CBS: 'Vegas' Is Certain To Be Canceled; Plus, What Drama Gets Moved To Friday?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


finally-friday-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012-  April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :oops: 0.50
Vegas (some F) :oops: 0.53
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.55
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.56
The Good Wife renewed 0.61
The Mentalist renewed 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.82
CSI renewed 0.86
Elementary renewed 0.88
Rules of Engagement :cry: :cry: 0.95
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.09
Mike & Molly renewed 1.11
Person Of Interest renewed 1.16
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.51
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.15

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There's no suspense left in the remaining CBS drama renewal or cancellation decisions, so all that's left for the Cancellation Bear in these weekly posts is getting some headlines in place that will get some search engine love once frantic fans start searching for their previously canceled shows. Vegas is certain to be canceled. Of course. There still may be those out there believing otherwise. If so, please seek out your local mental health professional.

Since discussing CBS' remaining, and except for RoE, 100% obvious moves, let's go for a discussion in the comments about which current drama will be moved to Friday next fall. CBS is certain to keep Blue Bloods on Friday, and almost certain to premiere a new drama there, but there's no way they put two new dramas there in the Fall, so a current drama's gotta move.

The bear has no way of predicting accurately based on the limited history he has to work with, but I'm sure everyone has their own theories. Have at it!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • samurai99

    @FrenchGuy

    Uh, check the ratings index. Elementary is the #1 10 pm show.

    I’m guessing CSI the most likely, though H5O is a possibility if CBS doesn’t think it can go for much longer.

  • Cerebro

    Why is everyone insistent on moving “CSI” to Friday? “CSI” is, currently, CBS’s highest rated 10PM drama. It, also, got an early renewal (well, earlier than the most recent plethora of renewals). No way it’s going to Friday. I think the Wednesday night line-up of “Survivor”, “Criminal Minds”, and “CSI” will remain intact.

    I think, either, “The Good Wife”, or “The Mentalist” are the top candidates for a Friday transplant. If CBS wants to freshen up the Monday, 10PM slot, I could easily see “Hawaii Five-0″ being moved to Sunday to fill the void left by, either, TGW or TM.

  • Dan

    @Bill – I don’t think its almost certain CBS will premiere a new drama on Fridays. Ever since Fall 2010 when they tried their Medium / CSI NY / Blue Bloods combination, Fridays each season have gone down in viewers with low rated new dramas. With UB held for midseason If CBS moves CSI to CSI NY’s old slot (this past fall) then move one of their sunday dramas (Likely The Mentalist to 9) and keep Blue Bloods at 10, CBS could have a stable friday with returning dramas and try out new dramas 1 in CSI’s old slot Wed at 10 and NCIS Red likely at 9 Tuesdays (NCIS LA may move to 10 Tuesdays)

  • Dan

    @Cerebro – Probably because its CBS’s oldest drama and its likely going to last maybe 2 more years at most so why not move it to Fridays at 8 so CBS can premiere a new drama in its slot, a drama that may last longer.

  • Carrie

    My gut says the Mentalist. Secondary guesses would be Hawaii 50 or one of the CSI/NCIS spin-offs.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I don’t think its almost certain CBS will premiere a new drama on Fridays. Ever since Fall 2010 when they tried their Medium / CSI NY / Blue Bloods combination, Fridays each season have gone down in viewers with low rated new dramas. With UB held for midseason If CBS moves CSI to CSI NY’s old slot (this past fall) then move one of their sunday dramas (Likely The Mentalist to 9) and keep Blue Bloods at 10, CBS could have a stable friday with returning dramas and try out new dramas 1 in CSI’s old slot Wed at 10 and NCIS Red likely at 9 Tuesdays (NCIS LA may move to 10 Tuesdays)”

    Not out of the question, but that makes other moves difficult.

    If they put 3 returning dramas on Friday, then any new drama failures require moving a Friday show to fill in, unless you think they’ll put Undercover Boss into a 10pm “failed new drama” slot.

  • Cass

    @Ivan
    How comes, The Good Wife is renewed with such ratings? And Golden Boy is in danger.

    Because TGW is now in its fourth season which tends to be the rule of thumb minimum for a good syndication deal. CBS Studios makes TGW so they’re the ones due for syndication money, which has sold TGW to various sources, such as Hallmark Channel.

    Meanwhile, GB is a freshman show. The only way it sees syndication returns is in another three years. That is unacceptable for CBS given that its relative ratings are so low. They can eat ratings declines for a veteran show (it’s expected) but not for a new one which will mean even lower ratings than TGW by the time it gets to season 4.

  • Celoriu

    I’m thinking Hawaii Five-O to Sundays and The Good Wife to Fridays, where it belongs.

  • Cass

    @Cerebro
    I think, either, “The Good Wife”, or “The Mentalist” are the top candidates for a Friday transplant.

    I agree. I think TGW (given how old it skews) wouldn’t be terrible after Blue Bloods, although I expect there might be some initial discomfort given one skews male and the other female. They already garner similar ratings, which means if TGW moves, it’ll rate even lower on a Friday than a Sunday. But since its ratings are expected to continue its decline on Sundays anyway, I like having the Friday Factor excuse.

    TM might be an even better fit but I’m biased towards any move that prolongs TGW’s longevity for a dare-we-hope sixth season.

  • charlotte mustain

    Move Hawaii 5-0 to friday would be better moving it to sunday. because when football season comes on you would get to see Hawaii 5-0.
    Hawaii 5-0 is one the best shows that CBS has.

  • Tom

    “Not out of the question, but that makes other moves difficult.

    If they put 3 returning dramas on Friday”

    It’s not that bad, you either just do a 1 for 1 swap and replace the new failed show with, say, The Mentalist, and/or at midseason you put UB on Friday, the show it displaced on Sunday, and some Sunday show into that failed show’s slot.

  • omabin

    My guess is that they will move H50 to Sundays, but I am against the idea. I think the show is more suited for Sundays. Still, for the sake of minimizing moves (which is why i think it will end up on fridays instead of sundays), i will let it stay on fridays.

    I would do it like this (Assuming no comedy expansion, even though that is not what I prefer):

    Monday
    How I Met Your Mother
    Friends with Better Lives
    2 Broke Girls
    Mom
    Beverly Hill Cops

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS-LA
    Hostages [I am not that sold on Red's success, I would hold it for midseason]

    Wednesday
    Survivor
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    The Big Bang Theory
    Two and a Half Men
    Person of Interest
    Intelligence

    Friday
    Hawaii Five-0
    Elementary
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    The Amazing Race
    The Good Wife
    The Mentalist

    Mike and Molly to be hold for midseason and take Rules of Engagement’ place as placeholder. It is not doing that better than the 9pm dramas at this point, so I think it is reasonable. I am only moving 2 shows with this schedule, Elementary and H50, while premiering 3 new dramas and 2 new comedies. Thoughts?

  • Fake Me Out

    Good Wife gets the Friday treatment with 13~16 episodes and CSI:NY comes back post Yule also with 13~16 episodes once they’ve found a way to trim the budget to acceptable levels. Pads both shows syndication pool and cuts the number of repeats shown.

    ymmv

  • rgxx

    I am shocked CBS is taking a long time to cancel this show – must be because of the 2 big stars – both of which I like their acting— but Period pieces from the past DO NOT work in today’s market.

  • rgxx

    Ready For Cancelation should now be an hour – and add an hour to the Voice and stop re-airing them on the weekends

  • ProViewerShipNumbers

    CBS: 2013-2014 Schedule

    SUNDAY
    7 – 60 MINUTES [solid C][15 million]
    8 – HALF A HEART [19 episodes][traces the lives of several people who participated in the civil rights movement and continue to live in its shadow][10 million]
    9 – THE MENTALIST [FINAL SEASON][16 episodes][D minus][11 million] | UNTITLED NCIS: LOS ANGELES SPIN-OFF [JANUARY][19 episodes][12 million]
    10 – BLUE BLOODS [19 episodes][D minus][13 million]
    10:58 – THE CRAZY ONES [14 episodes][10 million]
    11:30- THE BUDDY SYSTEM [10 episodes][affiliates can air it after local news at 12am ET][6 million]

    MONDAY
    8 – HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER [FINAL SEASON][17 episodes][B minus][this should have been its last season] | Girlfriend Season [MARCH][14 episodes]
    8 – Friends With Better Lives [24 episodes]
    9 – MIKE & MOLLY [25 episodes][D minus]
    9 – TWO AND A HALF MEN [FINAL SEASON][19 episodes][F minus] | OH F***, IT’S YOU [MAY][12 episodes]
    10 – CRIMINAL MINDS [FINAL SEASON][27 episodes][B minus]

    TUESDAY
    8 – NCIS [29 episodes][C minus]
    9 – THE GOOD WIFE [29 episodes][solid A]
    10 – NCIS: LOS ANGELES [27 episodes][D plus]

    WEDNESDAY
    8- The McCarthys [24 episodes]
    8- UNTITLED TAD QUILL PROJECT [24 episodes]
    9- 2 BROKE GIRLS [26 episodes][F minus; "beyond vile" as some executives would say]
    9- EX-MEN [24 episodes]
    10- CSI [FINAL SEASON][27 episodes][B minus]

    THURSDAY [most important day on TV]
    8- THE BIG BANG THEORY [29 episodes][solid F]
    8- Unauthorized Greg Garcia Project [25 episodes]
    9- PERSON OF INTEREST [29 episodes][B plus]
    10- HOSTAGES [24 episodes]

    FRIDAY
    8– White People (created by J.T. Rogers) [19 episodes][sobering, unsettling but deeply rewarding look at a combustible issue many of us prefer to sidestep]
    9– GIMME SHELTER [19 episodes]
    10– ELEMENTARY [25 episodes][D minus]

    SATURDAY
    7– THE AMAZING RACE [FINAL SEASON][Solid F][7.9 million] | SURVIVOR [DECEMBER][FINAL SEASON][D minus][8.9 million] | UNDERCOVER BOSS [FINAL SEASON][MAY][C plus][7.6 million]
    8– UNTITLED AARON SHURE PROJECT [19 episodes][7 million]
    8– How To Grow Up [19 episodes][7 million]
    9– Hawaii Five-0 [19 episodes][F minus][8.6 million]
    10– VEGAS [20 episodes][C minus][8.5 million] | GOLDEN BOY [APRIL] [15 episodes][C minus][8 million]
    10:58– All The Single Ladies [19 episodes][7 million]
    11:30-VINCE UNCENSORED [14 episodes][affiliates can air it after local news at 12am ET][4.8 million]

  • Dan

    @Bill – In that case, say CBS’s new Wed 10pm drama fails, then CBS could simply move CSI back to Wed at 10 and shift UB to fridays. I’m saying that new dramas airing on fridays are more likely to fail then if they were to air Wed at 10. I’m betting that CBS’s new NCIS spinoff NCIS LA will air Tuesdays at 9 sandwiched between NCIS and NCIS LA and will become a big hit.

    In recent seasons it seems like only the friday new dramas have performed badly or have been yanked. If CBS has new dramas anywhere other than Friday I doubt they will do horribly enough to be yanked.

  • Joseph D

    CBS could move a drama to Friday, or they could always put Undercover Boss on in the fall.

  • MichaelChickless

    I’d like to see CBS keep Undercover Boss, CSI: NY, and Blue Bloods on Friday.

    I’d cancel Vegas, Golden Boy, and ROE.

    Move Hawaii Five-O to Tuesdays after the NCIS twins. And I’d like to see Mentalist move to Mondays at 10:00. Put Unforgettable at 9:00 on Sundays, followed by The Good Wife.

  • Rachor Samien

    CSI won’t move to Friday. Why is everyone acting like CSI was dead? Is there any 10′PM drama better than it? Weird…

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