Warner Bros COULD syndicate the show with less than 88 episodes, but the more episodes they have, the better. In Finance this is known as discounted cash flow, and it explains why Warner Bros would offer the show at a low license fee to incentivize the CW to renew it.

  • mkat

    @Amanda:- <>

    That TCD, whose season ended before the spring schedule, is not included in the ‘Spring Sizzler’, means nothing. However, the fact that it had already been dropped from this promo when it first began airing in late March (as the ‘TV Now Revised Promo’), was kind of indicative of the way things are most likely to go for the ailing show.
    TCD is apparently doing okay online with N. American teens (who no longer watch programs on traditional/old-fashion TV sets), but has had difficulty finding an overseas market – and the CW exists to sell series to overseas and syndication markets.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I’ll repeat: People here just want Nikita off the air, so they’ll make up any fantasy to make people believe it will go off the air and try to establish themselves as “master predictors”.

    Anything is possible, of course, including a short final Nikita season. “Possible” is not “probable”, however. The odds favor a full final season for Nikita.

    And the reason the odds do that is MONEY, as usual. The studio and the network could easily predict Nikita’s present ratings when they renewed it for season three. They can just as easily predict next season’s ratings. If they renewed it for season three, there’s no reason not to renew it for season four. Syndication revenue hinges on the number of episodes – a smaller number of episodes makes it harder to syndicate the show and reduces the revenue overall when it is syndicated. This is simple economics.

    You can’t argue that Friday is a dead night where the ratings don’t matter and then claim Nikita’s predicted low ratings for season four will force a short season. That’s contradictory.

    As for whether a struggling new show could be moved to Fridays mid-season to replace Nikita and get higher ratings, again that makes no sense. A struggling new season one show might get higher ratings, but the syndication revenue from Nikita would be damaged. That makes no economic sense since the entire point of syndication revenue is that it continues for a long time. Damaging year after year revenue to spare the network some revenue loss for one season wouldn’t be smart.

    I remind people that WBTV and CBSTudios OWN the CW and that the CW does what they want, as long as it doesn’t damage the overall profit picture of the network (and the only way they’re making money right now is the Netflix deal which still isn’t clear.) The whole point of the CW is to make money from alternative media distribution in which syndication is the main revenue generator.

    We’ll know in three weeks if not sooner. If Nikita is renewed for 22-episodes, the Nikita haters here will just have to deal with it. But it won’t stop them from bitching about Nikita for the entire next season.

  • JJA

    I don’t care how long a Nikita season 4 is. I just want a season 4!!

    Frankly, in terms of plot, Nikita can wrap-up nicely in just 10 episodes. It doesn’t need a full season, which would be mostly filler anyway.

  • Brandy

    @Melaine, that’s true and I know that.When a network buys a show they pay to air a episode three times, one original & two reruns.If reruns were too expensive, I doubt wed be having 1-2 hours of them this season instead of original programming.Until 3 years ago or so, CW fri nights was a rerun night, so again ,it couldn’t be too exspensive.My point was that the reality/game shows,repeats,specials do the same ratings as a new Nikita for a fraction of the cost.SomePeople on fantasay schedules believe CW will continue with an hour of repeats next season.

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