Bubble Watch: Uncertainty for 'Hannibal'; 'Glee' for 2; 'The Neighbors' Likely to be Renewed + 'Body of Proof'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 21st, 2013

Hannibal

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Glee Renewed: shame on you if that surprises you

I’m not a Glee viewer so I have no skin in the game. If you don’t like it and you want it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s fine. But if you expect it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s kinda nuts. Who cares if Glee’s ratings are a shadow of their former self? Glee still has above average ratings for Fox and shows with above average ratings almost always get renewed.

“Why renew it for two seasons? It’s ratings are above average now, but they will be below average the season after next!” That it made financial sense to Fox to renew it for two seasons is a good enough generalization for me. Beyond that, while we don’t fiddle with adults 18-34 ratings for purposes of prognosticating (it doesn’t change the predictions, so why complicate things?) it’s an important subset of adults 18-49. Glee’s 18-49 ratings are above average and its adults 18-34 (and women 18-34) ratings even more so.

Translation: don’t be too surprised if Glee still has a higher 30 second spot cost than Person Of Interest when Ad Age’s annual estimates come out next fall.

The Neighbors Still Likely to Be Renewed

Bill downgraded The Neighbors in last Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel Index due to the relative comparison between post-March 1 ratings for The Neighbors and How To Live With Your Parents.

No ding on How To Live With Your Parents performance (and I’ve upgraded it) I just don’t think it’s a case where using those two shows’ absolute ratings as a yardstick against each other is the way to go. Considering everything --even post-March 1 performance, where among other factors, three out of four of The Neighbors episodes aired after repeats of The Middle and four out of four did not air after Modern Family -- I still have the shows even.

THE NEIGHBORS has something else going for it – ABC has an ownership stake. How To Live With Your Parents is a Fox production.

Body Of Proof Upgraded to the Bubble

Assuming Body Of Proof has settled in at ratings that won’t deteriorate further, it will end the season with a little bit better index than it had last year. Given last year’s renewal, that makes it at least a bubble show. I won’t be surprised if it’s canceled, but after last year how could I be surprised if it’s renewed?

Hannibal Still on the Bubble

Hannibal got off to a promising start (at least on NBC) and actually went higher in its 2nd episode. But its 3rd episode fell 18% to a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating.  Even if it merely stabilizes from here, I still think it probably scrapes out a renewal. Another 18% drop though and it’s in Deception territory with a possible “yeah, but NOTHING works for NBC Thursday’s at 10pm!” played on Fan Excuse Bingo cards, and hey, it can actually fall another 18% and still be ahead of last year’s Awake!

Yep, I upgraded Beauty And The Beast back to the Bubble

I tried to talk myself into it with conventional wisdom last week but didn’t quite get there.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
-

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Cult CW Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com

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  • Cle

    I guess ABC will do this:

    Renew
    Castle
    Body of Proof (now 51%renew & 49% cancel)(for midseason)
    Nashville
    Greys Anatomy
    Scandal
    Once Upon a Time
    Revenge
    The Middle
    Modern Family
    How To Live…
    Surbagatory(for midseason)
    Last Man Standing

    Cancel
    Red Widow
    The Neighbors
    Malibu Country

    New
    Comedy probably on Wednesday 8.30 or 9.30
    Comedy on Friday to pair with LMS
    4 new dramas out of which probably 2 will be cancelled and 2 renewed, first one renewed for fantanstic results(probably will be on Tues 10pm) and second one as average(probably on Wed 10pm).. The other 2 drama will end up on Major risky/dead/failure slots of ABC this season Tues 8pm, Thu 8pm or Sun 10pm….

  • disney rocks

    ABC 2013/14 schedule-

    Sunday-
    7- AFHV
    8- DWTS/The Bachelor/DWTS
    10- Nashville/NEW drama/Nashville (22 eps)

    Monday-

    8- DWTS results
    9- NEW drama (Procedural!)
    10- Castle

    Tuesday-

    8- Suburgatory
    8:30- The Neighbors/NEW sitcom (January-May)
    9- S.H.I.E,L.D (NEW drama)
    10- OUAT

    Wednesday-

    8- The Middle
    8:30- NEW sitcom
    9- MF
    9:30- HTLWYPFTHROYL/NEW sitcom (April-May)
    10- Revenge (13 episodes)/NEW drama (February-March)

    Thursday-

    8- BOP/Wife Swap
    9- GA (Final season0
    10- Scandal

    NOTE- Scandal will move to 9PM for the 2014-15 season, with a new drama launching at 10.

    Friday-

    8- LMS
    8:30- NEW multi-cam sitcom
    9- Shark Tank
    10- 20/20

    NOTES- I think THe Neighbors will come back. ABC wont want to keep it on Wednesday, so it would be a good enough match with Suburgatory on tuesdays. 2 new sitcoms on fall schedule. 2 will fill in for the neighbors and how to live with your parents at midseason. So, 4 total. S.H.I.E.L.D’s best shot is Tuesdays@9 and could help OUAT ride out awhile. Tuesdays flow nicely. Revenge back to Wednesday too, only gets 13 episodes.. DWTS will do best on Sunday and on Monday it;s best to launch a procedural after it that will flow into Castle. In total, 4 new dramas; 2 for the Fall and 2 for spring. % could be ordered in case the procedural or S.H.IE.LD bombs. IF the neighbors is doing well and the new friday sitcom bombs, the 2nd midseason comdey can fill in on fridays instead. What do you guys think?

  • Dan

    @Chris – The Neighbors could go the way of Better With You just as easily as ABC giving it a second season. It’s a toss up but I personally think its more likely ro be dumped in favor of new pilots.

    @Rollie Dethloff – Add CSI NY to the CBS cancelled list and you’re right with all of you’re cancellation predictions, however Whitney is the only one that has somewhat of a chance to return.

  • Dan

    @TVDude – I agree about Community, 87 episodes was more than enough with Sony but that didn’t stop them from making a deal with CBS for 13 more episodes and it worked out great for CBS because ROE plugged a hole in the schedule when Partners got cancelled and Friend Me got delayed. NBC could cancel Community but if they gave it a final 16 episode wrap up season then it could help syndication, reach 100 episodes and wrap up storylines. (I hear the current Community season has a finale but may not wrap things up too well because the season was cut short)

  • Cle

    @disney rocks…

    bad schedule…

    first majorly DWTS wont be moved to sundays at any circumstances…
    sunday lineup will be as it is AFHV, OUAT, REVG and folloing new drama or Nashville…

    GA final season!! ABC will milk it out to get another season for 2015 too…

  • rob60990

    “You’re clueless Rob60990, The Neighbors will be renewed. I know how TV works. It’s not emotional, it’s stats.”

    What stats? It pulled a 1.5 for its season finale and its ABC’s lowest rated Wednesday comedy this season.

  • TVratingsguy

    Okay Neighbors haters– Yes How I Live retained 100% of modern family repeat, but The Neighbors actually went up from its middle repeat lead ins every single time it followed a repeat… And it followed a lot of middle repeats! And that is better than 100%. So there.

  • Dan

    @TV ratings guy – But those middle repeat ratings were lower than 2.0 so it was expected for Neighbors to rise. We expected How to Live to dip below a MF repeat and it was unlikely to build so retaining that audience is good enough. Neighbors kept dropping and dropping while so far How to Live is stable.

  • chrisss

    I think The Neighbors is 100% cancelled. Malibu Country will get renewed. I imagine that ABC will want to launch a new comedy on Wednesdays, so if How To Live… gets renewed, Suburgatory gets held until midseason. If How To Live… doesn’t hold up and gets cancelled, Suburgatory stays at 8.30pm. Suburgatory simply isn’t strong enough to launch a new comedy block on Tuesdays imo.

  • SJ

    In the case of How to Live with Your Parents, ABC can either: a) cancel it or b) renew it and leave it where it is in order to build an audience. Moving it to a different time slot after only 6 episodes of following Modern Family is a suicide mission and it will end up just like Apartment 23.

    @disneyrocks

    Why would Revenge get a 13-episode renewal? If a sophomore drama with two full seaosns under its belt gets renewed for a third season, it is automatically getting a fourth season as well for syndication purposes. What would be the point of giving it a partial order?

    @Dan

    A Tuesday comedy block consisting of Suburgatory and The Neighbors would fall apart quicker than the Happy Endings/Apartment 23 combo this year. I would like for Suburgatory to stay within the main comedy block in the fall though. ABC is never going to get another comedy hit if they just keep moving their comedies away from the main block. Take a page from NBC’s book: 30 Rock followed The Office for years and it was a solid hit for them and it went on for seven seasons. I don’t think anybody benefits from the marry-go-round of the post-Middle/Modern Family slots. YMMV

  • Jamie04

    @Oliver – read the article, you are kinda nuts – Glee is here to stay! I am so laughing at everyone that kept saying “cancelled” or only “13 eps” – LOL

  • Chrissy

    Hopefully Body of Proof gets renewed! Probs if it does just a mid season but wouldn’t mind! :)

  • The End

    @Robert Seidman

    I agree with you Robert, my comment was mostly coming out in support of the way you and Bill do things.

  • chrisss

    @ SJ

    This is unlikely, but ABC might only want 13 episodes for scheduling purposes. And since they don’t own the show syndication isn’t really an issue for them.

  • Nick

    @Robert

    That’s interesting. Thanks.

  • Monica

    Suburgatory isn’t going to be held for midseason and it’s too weak to anchor a Tuesday comedy block. If it doesn’t stay on Wednesday, Suburgatory could go to Tuesday if it were paired up with a pilot that ABC thinks could stand on its own. It could also be sent to Friday to wither and die after two more seasons.

    The Neighbors is going to be cancelled. It’s at the bottom of the single-camera totem pole and certainly won’t be on Wednesday next season. If it isn’t on Wednesday, it’s going to be pulling 1.5s or worse. Surely ABC thinks they can do better with a pilot, especially since most people’s schedules only have 1 or 2 pilots to begin with. Do you guys really think that the Neighbors will do better than ABC’s second or third best comedy pilot?

    Other than the Neighbors, I agree with everything’s place on the list. RoE will probably be cancelled but whatever, nobody cares anymore.

  • jake3988

    The Cleveland Show has not been announced as cancelled and it will NEVER be announced as such. Fox, nor any other network, announces cancellations. It simply won’t be on next year’s schedule that will be revealed in May and at that point will be effectively cancelled.

  • Dan

    @SJ – But ABC can’t have Suburgatory, The Middle, Modern Family and How to Live all return to Wed if they want to launch a new comedy, ABC won’t move The Middle or Modern Family off Wed and moving How to Live would be suicide for the show. So they have to move Suburgatory. Even though ABC doesn’t own Suburgatory I’m sure they will keep it around for 2 more seasons.

  • Rollie Dethloff

    @ Dan
    I might be delusional, but I still think CSI: NY has a slim chance of getting renewed. CBS can always break tradition and only premeire 2 dramas, or just cut cycles of Amazing Race and Survior to 1 and pair them together.

  • omabin

    My predictions for the bubble shows are:
    – Body of Proof: Renewal
    – Malibu Country: Renewal
    – Rules of Engagement: Cancel (I think I would actually be confident enough to move this one out of the bubble)
    – Beauty and The Beast: Renewal
    – Community: Renewal
    – Go On: The biggest tossup of the season at this moment… I say canceled, but it really could go either way
    – Hannibal: Too early to tell, I need to see how it performs when competition returns
    – Whitney: Cancel
    – The Neighbors: Cancel

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