NBC: 'Hannibal' Is Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 16th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


hannibal_bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 14, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Community :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Hannibal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
The Office final season 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.63
Up All Night :oops: ?

-
So much for the Cancellation Bear devouring rookie drama Hannibal with a nice Chianti and some fava beans. The show's second episode ratings increased vs. its premiere. The bear doesn't care that it was against repeats on CBS and ABC, a 1.7 rating (or a 1.6, or a 1.5, and likely lower) points to certain renewal on the ratings train wreck that is NBC.

"Still dodging predictions for many NBC sitcoms?" you say. "Yes!" says the bear. Fear not, as gunshy as he is on his biggest source of prediction error this season, the bear will go with up or down predictions on every show no later than May 7.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

-
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Tim

    In the comedy department, Parks and Rec, Go On, and Community (with a shortened final season) will be renewed, Whitney could be as well. I don’t see Up All Night or The New Normal being renewed, and 1600 Penn and Guys With Kids will most certainly be cancelled.

  • Spen B

    @Oliver

    Bringing into consideration the Friday Factor, lead-in, and spring ratings erosion, I would say Grimm is a better performer than Parenthood. Plus, Grimm is a younger show with theoretically more potential to grow.

  • Nick

    @Ellen

    NBC is in the unique position where its terrible comedy ratings are inflating its drama index. Let me show you. Here are the average ratings for NBC dramas (as of April 14)

    Revolution: 2.9
    Parenthood: 1.8
    Chicago Fire: 1.8
    Law & Order: SVU: 1.7
    Hannibal: 1.7
    Grimm: 1.6
    Deception: 1.3

    Here’s what the Renew/Cancel Index would be if it were solely dramas:

    Revolution: 1.61
    Chicago Fire: 1.00
    Parenthood: 1.00
    (NBC Drama Average: 1.8)
    Law & Order: SVU: 0.94
    Hannibal: 0.94
    Grimm: 0.89
    Deception: 0.72

    You can see, it makes a big difference. Deception goes from being in likely renewal territory to likely cancellation. And with it being NBC’s lowest drama, there is definitely justification for it being certain to be cancelled.

  • v

    It has to do with NBC dramas doing better than comedies.
    Deception has just a placeholder for Revolution.
    A lot of the actors have moved on already to other shows.

  • omabin

    I think this is what NBC’s schedule should look like:

    Monday
    The Voice
    The Voice
    The Sixth Gun

    Tuesday
    The Voice
    Believe
    Revolution

    Wednesday
    The Biggest Looser/ Parenthood
    The Biggest Looser/ After Hours [Post Olympics Launch and Promo Effort]
    Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    Community
    Parks and Recreation
    New Comedy
    New Comedy
    Law and Order: SVU

    Friday [Lineup to start in Halloween only so as to avoid hiatus in winter and to concentrate promotional efforts on post voice leadouts and thursday 2 comedies. Air repeats of believe and the sixth gun here until then. Also, it takes advantage of Halloween season, which fits these shows]
    Dateline
    Grimm
    Hannibal

    Note that there is no need (and no possibility) for the biggest looser to be used a filler in between the voice cycles next year, as they have the olympics.

  • senor chang

    Looks like week two of Hannibal went from a 1.67 to a 2.62 in Live+3. Nearly a full point rise–and a bigger rise than the premiere saw.

    This show is looking more and more solid.

  • bjssp

    @senor change:

    I’m calling it: if it is stable this week, it’ll be renewed, perhaps pretty quickly. If it rises again, it’s basically a sure thing.

  • Alex

    On the subject of NBC’s schedule for next season I think people need to factor in the Winter Olympics a little more.

    The Winter Olympics run from February 7 – February 23 this I suspect means a few things. Firstly I’d guess NBC will split their season into two halves September – December and then March – May. Presumably they won’t have a whole lot on the air in January because it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to do that when you’re going to have to shut down throughout February anyway. A good guess would be that The Sing-Off will be the primary focus of NBC come January with not much else. The Olympics also mean we won’t see a Voice/Biggest Loser/Voice cycle on Monday nights this year. The Biggest Loser ran January-March this year. Obviously it can’t do that next year. That presumably means they’ll need a new slot for it next season.

    My best guess on NBC for next season (I don’t think they’re going to change a whole lot)

    September – December
    Monday: The Voice / New Drama
    Tuesday: The Voice / Revolution / Parenthood
    Wednesday: New Comedy / New Comedy / Law & Order: SVU / Chicago Fire
    Thursday: Parks & Rec / New Comedy / MFJ / New Comedy / Dracula
    Friday: New Unscripted / Grimm / Rock Center
    Saturday: Repeats
    Sunday: Sunday Night Football

    January & February
    The Sing-Off and Winter Olympics

    March – May
    Monday: The Voice / New Drama
    Thursday: The Voice / Revolution / Parenthood
    Wednesday: New Comedy / New Comedy / Law & Order: SVU / Chicago Fire
    Thursday: Parks & Rec / New Comedy / MJF / New Comedy / Hannibal
    Friday: New Unscripted / Gimm / Rock Center
    Saturday: Repeats
    Sunday: Dateline / The Biggest Loser / New Drama

  • Greg

    @The End

    Didn’t know that, so Hannibal should probably go to midseason and NBC can try another new drama on Thursdays at 10 (maybe the Chicago Fire spin-off).

  • davie

    May be a little off topic, but I was surprised to not see a post about it.

    I wonder if NBCUniversal will actually sell the rights to Heroes to Microsoft who is wanting to reboot the show.

    It’s got to have them thinking whether or not they should sell or reboot the show themselves. It’d be odd to see Heroes back on NBC though, right? I hope they sell the rights…I don’t think Universal has any faith in the franchise, maybe Microsoft can handle it better. Release a game or two to tie into the show

  • Fred

    @Alex

    I like your schedule. However I would rather see ROCK CENTER moved away from 20/20 or canceled. It simply can’t compete. Ratings are not worthy, even on a low expectation 10:00 Friday slot.
    Also in the spring you put a scripted drama on Sunday after Biggest Loser. Does that mean you think NBC will cancel Celebrity Apprentice? I know its not a hit anymore, but I think it does well enough.

  • Narciso

    I am so happy to hear this. It’s the best new show on TV.

  • omabin

    I actually don’t think NBC comedies are that hard to figure out at this point anymore. My guesses are:
    - Parks, Community: Renewed
    - The New Normal, Guys with Kids, 1600 Penn, Whitney: Canceled
    - Go On: This is the only one I still see as very bubblish. I go back and forth on it. I say maybe it gets a 13 eps tryout in Community’s spot to later be taken over by Community come midseason, but it really could go either way.

    A Whitney renewal wouldn’t shock me either, but I think it is unlikely at this point.

  • bjssp

    I know some are skeptical of this, but I continue to believe one thing working in Hannibal’s favor is that it’s only 13 episodes per season. By itself, that would make it easier to schedule, but assuming NBC wants to put scripted programming on Sundays next season (and it should, and I think it could easily do so), it fits in there perfectly. What it might be paired with isn’t clear, however.

  • Rebecca

    @Rita
    There is no Friends reunion coming. Jennifer Aniston shot that rumor down on Ellen’s show this week.

    I root for GO, GWK, 1600 Penn, Community, Grimm and Parks. I watch RVN and Smash too but I don’t care about their fate any more.

  • Alex

    @Fred
    I like your schedule. However I would rather see ROCK CENTER moved away from 20/20 or canceled. It simply can’t compete. Ratings are not worthy, even on a low expectation 10:00 Friday slot.

    At this point I can’t see any upside for NBC in not keeping Brian Williams happy and cancelling or moving Rock Center again probably isn’t the best way to keep him on side. Rock Center is cheap and I don’t think Dateline (which would be the only other NBC would realistically schedule in that) is likely to pull significantly better numbers in the slot. I think it’ll be interesting to see what it does tonight actually. In theory a show like Rock Center comes into its own in a week of big news stories.

    Also in the spring you put a scripted drama on Sunday after Biggest Loser. Does that mean you think NBC will cancel Celebrity Apprentice? I know its not a hit anymore, but I think it does well enough.

    I don’t think they’ll cancel it.

    My assumption is that one of Biggest Loser or Celebrity Apprentice will be announced as airing on Sunday in the Spring and the other will be announced as pushed to the summer. I went with Loser as part of the Spring schedule because it tends to rate better than The Apprentice. Although I should stress that’s only what I think will be announced. In reality I imagine both will end up airing in the Spring when the one that doesn’t land on Sunday is parachuted onto the schedule. In general though they’re good shows to have on the bench as they can air over an hour, 90 minutes or 2 hours depending on how big the hole you need to fill is. And if by some miracle you don’t actually need them during the Spring they should hold up well enough over the summer.

  • David

    Tell me what you think?

    Monday
    The Voice
    The Voice
    The Sixth Gun

    Tuesday
    The Voice Results
    Believe
    Revolution

    Wednesday
    Parenthood
    After Hours
    Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    Community (FINAL SEASON)
    MJF Comedy
    Parks and Recreation
    Assistance
    Law and Order: SVU

    Friday
    Dateline
    Grimm
    Dracula (the show has already been ordered, it must be included) / Hannibal after Olympics

    Saturday
    Repeats

    Sunday
    Football / Rock Centre? Or Unscripted
    Football / Celebrity Apprentice

  • karin

    Hannibal ‘s ratings are terrible vs repeats..

  • bjssp

    @Alex:

    If Rock Center is so cheap, and it’s important to keep Brian Williams happy, why not order some episodes but hold them? If a new show flops, they can be easily subbed in. Or they could be a bridge between Christmas and the Olympics. The worst case scenario would be that NBC has so few holes, it runs the show over the summer or on Saturdays–and wouldn’t the network love to be a position to do that?

  • Alex

    @bjssp
    If Rock Center is so cheap, and it’s important to keep Brian Williams happy, why not order some episodes but hold them?

    Because its a live news and current event series holding episodes back for the summer or broadcast later doesn’t really work. I don’t know why people are so adverse to the idea that NBC will stick with it.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures