Bubble Watch: Uncertainty for 'Hannibal'; 'Glee' for 2; 'The Neighbors' Likely to be Renewed + 'Body of Proof'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 21st, 2013

Hannibal

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Glee Renewed: shame on you if that surprises you

I’m not a Glee viewer so I have no skin in the game. If you don’t like it and you want it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s fine. But if you expect it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s kinda nuts. Who cares if Glee’s ratings are a shadow of their former self? Glee still has above average ratings for Fox and shows with above average ratings almost always get renewed.

“Why renew it for two seasons? It’s ratings are above average now, but they will be below average the season after next!” That it made financial sense to Fox to renew it for two seasons is a good enough generalization for me. Beyond that, while we don’t fiddle with adults 18-34 ratings for purposes of prognosticating (it doesn’t change the predictions, so why complicate things?) it’s an important subset of adults 18-49. Glee’s 18-49 ratings are above average and its adults 18-34 (and women 18-34) ratings even more so.

Translation: don’t be too surprised if Glee still has a higher 30 second spot cost than Person Of Interest when Ad Age’s annual estimates come out next fall.

The Neighbors Still Likely to Be Renewed

Bill downgraded The Neighbors in last Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel Index due to the relative comparison between post-March 1 ratings for The Neighbors and How To Live With Your Parents.

No ding on How To Live With Your Parents performance (and I’ve upgraded it) I just don’t think it’s a case where using those two shows’ absolute ratings as a yardstick against each other is the way to go. Considering everything --even post-March 1 performance, where among other factors, three out of four of The Neighbors episodes aired after repeats of The Middle and four out of four did not air after Modern Family -- I still have the shows even.

THE NEIGHBORS has something else going for it – ABC has an ownership stake. How To Live With Your Parents is a Fox production.

Body Of Proof Upgraded to the Bubble

Assuming Body Of Proof has settled in at ratings that won’t deteriorate further, it will end the season with a little bit better index than it had last year. Given last year’s renewal, that makes it at least a bubble show. I won’t be surprised if it’s canceled, but after last year how could I be surprised if it’s renewed?

Hannibal Still on the Bubble

Hannibal got off to a promising start (at least on NBC) and actually went higher in its 2nd episode. But its 3rd episode fell 18% to a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating.  Even if it merely stabilizes from here, I still think it probably scrapes out a renewal. Another 18% drop though and it’s in Deception territory with a possible “yeah, but NOTHING works for NBC Thursday’s at 10pm!” played on Fan Excuse Bingo cards, and hey, it can actually fall another 18% and still be ahead of last year’s Awake!

Yep, I upgraded Beauty And The Beast back to the Bubble

I tried to talk myself into it with conventional wisdom last week but didn’t quite get there.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
-

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Cult CW Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com

--

 
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
  • Cory

    I thought in the renew/cancel that moving Hannibal to certain to be renewed was way too premature. After just 2 data point, against repeats, moving it there was a joke. And this week a 1.4, also against repeats, isn’t encouraging. It’s definitely in its correct place, on the bubble. I’m predicting cancellation after it goes down to 1.2 this week against new episodes.

    This is coming from someone who’s seen all 3 episodes and LOVES it so far. I’m a pessimist.

  • SJ

    @chrisss

    ABC owns Revenge. There is no scenario in which the show gets less than 22 episodes.

    @Dan

    I’m not saying SUB will be in the Wednesday block in the fall, I was just saying, I wish it would stay there for at least one more year. It could have a chance at getting back into the block by January if its replacement fails or they could just double up on episodes in a different time slot – maybe even Tuesdays, who knows. I’m just saying that ABC won’t move it to Tuesdays in the fall in the hope that it can anchor a new comedy block. It can’t. It’s too weak.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I have no problem with both BoP and BATB being moved to Bubble status. Both of them appear to have stabilized this close to their finales. That’s a good sign for both.

    That doesn’t mean I think either SHOULD be renewed. BoP at least could be renewed as a spring show as it was this season. Personally I would cancel it, but if it’s profitable for the network at current ratings (maybe with help from the alleged tax credit) then so be it. The show really hasn’t gotten better with the recasting, with the exception of adding Mark Valley. They’ve loaded down the show with babes – TWO hot FBI chicks last week, I mean, seriously? – but that’s about it. Valley’s cop partner is as boring – in fact, more so – than the two in previous seasons – which is why they added the Latina officer. That casting is just desperate.

