CBS: 'Vegas' Is Certain To Be Canceled; Plus, What Drama Gets Moved To Friday?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


finally-friday-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012-  April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :oops: 0.50
Vegas (some F) :oops: 0.53
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.55
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.56
The Good Wife renewed 0.61
The Mentalist renewed 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.82
CSI renewed 0.86
Elementary renewed 0.88
Rules of Engagement :cry: :cry: 0.95
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.09
Mike & Molly renewed 1.11
Person Of Interest renewed 1.16
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.51
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.15

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There's no suspense left in the remaining CBS drama renewal or cancellation decisions, so all that's left for the Cancellation Bear in these weekly posts is getting some headlines in place that will get some search engine love once frantic fans start searching for their previously canceled shows. Vegas is certain to be canceled. Of course. There still may be those out there believing otherwise. If so, please seek out your local mental health professional.

Since discussing CBS' remaining, and except for RoE, 100% obvious moves, let's go for a discussion in the comments about which current drama will be moved to Friday next fall. CBS is certain to keep Blue Bloods on Friday, and almost certain to premiere a new drama there, but there's no way they put two new dramas there in the Fall, so a current drama's gotta move.

The bear has no way of predicting accurately based on the limited history he has to work with, but I'm sure everyone has their own theories. Have at it!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • catsrule

    Why move The Mentalist and/or The Good Wife? What would be the point?

    As a Mentalist fan I would much rather it air on Fridays without the overruns.

  • catsrule

    Why would CBS hold a successful freshman drama for midseason?

    Elementary isn’t that successful, Scandal easily beats it. The only reason Elementary was renewed was because all their other freshman shows did worse. CBS hasn’t had a breakout hit this year like 2 Broke Girls and Person of Interest last year.

  • Ultima

    @catsrule
    Elementary isn’t that successful, Scandal easily beats it.

    Nonsense. You don’t need to win your timeslot to be successful. NCIS was crushed in its timeslot for seven years and it’s obviously very successful.

    The only reason Elementary was renewed was because all their other freshman shows did worse.

    Nonsense. Elementary is the fifth highest rated drama on CBS. Even if another freshman drama was doing better than it, it would still have been renewed.

  • Mon

    @catsrule
    As a Mentalist fan I would much rather it air on Fridays without the overruns.

    I agree!

  • Spencer

    I think CSI should be moved to friday. It has been on forever and still has a stable audience so I think it would do well for Friday standards. And that opens up the door for CBS to launch a new drama on Wednesdays.

  • Cara

    I believe that CBS will keep The Good Wife and The Mentalist on Sunday night. Vegas and The Golden Boy, if they get renewed, will stay on Friday night. H50 will stay on Monday night.

  • Nick

    What CBS should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: How I Met Your Mother (final season) (24 episodes)
    8:30: Two and a Half Men (17 episodes)*
    9: 2 Broke Girls (24 episodes)
    9:30: Mike & Molly (18 episodes)*
    10: Beverly Hills Cop (new) (13 episodes)

    * Whichever of these does better gets extended to 22 episodes.

    Tue-
    8: NCIS (24 episodes)
    9: Untitled NCIS: LA spinoff (new) (13 episodes)
    10: NCIS: Los Angeles (23 episodes)

    Wed-
    8: Survivor
    9: Criminal Minds (22 episodes)
    10: CSI (23 episodes)

    Thu-
    8: The Big Bang Theory (25 episodes)
    8:30: Mom (new) (13 episodes)
    9: Person of Interest (24 episodes)
    10: Intelligence (new) (13 episodes)

    Fri-
    8: Undercover Boss (22 episodes)
    9: Elementary (22 episodes)
    10: Blue Bloods (22 episodes)

    Sat-
    8: Beverly Hills Cop (R)
    9: Hawaii Five-0 (R)
    10: 48 Hours Mystery

    Sun-
    7: 60 Minutes
    8: The Amazing Race
    9: The Good Wife (13 episodes)
    10: Hawaii Five-0 (22 episodes)

    Midseason – The Mentalist (13 episodes), Crazy Ones (new) (13 episodes)

    Feedback would be greatly appreciated.

  • ryan

    @catsrule

    I meant the last time CBS moved a renewed drama after its first season was the Mentalist, which was moved to allow NCIS LA to air after NCIS. The only other examples I can think of in the past decade or so are Shark being moved to Sundays (and being cancelled) and CSI being moved off of Fridays.

    CBS does not move their schedule around a lot. If they intend to march Elementary to syndication, it will stay at Thursday at 10 PM. I wouldn’t be surprised if H50 stayed on Mondays and CSI stayed on Fridays, and they only moved the Good Wife to Fridays.

  • The Bear OmNomNom

    |CSB likes solidarity. Only two moves. Hawaii Five-O to Fridays. Two and a Half Men to Mondays as they can’t waste that post TBBT spot on a show that will end soon.

    My predictions for 2013-2014:

    Sunday
    8:00 The Amazing Race
    9:00 Hawaii Five-O
    10:00 The Mentalist

    Monday
    8:00 How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 2 Broke Girls
    9:00 Two and a Half Men
    9:30 The Crazy Ones (NEW)
    10:00 Beverly Hills Cop (NEW)

    Tuesday
    8:00 NCIS
    9:00 NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00 Intelligence (NEW)

    Wednesday
    8:00 Survivor
    9:00 Criminal Minds
    10:00 CSI: Crime Scene Investigation

    Thursday
    8:00 The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 Mom (NEW)
    9:00 Person of Interest
    10:00 Elementary

    Friday
    8:00 The Good Wife
    9:00 The Surgeon General (NEW)
    10:00 Blue Bloods

    MIDSEASON
    Anatomy of Violence (NEW)
    Mike & Molly (18 eps)
    Undercover Boss

  • SJ

    @Mon

    Nothing is going to get traction on Sundays due to the overruns in the fall. If CBS moves something away from Sunday, they’ll also have to move a Mon-Thu drama to Sunday. I’m guessing the most likely candidates are NCIS:LA and CSI, both of which, I’m guessing, would have a hard time cracking a 2.0 rating.

    A Friday line-up consisting of Undercover Boss, CSI and Blue Bloods would likely be a strong one, and is ultimately what I expect to see in 2014-2015. But CSI is a stronger show than Hawaii 5-0. It should spend one more season on Wednesdays before moving to Friday.

  • Ultima

    @SJ
    Nothing is going to get traction on Sundays due to the overruns in the fall.

    CBS has overruns in the winter and spring as well. Excluding the 10pm show, those overruns have no negative effect on CBS’ primetime programming.

    Sure, some people can’t figure out how to DVR the night, but they’re probably the same people who can’t figure out if their shows are new or repeats.

  • Downeast

    So much not to watch some nights, just drop reality shows, not funny comedies and 90 Minutre…with present offerings watch only small.number of shows cannot do.much worst!

  • Mon

    @SJ
    Nothing is going to get traction on Sundays due to the overruns in the fall. If CBS moves something away from Sunday, they’ll also have to move a Mon-Thu drama to Sunday. I’m guessing the most likely candidates are NCIS:LA and CSI, both of which, I’m guessing, would have a hard time cracking a 2.0 rating

    I think you are underestimating NCIS: LA or CSI. I think they would be able to crack a 2.0 because Sunday has higher 18-49 population than their current respective nights, and they are able to stay above 2.0 against full competition. CBS could fix their Sunday line-up by putting a show that is widely recognizable like CSI or Hawaii Five-0 at 9pm. I think families would likely watch those shows together on Sunday rather than shows like The Good Wife. Well, CSI is too dark for Sunday so I guess that leaves Hawaii Five-0 or like you said NCIS: LA but that would leave 2 hours to fill on Tuesday.

  • KJ Styles

    I predict the Good Wife and Hawaii 5-0 both get moved to Fridays. Good Wife will have a 13 episode final season and then Undercover Boss will take over.

  • KJ Styles

    I don’t see a new drama premiering on Fridays in the fall, because they have all failed recently and CBS isn’t foolish enough to think that one will work this time…or at least I hope they wouldn’t think so. So I’m going with Good Wife and H50 to move to Fridays.

  • Nick

    @KJ Styles

    they have all failed recently and CBS isn’t foolish enough to think that one will work this time…

    Yeah, just like CBS wasn’t foolish enough last year, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before that. Out of all the networks, CBS is the least likely to fix its death slot problem on Fridays, just because they’re the most stubborn.

    People say every year that the networks are going to fix their death slots. Next year, I predict we’ll find Intelligence on CBS Fridays @ 8, S.H.E.I.L.D on ABC Thursdays @ 8, Dracula on NBC Fridays @8, and After Hours on NBC Thursdays @10. NBC has voiced publicly that they will have a drama in the Thursday death slot next year. None of these networks are going to solve their death slots, least of all CBS.

  • John

    I’m enjoying all these people who seem to think that Elementary is going to move to Friday. Not going to happen. I’m not saying it won’t move (though honestly, I think they should just leave it where it is, as it’s doing fine), and I’ll accept any day from Sunday through Thursday. But not Friday. Come on. Oh, and it won’t be held until mid-season either.

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    I like it very much. Minor things:

    1. I would swap the good wife and hawaii five-0. I feel like the good wife would do better as a 10pm show and H50 would probably benefit more from TAR’s lead in (especially when propped by sports) than TGW.

    2. I don’t believe they will hold the mentalist for midseason. But it doesn’t change your fundamental schedule, since it can just take the spot of undercover boss on fridays.

    3. I would hold Mike and Molly for midseason and turn it into the new rules of engagement and premiere another comedy right away. They have way too many high profile comedies this year to premiere just one in the fall.

    4. I am not that sold in Red. I think we are in for another CM: Suspect Behaviour. I think they will pick it up, but I would hold it for midseason and premiere something else instead.

    But overall I like it very much.

  • Greg

    I think I read that Hawaii Five-O is going to air on Fridays during the summer when Under the Dome premieres. If that is the case, I would assume that CBS is planning on Hawaii Five-O airing on Fridays next season. It would make sense to build an audience on Fridays rather than move it again to Sundays. Thoughts?

  • Holly

    @Greg,

    I think I read that Hawaii Five-O is going to air on Fridays during the summer when Under the Dome premieres. If that is the case, I would assume that CBS is planning on Hawaii Five-O airing on Fridays next season. It would make sense to build an audience on Fridays rather than move it again to Sundays. Thoughts?

    Not necessarily. Monday is a better place for Under the Dome than Friday. Moving 5-0 is just scheduling jenga.

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