CBS: 'Vegas' Is Certain To Be Canceled; Plus, What Drama Gets Moved To Friday?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


finally-friday-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012-  April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :oops: 0.50
Vegas (some F) :oops: 0.53
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.55
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.56
The Good Wife renewed 0.61
The Mentalist renewed 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.82
CSI renewed 0.86
Elementary renewed 0.88
Rules of Engagement :cry: :cry: 0.95
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.09
Mike & Molly renewed 1.11
Person Of Interest renewed 1.16
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.51
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.15

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There's no suspense left in the remaining CBS drama renewal or cancellation decisions, so all that's left for the Cancellation Bear in these weekly posts is getting some headlines in place that will get some search engine love once frantic fans start searching for their previously canceled shows. Vegas is certain to be canceled. Of course. There still may be those out there believing otherwise. If so, please seek out your local mental health professional.

Since discussing CBS' remaining, and except for RoE, 100% obvious moves, let's go for a discussion in the comments about which current drama will be moved to Friday next fall. CBS is certain to keep Blue Bloods on Friday, and almost certain to premiere a new drama there, but there's no way they put two new dramas there in the Fall, so a current drama's gotta move.

The bear has no way of predicting accurately based on the limited history he has to work with, but I'm sure everyone has their own theories. Have at it!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • mike dobey

    save vegas. it’s by far a better show than the palid ‘golden boy” if they moved it to another night it would do better. they are not giving it a chance. what else do they have? they are going to ax ‘csi ny’ too. So they will put what on there? golden boy? a show that hasn’t half the writing or acting chops of ‘vegas”. Vegas looks great too, it has class. It is a big mistake not to greenlight another season.

  • Ultima

    @omabin
    I think an argument can be made that the higher within the 18-49 rage a show skews, the more suited it is for friday. A show whose 18-49 ratings come mostly from 18-34 is not well suited for fridays, because the 18-34 are more likely to be out on fridays.

    Fair enough.

    However, in this case, I doubt there’s enough difference between the shows to make that the most important (or even a significant) criteria.

  • Ultima

    @mike dobey
    save vegas.

    That ship has sailed.

    it’s by far a better show than the palid ‘golden boy”

    So?

    if they moved it to another night it would do better.

    But would the network do better as a whole? Doubtful. Also, what are they going to cancel instead of Vegas? Nothing, because they’ve already renewed everything else (except CM).

    they are not giving it a chance.

    Nonsense. Vegas had a chance. Sure, Elementary had the better timeslot, but Tuesdays after the NCISs (NCISi?) is still a good timeslot.

    what else do they have?

    Elementary, Person of Interest and a bunch of syndicated dramas.

    they are going to ax ‘csi ny’ too. So they will put what on there? golden boy? a show that hasn’t half the writing or acting chops of ‘vegas”

    No, Golden Boy will also be canceled.

    CBS needs to make room on their schedule for new dramas in the fall.

  • Ultima

    It is a big mistake not to greenlight another season.

    Cancelling low rated shows is very rarely a big mistake.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    Blue Bloods is going to be cancelled next season or at the very least one of the 3 lowest with TGW/TM. It’s getting a 4th season for syndication purposes but pulls only 5% above CSI:NY & 6-10% lower than TGW/TM.

    Which means, if Friday becomes a TGW/BB or TM/BB or TGW/TM/BB or what have you, and if more than 1 new show gets renewed, Friday becomes even more of an empty schedule for CBS.

    I think that whatever CBS moves to Friday, they should want to make it last 2 or more years, even if it gets not so good ratings. This is where H50/CSI:LV moves can make sense. They get 82&86% so they have a bit of shelf life, but not years and years. So, yes it would shorten their life spans but only by a year or two.

    This will allow for CBS to try to get new hits out of Mon comedies & Criminal Minds. Or maybe POI, if Elementary is moved to one of those slots, it won’t move to Fri, probably not Sun & I kinda doubt it will stick with POI. I’m thinking Elementary is either a 2 season and done show or limps along to syndication. In fact for Elementary, I could see it moving to Friday for it’s final 2 years (3&4), to help the Friday open schedule issue. Which might mean Elementary sticks with POI to help establish enough viewers to be willing to suffer 2 years on Friday.

    So, one or both of TGW/TM if CBS wants to let them go & is ok with another year after that of open Friday, which will be even more open b/c BB shouldn’t return based on ratings.
    Or, one of H50/CSI is CBS wants to have multiple seasons of a Friday scripted show the next two or more years. Both could last 3 years on Friday, esp with BB/TGW/TM needing to be cancelled b4 them & failure of New shows.

    All of NCIS/POI/CM are safe with Elementary safe for 1 year. Elementary might move 3 days in 3 years & only stable for it’s final 2. While NCIS/POI/CM might move to different times & possibly NCIS:LA to a different day if NCIS:Red is picked up & “NCIS Night” isn’t what CBS think will be a good idea.

  • Billy martins

    I think CBS FALL SHECDULE FOR 2013/14 shall began with
    Sunday
    7:00pm 60 minutes
    8:00pm The Amazing Race
    9:00pm Blue Blood~(New Day&time)
    10:00pm Criminal Minds~(New Day&time)
    Monday
    8:00pm How I Met your mother
    8:30pm 2 Broke Girls~(New Time)
    9:00pm Mike & Molly~(New Time)
    9:30pm (new)
    10:00pm Golden Boy~(New Day)
    Tuesday
    8:00pm POI ~(New Day&time)
    9:00pm The Mentalist~(New Day&time)
    10:00pm Good Wife~(New Time)
    Wednesday
    8:00pm NCIS~(New Day&time)
    9:00pm NCIS Los Angeles~(New Day&time)
    10:00pm NCIS RED~(New)
    Thursday
    8:00pm Surviour~(New Day)
    9:00pm CSI(New Day)
    10:00pm Elementary
    Friday
    8:00pm THE BIG BANG THEROY~(New Day&time)
    8:30pm 2&/Men~(New Day&time)
    9:00pm Undercover Boss~(New Time)
    10:00pm Hawait Five 0 ~(New Time&day)

  • ryan

    @art

    Regarding Criminal Minds, Thomas Gibson and AJ Cook both have their contracts up. I know I read somewhere that Joe Mantegna’s contract is up too, but I can’t find it again. The season 8 finale will be a Replicator cliffhanger episode where “one of their own becomes a victim” according to the CBS press release. Hotch’s brother and girlfriend will also guest star in at least part of the two-hour finale. It seems pretty likely that Hotch, or possibly JJ or Rossi, will be a victim whose fate is left unknown. If the contracts don’t work out, the character will be killed off. The show will absolutely be back in the fall, and likely for several more seasons. I’ll continue to watch as long as JJ doesn’t leave (again).

    @pretty much everybody else

    The last time CBS moved a freshman show for its second season was the Mentalist, and they only did that because it aired at Tuesday at 9 and CBS wanted to have NCIS LA after NCIS. Every renewed drama since then has kept its original spot for at least two years – POI, H50, BB, TGW, NCISLA. CBS really does hate moving shows around. This is why there is no way Elementary moves from its current spot, even if there is a comedy expansion. POI and Elementary will stay where they are. Anna Bones Clarkwood is right that it could move to Friday two years from now to get to syndication, but it won’t move before then.

    My predictions for 2013-2014:

    Sunday
    8:00 PM – The Amazing Race
    9:00 PM – Hawaii Five-0 (has at least two more seasons in it)
    10:00 PM – The Mentalist (final season)
    Monday
    8:00 PM – How I Met Your Mother (final season)
    8:30 PM – Mom (new)
    9:00 PM – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 PM – Mike & Molly
    10:00 PM – Beverly Hills Cop (new)
    Tuesday
    8:00 PM – NCIS
    9:00 PM – NCIS LA
    10:00 PM – Intelligence (new)
    Wednesday
    8:00 PM – Survivor
    9:00 PM – Criminal Minds (has at least 2 more seasons in it)
    10:00 PM – CSI (has at least 2 more seasons in it)
    Thursday
    8:00 PM – Big Bang Theory
    8:30 PM – Two and a Half Men
    9:00 PM – Person of Interest
    10:00 PM – Elementary (will get to syndication)
    Friday
    8:00 PM – The Good Wife (final season)
    9:00 PM – The Surgeon General (new)
    10:00 PM – Blue Bloods (possible final season depending on state of Friday shows)

    Undercover Boss and Hostages (new) held until midseason. I think CBS is going to re-tool NCIS Red or might even not pick it up.

    The only shows I moved are Hawaii 5-0 and the Good Wife. 2 moves, 3 new dramas, 1 new comedy. No comedy expansion and no reduction in The Amazing Race or Survivor.

  • J.G.

    I’m guessing it’ll go like this

    MONDAY
    8:00pm: How I Met Your Mother
    8:30pm: Mike & Molly
    9:00pm: Mom
    9:30pm: 2 Broke Girls
    10:00pm: Beverly Hills Cop

    TUESDAY
    8:00pm: NCIS
    9:00pm: NCIS: Red
    10:00pm: Elementary

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00pm: Survivor
    9:00pm: Criminal Minds
    10:00pm: Intelligence

    THURSDAY
    8:00pm: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30pm: The Crazy Ones
    9:00pm: Two and a Half Men
    9:30pm: Bad Teacher
    10:00pm: Person of Interest

    FRIDAY
    8:00pm: Hawaii 5-O
    9:00pm: The Good Wife
    10:00pm: Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    7:00pm: 60 Minutes
    8:00pm: The Amazing Race
    9:00pm: NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00pm: The Mentalist

  • Jonay

    If president Barack Obama called up a network such as CBS and ask to renew a show such as Vegas would the network have to?????

  • Jack Bauer

    CBS better renewed Criminal Minds and Two and a Half Men if both shows gets “final seasons” respectively. The network better canceled shows like Rules of Engagement, Golden Boy, Vegas and of course CSI: NY.

  • MaryAnn

    I am not writing off Vegas just yet. I don’t think it is beyond reason that CBS would leave it on Fridays along with Blue Bloods. They pair well, and Vegas is doing almost as well as Blue Bloods.

  • Dan

    @Mon – How am I delusional? CBS moved CSI NY to the 9pm slot which was worse Fall 2010.

    CBS needs to premiere new dramas, CSI may be #1 but it has 2 years left tops. Plus CSI could help Fridays, and a new drama would just flop.

    Blue Bloods was the rare friday exception, now that CBS is generally lower rated on fridays (Blue Bloods skyrockets in total viewers but in the demo its still so so) what point is there to premiere a new drama at 8 or 9. It will just be yanked for UB.

    A Gifted Man and Made in Jersey both flopped, just make Friday free of new dramas and save new dramas for other nights of the week.

  • Dan

    @Jonay – No a network would not have to unless president Obama paid them all the money for the cost of new episodes and even still they probably wouldnt.

    @Jack Bauer – Those shows you mentioned that will be cancelled, will all certainly be cancelled. Two and a Half Men may go into its final season but as long as ratings are good CBS will keep it around. Criminal Minds definitely has a few more years left.

    CBS will likely solve their drama problem by airing NCIS Red between NCIS and NCIS LA making Tuesdays an NCIS night. Moving CSI to fridays is good because a new drama would work better out of Criminal Minds.

  • HV

    Here is my CBS schedule. Thoughts?

    SUNDAY
    7:00 60 Minutes (Sept. 8)
    8:00 The Amazing Race (Sept. 15)
    9:00 The Good Wife (FINAL) (Sept. 22) (22 ep)
    10:00 The Anatomy of Violence (NEW) (Sept. 22) (22 ep–canceled)

    MONDAY
    8:00 How I Met Your Mother (FINAL) (Sept. 23) (24 ep)
    8:30 Gaffigan (NEW) (Sept. 23) (22 ep)//Jacked Up (NEW) (Mar. 31) (8 ep–canceled)
    9:00 2 Broke Girls (Sept. 23) (24 ep)
    9:30 Ex Men (NEW) (Sept. 30) (10 ep–canceled)/Mike & Molly (Jan. 6) (18 ep)
    10:00 Hawaii Five-0 (Sept. 23) (24 ep)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 NCIS (Sept. 17) (24 ep)
    9:00 NCIS: Los Angeles (Sept. 17) (24 ep)
    10:00 NCIS: Los Angeles spin-off (NEW) (Sept. 24) (22 ep)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 Survivor (Sept. 18)/The Mentalist (Jan. 8) (15 ep–canceled)
    9:00 Criminal Minds (Sept. 25) (24 ep)
    10:00 CSI (Sept. 25) (24 ep)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 The Big Bang Theory (Sept. 19) (24 ep)
    8:30 Two and a Half Men (FINAL) (Sept. 26) (24 ep)
    9:00 Person of Interest (Sept. 19) (24 ep)
    10:00 Elementary (Sept. 19) (24 ep)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Undercover Boss (Oct. 11)
    9:00 Second Sight (NEW) (Oct. 4) (22 ep)
    10:00 Blue Bloods (Sept. 27) (24 ep)

    The following comedies get a hour-long premire or air two episodes on premire date:
    2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory

    The following comedies get a hour-long finale or air two episodes on finale date:
    How I Met Your Mother, Two and a Half Men

    The following dramas get a two-hour premire or air two episodes on premire date:
    NCIS, Blue Bloods

    The following dramas get a two-hour finale or air two episodes on finale date:
    NCIS: Los Angeles

  • Fake Me Out

    Is the post Superbowl airing included in Elementary’s ratings or was that a ‘special’ airing? If they are included, I wonder what the index number would be like with just the Thursday episodes included?

    As a Sherlockian I think Elementary is an abomination … if you ignore the fact they’re trying to update Holmes and just look at it as a procedural who’s characters happen to have famous names it isn’t actually that bad.

  • bob

    elementary is way beter than sherlock

  • vegas

    dont cancel vegas, its better than golden boy and csi ny

  • Mon

    @Dan
    Yes you are delusional. Why on earth would CBS move CSI to the worst timeslot on their schedule (Friday 8pm) when they have Undercover Boss that works well there? And how possibly could you tell that CSI has only 2 years left? People have been predicting CSI’s imminent doom ever since William Pettersen left the show but now it is still very much alive.

  • Ultima

    @MaryAnn
    I am not writing off Vegas just yet. I don’t think it is beyond reason that CBS would leave it on Fridays

    Including Criminal Minds, CBS already has ten returning dramas for next season – they don’t have room for any more on their schedule.

    Vegas is doing almost as well as Blue Bloods

    On Fridays, Blue Bloods is doing more than 60% better than Vegas.

  • Ultima

    @Fake Me Out
    Is the post Superbowl airing included in Elementary’s ratings

    No

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