    BATB, OTOH, would really be a stupid renewal for the CW. The show can only go down from where it is once moved from behind TVD, especially if moved to Fridays which would be even more stupid. The show may be profitable this season due to high international sales last May and possibly due to other contributing financial factors, but given the state of the network and the likelihood that the best the show will do in season two is a season average of .4-.5, the show should be canceled and replaced with something new which probably would do better at least initially.

    So I still think it’s likely to be canceled. IF it’s true that the CW can’t afford to put on the necessary number of new shows, however, they might be forced to renew it. But that notion, again, is speculative. They’ve canceled that many new shows before, they’ve had to cancel older shows this season which may change their behavior either way, and they have plenty of pilots to choose from.

    So the best BATB can expect is Bubble status and I think it’s still likely to be canceled and SHOULD be canceled. The episode last week was the best they’ve aired so far, but that doesn’t make up for a season of crap.

    And of course, it’s still possible that both BoP and BATB will fall some more before their finales.

  • Mari

    Everybody should watch Hannibal. Really good stuff.

  • Dan

    @SJ – I agree that Suburgatory is too weak to anchor the block but that didn’t stop ABC in the past.

    @Rollie – I really think there’s no chance for CSI NY. It had a good run and was on the bubble for the third year on a row. Even if CBS had 1 Amazing Race cycle that would only leave room for another new drama or of CBS expands comedy. Plus CBS cancels 1 veteran every season and this year it’s CSI NY

  • Lisa

    Despite all of its issues, I still enjoy Glee and am glad that it was renewed for 2 more years. Hoping against hope that Nashville gets renewed. I am a Dana Delany fan so, for her sake, I am pulling for Body of Proof but this year’s version is so different from the previous year’s version that it really is a completely new show. In the “Last Gasp of Hope” column, I really like The New Normal and hope that it gets a reprieve.

  • Austin

    This doesn’t make any sense. You previously said Smash was canceled, but it wasn’t confirmed and you have it under canceled. Now, The Cleveland Show was pretty much canceled and you don’t have it under canceled.

  • Chris

    All of your schedules are beyond frustrating to me. My head is like about to explode I can’t sand some of the moves you guys make. Whatever complex you guys have, you need to get over it. Suburgatory on Tuesdays at 8? Come on man.
    Sunday-
    7:00 AFHV
    8:00 Once Upon A Time
    9:00 Shield
    Mondays
    8:00 DWTS
    9:00 NEW drama (Procedural!)
    10:00 Castle
    Tuesdays
    8:00 DWTS results(fall/ Shark Tank (spring)
    9:00 Shark Tank(fall)/ 2 new comedies (spring)
    10:00 Nashville/NEW drama/Nashville (22 eps)
    Wednesdays
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 How The Hell Am I Normal (all season)
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 Cullen bros. comedy (fall)/ How To Live (spring) I really want How TO live cancelled though because it’s god awful. I prefer The Neighbors but I have plans for that show
    10:00 new drama (fall)/ new drama (spring)
    Thursdays
    8:00 BOP
    9:00 Grey’s
    10:00 Scandal
    Fridays
    8:00 LMS
    8:30 The Neighbors(fall)/ King John (spring)
    9:00 Malibu Country
    9:30 Suburgatory
    10:00 20/20

    Now doesn’t this schedule make a whole lot more sense than the stuff people have been posting. I opened up the schedule for 5 new comedies and four new dramas while also establishing the new TGIF with new additions. Is this schedule hype or what?

  • stevenD

    @Chris

    There is no way Shields is going on Sunday at 9, putting it up against The Walking Dead will take away its full potential

  • Chris

    @StevenD my main emphasis was on Fridays and Wednesdays but if you must, I’d switch Nashville with Shield. Now is that the perfect schedule or is that the perfect schedule?

  • Chris

    @StevenD you should also know that The Walking Dead does not come on for the whole season so it may or may not affect Shield.

  • gregg

    im rooting for Body of Proof, it’s a better show. Also Nashville is one of the best shows this yeat. Am Looking foward to watching The Shield

  • Dan S

    @ Chris, um where’s Revenge ? I see you left Sun at 10 off so maybe you meant for it to go there. On Fri you have a multi cam followed by single cam then another multi cam ending with singe cam. If anything I’d leave MC on at 8:30 then put Suburgatory on at 9pm then TN at 9:30pm. Otherwise most of your schedule would work for the most part even moving BOP to Thur.

  • disney rocks

    If ABC promotes them well, then The Neighbors and Suburgatory could do good enough for them- mid-high 1s and will both ride out through there fourth seasons. I think they would work nicely with SHIELD and OUAT, finally giving ABC a solid tuesday. Also, Revenge is only 13 episodes cause it really doesnt need 22 episodes. It feels like a cable show and will probably end after a 5th season. And, I guess to make sure it gets 88 eps by its 5th season, that it should get 16 episodes instead staright-through early february. Plus, it will open a valuable slot for a new drama. Although it would be ideal for the OUAT spin-off to air with it, Wednesdays@10 would be a good slot for it as OUAT is Tuesdays@10. ABC would have two good nights in a row of fantasy, allowing for good crossovers. Also, it allows DWTS to prop up a Monday of procedurals from 9-11; Maybe Murder in Manhaatan@9?

  • Cass

    @Austin
    This doesn’t make any sense. You previously said Smash was canceled, but it wasn’t confirmed and you have it under canceled. Now, The Cleveland Show was pretty much canceled and you don’t have it under canceled.

    Smash is different because NBC moved it to Saturdays. Moving a primetime scripted show to Saturday means it’s not ever coming back. There’s been no timeslot shift to The Cleveland Show, aka official move by network, which means until they don’t renew it at upfronts, there’s no definitive cancellation just because some website somewhere says so. Even though it’s pretty clear that it’s not coming back. Just a matter of semantics and reporting info with accuracy.

  • Brad

    Disney

    You think ABC should stick with a stinker like Neighbors for 3 more years? LOL

  • Marc

    Right now, ABC has 8 sitcoms and 6 of those are single-cam. I think that ABC would probably like to do a shift back to multi-cams and have it at 4 and 4. Here is why:

    ABC: Modern Family is essentially holding up the single-cam industry for ABC, with an assist by The Middle. Every other show they plug in Wednesdays does about the same and then goes on to fail miserably if/when they are moved. LMS was solid last year, and paired with Malibu they are winning the Friday hour. The two shows also do much better in the overall eyeballs department. They would probably be better off trying more Multis

    The single-cam formula has been a huge bust for NBC, outside of The Office and P&R. Community, TNN, Go On, 1600 Penn, and Up All Night are all doing horribly/or are cancelled. They only have to multi-cams, and somehow Whitney is the main one and “anchor.” So, we’ll call that just bad decision-making. But they have put their eggs in the Single Camera basket and it’s dooming them.

    CBS is running 6 sitcoms right now. They are all multi-cam and all do well. Heck, even Rules of Engagement would be considered a hit on NBCFOXABC. I hear they are considering adding some Single Cams, but why? The single cam hit is a very rare exception.

    FOX is doing well with New Girl, but it’s numbers are falling and they overall viewers are not great. Everything else has been mediocre with low overall viewership. While overall viewers don’t do much for advertisers, a large viewership at least leaves open the possibility a show could grow and eventually captuer a good deal more in the target demo.

  • jake

    I think there’s too much comedies fight against each other, and yes, I agree with the guy above that single cam comedies are not working, it seems people like laugh tracks and dumb storylines (TAAHM, 2BG and even TBBT is now a geeky carbon copy of FRIENDS).

  • Patrick Ausgewahlt

    Moving an adult oriented comedy to Sunday at 6:30 is announcing cancellation. If 7 o’clock is supposed to be the family hour. 6 is the super family hour. Every other network airs either 60 Minutes (a newsmagazine), AFV (a family show), or sports overrun.

  • Hardline_Pro

    Nothing works on NBC. Period.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures