Bubble Watch: Uncertainty for 'Hannibal'; 'Glee' for 2; 'The Neighbors' Likely to be Renewed + 'Body of Proof'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 21st, 2013

Hannibal

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Glee Renewed: shame on you if that surprises you

I’m not a Glee viewer so I have no skin in the game. If you don’t like it and you want it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s fine. But if you expect it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s kinda nuts. Who cares if Glee’s ratings are a shadow of their former self? Glee still has above average ratings for Fox and shows with above average ratings almost always get renewed.

“Why renew it for two seasons? It’s ratings are above average now, but they will be below average the season after next!” That it made financial sense to Fox to renew it for two seasons is a good enough generalization for me. Beyond that, while we don’t fiddle with adults 18-34 ratings for purposes of prognosticating (it doesn’t change the predictions, so why complicate things?) it’s an important subset of adults 18-49. Glee’s 18-49 ratings are above average and its adults 18-34 (and women 18-34) ratings even more so.

Translation: don’t be too surprised if Glee still has a higher 30 second spot cost than Person Of Interest when Ad Age’s annual estimates come out next fall.

The Neighbors Still Likely to Be Renewed

Bill downgraded The Neighbors in last Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel Index due to the relative comparison between post-March 1 ratings for The Neighbors and How To Live With Your Parents.

No ding on How To Live With Your Parents performance (and I’ve upgraded it) I just don’t think it’s a case where using those two shows’ absolute ratings as a yardstick against each other is the way to go. Considering everything --even post-March 1 performance, where among other factors, three out of four of The Neighbors episodes aired after repeats of The Middle and four out of four did not air after Modern Family -- I still have the shows even.

THE NEIGHBORS has something else going for it – ABC has an ownership stake. How To Live With Your Parents is a Fox production.

Body Of Proof Upgraded to the Bubble

Assuming Body Of Proof has settled in at ratings that won’t deteriorate further, it will end the season with a little bit better index than it had last year. Given last year’s renewal, that makes it at least a bubble show. I won’t be surprised if it’s canceled, but after last year how could I be surprised if it’s renewed?

Hannibal Still on the Bubble

Hannibal got off to a promising start (at least on NBC) and actually went higher in its 2nd episode. But its 3rd episode fell 18% to a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating.  Even if it merely stabilizes from here, I still think it probably scrapes out a renewal. Another 18% drop though and it’s in Deception territory with a possible “yeah, but NOTHING works for NBC Thursday’s at 10pm!” played on Fan Excuse Bingo cards, and hey, it can actually fall another 18% and still be ahead of last year’s Awake!

Yep, I upgraded Beauty And The Beast back to the Bubble

I tried to talk myself into it with conventional wisdom last week but didn’t quite get there.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
-

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Cult CW Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com

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  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Austin/Patrick: Smash, was dumped on Saturdays — that equals canceled, period. I’d bet an awful lot of money that Cleveland Show is just as canceled, but that it airs at 7:30p ET/6:30p CT on Sundays isn’t the same sort of pronouncement. That’s where most of its originals have aired all season even if a handful of originals aired later in primetime.

  • forg

    @SJ

    Take a page from NBC’s book: 30 Rock followed The Office for years and it was a solid hit for them and it went on for seven seasons

    That actually hurt NBC in the long run since they were not able to groom a bigger hit that could stand on its own and now that the show is ending, NBC has no sitcom that can pull the ratings The Office gets (even in their diminished ratings, The Office is still the top rated NBC comedy) so no replacement for the important 9 pm slot. I really can’t blame ABC if they have tough standards with the post-MF slot. But I agree that if How to Live manages to remain solid until the enbd of its run then abc should keep it on its timeslot for next season

  • Janus

    BATB–always thought it likely to be cancelled but with a decent chance to be moved to genre day, Fridays. More and more i’m thinking a Friday move and survival is getting more likely. Right now i’m almost 50/50 on it.

    With more rumors that CW will renew NIKITA in a shortened season–I wonder what CW is up to overall? Those who doubt NIKITA will get a short season because of syndication–other shows have gotten syndication with less than the magic 88. And now BOTH Deadline and TVline are reported a final shortened season.

  • Chris

    I’m crossing my fingers and hoping for the best with Hannibal. Hopefully the ratings stay somewhere around where they are right now and all the talk about how they’re making good money selling it internationally is true. If the bottom line for NBC is good enough, it could still be a strong candidate for renewal even after this week’s ratings drop.

    Or at least, that’s what I want to believe. ;)

  • lois

    Cancel hart of dixie. And keep the rest of the women shows.

  • Oliver

    @jake

    Friends was never as mean-spirited as TBBT or as crass as TaaHM/2BG.

  • Oliver

    @forg
    Indeed, keeping 30 Rock after The Office was an incredibly dumb short-termist move from NBC. They needed to use that slot, their only decent lead-in, to launch a new comedy. There’s a reason their comedy slate is so weak.

    @Patrick Ausgewahlt
    American Dad aired at 7:30 during the second half of the 2010-2011 season and is still going.

    I find the pedantry over Smash’s cancellation bizarre.

  • Dan

    @Oliver – I agree about 30 Rock, NBC should have led the night off with it in 2009 and let Community air out if The Office but NBC execs really liked 30 Rock.

    Also American Dad was almost cancelled 2010-2011 in favor of BB succeeding it and Cleveland remaining in its slot but AD continued to do well and proved that no matter what slot they put it in.

  • Claudia

    @Robert,

    why did you changed BATB to Bubble? nothing have changed from last time a new episode air…they still have the same .6 demo target rate, even the total viewers increased…all the other CW shows are doing the same or worst???? So why???? You need beastie or haters traffic? or you need to go on for the next couple of weeks? if thats it…Epic Fail!!!!!

  • SJ

    Keeping 30 Rock after The Office for four seasons was a good move by NBC because when they did finally move it, first to 8:30 and then to 10pm, it actually did OK for them for half a season. I believe it was the hiatus before season 6 that ultimately did the show in.

    You can’t force a show to be a hit IMO. If people want to watch a show, it will become a hit in its own right, like Modern Family or Once Upon a Time, which launched out of nothing and still became ABC’s highest rated shows in their respective categories (although Grey’s anatomy has retaken the spot of top ABC drama in 2012-2013).

    I think Smash, Cougar Town and Go On are recent disastrous examples of a show only doing well when it’s following a big lead-in.

  • Claudia

    @Robert, Oopsie, my bad! It was the bear that has BATB likely renewed, you had it at likely cancelled…sorry you upgraded to bubbloe! I dont even know where I write anymore….

  • Oliver

    @SJ

    You can’t force a show to be a hit but you can give a show a chance to be sampled and develop its own audience.

    Look at how CBS has managed to develop hits off the back of old hits (e.g. Raymond was lead-in into TaaHM which is was the lead-in to TBBT). Or look at 30 Rock, which got 1.7 in 18-49 (in 2006!) for its fourth Wednesday episode and would have been quickly cancelled without a move to Thursday.

    What ultimately killed 30 Rock was putting it at 8 against TBBT and Idol. NBC thought Community was underperforming so they put the veteran 30 Rock in the death slot and murdered it. I suspect the show would have gone for at least another full season otherwise.

  • Wright

    Hannibal should definitely be renewed.

  • Nick

    @SJ

    like Modern Family or Once Upon a Time, which launched out of nothing and still became ABC’s highest rated shows in their respective categories

    I’m just being nitpicky here, but Once Upon a Time’s first season (3.27 average) was outrated by Grey’s Anatomy last year as well (3.56).

    Cougar Town […] are recent disastrous examples of a show only doing well when it’s following a big lead-in.

    Actually, in its first few weeks on the air, Cougar Town outrated its lead-in of Modern Family. It was only when The Emmys came around that Modern Family boomed into a megahit and CT didn’t grow when it was moved away. It was never that big behind Modern Family, and it just became “less big” later.

  • M K Sims

    I believe Malibu Country will be renewed along with Last Man Standing.I do think the show needs more promos.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Janus: “And now BOTH Deadline and TVline are reported a final shortened season.”

    Which merely means these sites crib from each other… The producers has explicitly denied that rumor as no decisions have been made.

  • tscchope

    Since Fridays aren’t noted for their highratings, risking a new show there is pretty dumb, even for CW, @RSH. it makes sense to move a show there, especially one that’s already paid for itself through international sales. Fridays at 8PM, followed by Nikita at 9PM

    The agrument that you don’t air a show because its ratings will decrease is pretty darn stupid. You’d nevewr air a new show – its end of season ratings usually will be quite a bit down on its premiere.

    It seesm to me that a network that replaces half its shows each year is never going to build an audience for its netwrok. It’ll only ever have people dipping in to see and then leave.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    tscchope: “It seesm to me that a network that replaces half its shows each year is never going to build an audience for its netwrok. It’ll only ever have people dipping in to see and then leave.”

    So you’d rather they run shows pulling no audience at all? Right, real smart…

    “The agrument that you don’t air a show because its ratings will decrease is pretty darn stupid. You’d nevewr air a new show ”

    Who the hell is talking about a new show? We’re talking about a season two show. We’re talking about renewals. Of COURSE you don’t air a show if you know the ratings are going to be too low.

  • Melody

    My two cents on the Bubble Shows:
    - Body of Proof: I don’t watch, I don’t pay any attention to it at all, and so I don’t care.
    - Malibu Country: I don’t watch, I don’t pay any attention to it at all, but I like Lily Tomlin and always wish her the best so I’m going to say I hope for renewal and actually do expect it based on the ratings.
    - Rules of Engagement: With David Spade out looking for other work, I’m seeing cancelation.
    - Beauty and The Beast: I hope renewal mostly because I really hate when a show is canceled too late in the season for the producers to wrap up the story lines. So that means that the finale will have cliffhangers and I want them resolved. I think this would pair nicely with Nikita on Friday nights.
    - Community: Do not care.
    - Go On: I so very rarely watch sitcoms, but I love this show. Yes, please bring back this fantastic group of characters and I actually think it have a good shot of coming back and since it is the second highest rated NBC sitcom not currently ending this season, I do expect renewal.
    - Hannibal: I was disappointed with the third episode, but I am really enjoying the characters and of course it looks amazing. I’m hoping for ratings increase or stabilization so it will stick around. Based on the ratings so far, I’m going with likely renewal.
    - Whitney: Canceled. NBC needs to get rid of some comedies that aren’t Go On.
    - The Neighbors: Aliens in a sitcom, don’t care.

  • carbar

    I hope Golden Boy isn’t cancelled. It beats Body of Proof in key demo 18-49.

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