CBS: 'Vegas' Is Certain To Be Canceled; Plus, What Drama Gets Moved To Friday?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


finally-friday-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012-  April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :oops: 0.50
Vegas (some F) :oops: 0.53
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.55
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.56
The Good Wife renewed 0.61
The Mentalist renewed 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.82
CSI renewed 0.86
Elementary renewed 0.88
Rules of Engagement :cry: :cry: 0.95
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.09
Mike & Molly renewed 1.11
Person Of Interest renewed 1.16
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.51
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.15

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There's no suspense left in the remaining CBS drama renewal or cancellation decisions, so all that's left for the Cancellation Bear in these weekly posts is getting some headlines in place that will get some search engine love once frantic fans start searching for their previously canceled shows. Vegas is certain to be canceled. Of course. There still may be those out there believing otherwise. If so, please seek out your local mental health professional.

Since discussing CBS' remaining, and except for RoE, 100% obvious moves, let's go for a discussion in the comments about which current drama will be moved to Friday next fall. CBS is certain to keep Blue Bloods on Friday, and almost certain to premiere a new drama there, but there's no way they put two new dramas there in the Fall, so a current drama's gotta move.

The bear has no way of predicting accurately based on the limited history he has to work with, but I'm sure everyone has their own theories. Have at it!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @vegas
    dont cancel vegas, its better than golden boy and csi ny

    Why do people keep posting comments like this? ALL of those shows are being canceled.

  • marcus

    Sunday

    8:00- 2 Broke Girls
    8:30- Mike and Molly
    9:00- New Drama
    10:00- The Good Wife

    Monday
    8:00- HIMYM
    8:30- New Comedy
    9:00- 2 and 1/2 Half Men
    9:30- New Comedy
    10:00- Elementary

    Tuesday
    8:00- NCIS
    9:00- Criminal Minds
    10:00- Hawaii 5-0

    Weds
    8:00- Amazing Race
    9:00- Survivor
    10:00- CSI

    Thursday
    8:00- Big Bang
    8:30- New Comedy
    9:00- Person of Interest
    10:00- The Mentalist

    Friday
    8:00- NCIS Red
    9:00- Beverly Hills Cop
    10:00- Blue Bloods

  • Benjamin Elliott

    Suggested CBS Schedule:

    Sunday – Fall:
    7PM – Best Of How I Met Your Mother/Football Doubleheader
    7:30PM – Two And A Half Men Season 11/Football Overrun
    8PM – NCIS: LA
    9PM – Unforgettable end of Season 2* (through October)/Survivor (November through February)
    10PM – 60 Minutes

    *Assumes the Summer Sunday run of Unforgettable is successful enough to air all 13 episodes straight. Allows CBS to fill most of the hole between reality cycles on Sunday. If Unforgettable is not successful enough to air 13 straight, Survivor starts September

    Sunday – January/February
    7PM – Two And A Half Men
    7:30PM – New CBS Comedy launches
    8PM – NCIS: LA
    9PM – Survivor/Unforgettable Season 2/New Short Run Reality
    10PM – 60 Minutes

    Sunday – March through May
    7PM – Two And A Half Men
    7:30PM – New Comedy
    8PM – NCIS: LA
    9PM – Survivor (new season) or The Amazing Race (new season)
    10PM – 60 Minutes

    Monday:
    8PM – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30PM – Mom (new)
    9PM – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30PM – Mike And Molly
    10PM – New Drama

    Tuesday:
    8- NCIS
    9PM – NCIS: Red
    10PM – CSI

    Wednesday:
    8PM – The Amazing Race (September)/New Reality (January/February)/Survivor or The Amazing Race (March)
    9PM – Criminal Minds
    10PM – New Drama

    Thursday:
    8PM – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30PM – New Comedy
    9PM – Person Of Interest
    10PM – Elementary

    Friday:
    8PM – Hawaii Five-0
    9PM – The Good Wife
    10PM – Blue Bloods

    Saturday:
    8PM – Crimetime Saturday (repeats and burnoffs – if Unforgettable Season 2 fails, final episodes air here instead of on Sunday)
    9PM – The Mentalist (full season – CBS is the only network that has a chance to make money on Saturday right now, and to have a successful show that they’ve lost enough interest on to risk on the venture)
    10PM – 48 Hours Mystery

    Midseason – Unforgettable Season 3 (if Season 2 works, order more), at least 1 comedy and 1 drama

    Pros:
    Takes advantage of potential Sunday evening Football audience, uses existing shows to try to grow Friday and revive Saturday, uses relatively strong shows and slots to launch new shows
    Cons:
    It requires moving some shows, and there is paranoia about taking a chance on Saturdays

  • alvar

    Elementary will move to 9pm Sunday and new drama will premiere 10pm Thursday. One of The Mentalist or The Good Wife will move to Friday with the other drama filling 10pm Sunday – since CBS’ 10pm Sunday drama is often delayed to air outside of primetime, the poor ratings don’t really matter in that slot.

  • Benjamin Elliott

    Forgot this idea while typing all that up:

    For Sunday with Football and other over-runs:
    1) Start delayed shows at the 5 minute marks (5, 10, 15, etc) rather than random starts
    2) Join repeats in progress (hence the best of Mother idea)
    3) If the over-run reaches the half-way point of a show (15 minutes for comedy, 30 minutes for drama), pre-empt the new episode to get the network back on schedule and make the episode up later
    4) With fewer over-runs, more predictable over-runs, and shows that have more football fan appeal in the 7 to 9PM hours, maybe CBS can have a more stable Sunday audience.

  • todd35

    I hated Beverly Hills Cop the movie, there is no way I’m watching a tv series…

    Come on CBS you have to do better than another cop show drama… And NO more “reality” shows either…

  • Holly

    @todd35,

    Come on CBS you have to do better than another cop show drama…

    While CBS does have more than it’s share of cop shows, they also deliver good ratings for them. Their forays into legal and medical shows haven’t done well lately.

    And NO more “reality” shows either

    Definitely barking up the wrong tree here though. CBS has all of 3 hours of reality shows. That’s by far the lowest among the big 4.

  • Illinois

    @The End

    Thanks !

  • Joe

    Hey everyone I know many here are calling for final seasons for a number of shows but if those shows are profitable to the net they won’t do it….the only show ending for sure is HIMYM period

    With that said, my schedule is below

    Monday
    HIMYM (Final Season)
    2 Broke Girls
    2.5 Men
    Crazy Ones (New)
    NCIS:LA

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS:RED (New)
    Intelligence (New)

    Wednesday
    Survivor
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    The Big Bang Theory
    Super Clyde (New)
    Mom (New)
    Mike&Molly
    Persons of Interest

    Friday
    Undercover Boss
    Elementary
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    The Amazing Race
    The Good Wife
    The Mentalist

  • sally

    I like Criminal Minds and CSI NY,i don’t like Golden Boy,when GB comes on I switch to cable

  • Stuart Pitt

    @mike dobey
    save vegas. it’s by far a better show than the palid ‘golden boy” if they moved it to another night it would do better. they are not giving it a chance.

    Vegas has a good audience based on total viewers. The problem is the viewers are older than the important demographic. The show creators made a mistake when they hired an old cast for their cardboard cutout of a cowboy cop show. Instead of the Sheriff, his brother, and son, it should have been the Sheriff and his two (or three) sons. 20 and 30 somethings don’t watch shows about their parents.

  • catsrule

    @Ryan: The last time CBS moved a freshman show for its second season was the Mentalist.

    This year 2 Broke Girls moved in its 2nd season. I think Elementary should be held for midseason, my schedule is on page 3.

  • Alan 59

    I don’t know why this is even a question, other than the fact that we need SOMETHING to talk about. CBS has already announced that “Hawaii Five-O” summer repeats will air on Fridays at 9:00PM. Every summer, CBS series that are returning in new timeslots get moved to said new real estate at some point during the lazy, hazy, crazy days. Therefore, CBS has effectively already told you which drama is demoted to Fridays, whether you think that it was a good choice or not.

    A more contentious question is, how many new comedies/dramas are joining the fall schedule? My thought is three comedies and two dramas (with Monday at 10:00 and Friday at 8:00 as the most likely holes), but a case can be argued for one comedy (or even two, if you believe that CBS might hold “Mike And Molly” for mid-season) and three dramas.

  • SJ

    Why move The Mentalist and/or The Good Wife? What would be the point? CBS Sundays have got to be a worse spot to be in than Fridays, right?

    Anyway, my vote goes to the show that unexpectedly bled a ton of viewers this season: Hawaii 5-0. If CBS ends up having a successful drama season next year, only one out of The Good Wife, Blue Bloods, Hawaii 5-0 and The Mentalist will live to see Fall 2014…

  • Andrea

    I noticed that they tried The Mentalist on a different night a few weeks ago so maybe they’re testing it in a different time slot. I think The Mentalist is probably an obvious fit on Friday with Blue Bloods. They have the same type of audience and will probably retain viewers into the next hour. I wonder if they would try to run all three NCIS shows on the same night or if that would be overkill? NCIS: LA has a lower audience than the original show and, based on what I saw of the spin-off characters, it’s not going to be strong enough to hold up on its own without a lot of tinkering.

  • Mon

    @SJ
    TGW and/or TM should probably move to improve the night overall. I can’t imagine CBS is happy with their Sunday line-up. 1.5 at 9pm? Ouch. I think Friday is still worse than Sunday because the big 4 networks are still doing better on Sunday than Friday.

  • Ultima

    @Benjamin Elliot
    1) Start delayed shows at the 5 minute marks (5, 10, 15, etc) rather than random starts
    2) Join repeats in progress (hence the best of Mother idea)
    3) If the over-run reaches the half-way point of a show (15 minutes for comedy, 30 minutes for drama), pre-empt the new episode to get the network back on schedule and make the episode up later

    You do understand that counting regional NFL overruns, national NFL doubleheaders and playoffs, March Madness and The Masters, CBS has the potential to have sports run into primetime more than half of the broadcast season, right?

    How does cutting an hour of primetime from its schedule help CBS make money?

    More to the point, since it’s only the 10pm drama that’s actually hurt by the sports overruns – how does cancelling the 10pm drama to avoid airing outside of primetime help that drama?

    CBS has been programming like this for years. 60 Minutes has been in the same timeslot for four decades. It’s not moving and CBS is not going to change how they program Sundays. They clearly do not think there is a problem and there isn’t. Stop trying to fix something that isn’t broken.

    4) With fewer over-runs, more predictable over-runs

    Now you’re in deluded fantasy land. Overruns are not predictable and CBS certainly won’t be cutting back on sports.

  • Ultima

    @Alan
    I don’t know why this is even a question, other than the fact that we need SOMETHING to talk about. CBS has already announced that “Hawaii Five-O” summer repeats will air on Fridays at 9:00PM. Every summer, CBS series that are returning in new timeslots get moved to said new real estate at some point during the lazy, hazy, crazy days. Therefore, CBS has effectively already told you which drama is demoted to Fridays, whether you think that it was a good choice or not.

    Just like Person of Interest moved to Thursday 10pm this season after airing in that timeslot all summer.

    Oh, wait.

  • Ultima

    @catsrule
    I think Elementary should be held for midseason, my schedule is on page 3.

    I read that as “Here’s a completely delusional idea, I have more things you can mock me with on page 3!”

    Why would CBS hold a successful freshman drama for midseason? They need to air 22-24 episodes per year to get it into syndication. That’s how they make money.

  • Tim

    Beverly Hills Cop will be the big CBS project and it will take the best spot, Monday 10 pm. H50 will move to Fridays.
    Hopefully for CBS, Beverly HC will be ever to gain again the viewers H50 lost in these 3 last years,

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