NBC: 'Hannibal' Is Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 16th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


hannibal_bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 14, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Community :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Hannibal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
The Office final season 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.63
Up All Night :oops: ?

-
So much for the Cancellation Bear devouring rookie drama Hannibal with a nice Chianti and some fava beans. The show's second episode ratings increased vs. its premiere. The bear doesn't care that it was against repeats on CBS and ABC, a 1.7 rating (or a 1.6, or a 1.5, and likely lower) points to certain renewal on the ratings train wreck that is NBC.

"Still dodging predictions for many NBC sitcoms?" you say. "Yes!" says the bear. Fear not, as gunshy as he is on his biggest source of prediction error this season, the bear will go with up or down predictions on every show no later than May 7.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

-
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jacksonville

    Great news! Hannibal is the best show on Network Television.
    People need to watch it.

  • Carmen

    Hannibal is certain to be renewed?

    Yep, on NBC it could drop to 1.4 and still be in the “likely” category.

    Which would still mean it will be a (certain) renewed (On NBC).

  • Bud the Couch Spud

    Uber-dark, gore and violence seems to be the order of the day with shows like Hannibal, The Following and Bates Motel. Not my bag, but somebody seems to be diggin’ it.

  • senor chang

    This just made my day. And it’s only 12:56 AM where I live.

  • senor chang

    @Bud The Couch Spud
    I hate gory entertainment (and especially horror films), but I’m finding Hannibal surprisingly refreshing. The show focuses a lot more on the psychological weight of the violence than you’d expect.

    I don’t know if you’d be into it, but if you haven’t I’d suggest you at least give the pilot episode a fair shake.

  • Wright

    Good for Hannibal. Hannibal, Grimm and Revolution are the only good shows on the network.

  • Dan S

    I too see Hannibal returning just not in the fall. I could see it timesharing with Dracula which I understand will likely be on the fall schedule. I could see Community coming back because of syndication but Go On as a freshman series is finished. I don’t expect Whitney to return either & why isn’t UAN already cancelled ?

  • Dan

    NBC is easy to figure out with dramasbut comedies are harder to figure out

    Dramas SVU, Parenthod, Grimm, Revolution, Chicago Fire, and Hannibal (should numbers hold up) are all returning

    As for comedies only Parks & Rec and Go On are definites. NBC could renew Community (for a final year) and Whitney or cancel them both, they can get away with cancelling everything else.

  • Bro

    The bear is insane. There’s a bunch of shows that seemed quite stable on week 2 and then sank. Also, Hanninal is going to air until late June, so I don’t think its possible for this show to save good ratings.

  • Percysowner

    @Bro The bear can only go by the numbers it has, not by what “a bunch of other shows” have done in the past. The prediction is based on current ratings, not speculative ratings.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The bear is insane. There’s a bunch of shows that seemed quite stable on week 2 and then sank. Also, Hanninal is going to air until late June, so I don’t think its possible for this show to save good ratings.”

    The decision to renew (or cancel) Hannibal will come no later than early May, so its ratings past that point are completely irrelevant. It has at *most* 4 more episodes before the decision is made.

    “@Bro The bear can only go by the numbers it has, not by what “a bunch of other shows” have done in the past. The prediction is based on current ratings, not speculative ratings.”

    That too. ;)

  • bob

    stupid

  • Bro

    @Bill Gorman
    Don’t you think NBC may postpone the decision to see what will happen with the show in June? Like CBS did with Rules of Engagement a year ago.

  • TVDude

    Let’s not forget the time slot Hannibal is in. NBC’s expectations were low and Hannibal delivered in the tough slot.

    It will probably fall this week with no new Office to prop the night up, but we shall see. Even if it falls, I doubt it will be enough to be concerned and it would also be understandable.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Don’t you think NBC may postpone the decision to see what will happen with the show in June?”

    No.

    “Like CBS did with Rules of Engagement a year ago.”

    You are confused. CBS didn’t postpone their decision, they’d decided to renew the show and contractual wrangling went longer than expected.

  • gerry

    bwaahahahaha at that image!!! LOLZ

  • Bro

    @Bill Gorman
    OK, thank you :)

  • CBSviewer

    My guess for newt season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – Wonderland (13-20 episodes)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    9:00 – Parenthood (15 episodes)
    10:00 – Revolution (24 episodes)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Whitney (13 episodes)
    8:30 – Divorce: A Love Story (13-22 episodes)
    9:00 – Chicago Fire (24 episodes)
    10:00 – After Hours (13-24 episodes)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Community (13 episodes)
    8:30 – Go On (22 episodes)
    9:00 – Parks & Recreations (24 episodes)
    9:30 – About a Boy (13-22 episodes)
    10:00 – Law & Order: SVU (24 episodes)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Dateline
    9:00 – Grimm (22 episodes)
    10:00 – Dracula (13 episodes) / Hannibal (13 episodes)

    Thoughts ?

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Wow, NBC is REALLY set for next season as far as dramas are concerned. SVU, Grimm, Parenthood, Revolution, Chicago Fire and now Hannibal. I’d say out of all the networks they’ve made the best progress with dramas this season.

    Now, for comedies. What a disaster. At this point I would think NBC would renew Parks for a full season, and renew half seasons for Community and Go On (and tout the Community season as their final season). Cancel the rest. Next season they need to be (mostly) all new.

  • Max Vrany

    @bro, NBC will announce its fall and (very) tentative mid-season schedule mid-May. They can’t postpone that.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures