CW: 'Nikita' Is Certain To Be Renewed; The Number Of Episodes It Gets Is Irrelevant To The Bear

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


short-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.60
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.96
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear has had Nikita predicted as "likely to be renewed" all season. Once the show was renewed for a third season (the current one) a fourth season was required to satisfy the syndication gods. Now, with just two weeks before our final guesses, the change to "certain to be renewed" gives the bear an easy headline.

There have been various reports circulating that Nikita would get a short final season of less than 22 episodes. The bear both ignores such reports (as he does all rumors), and doesn't care. The bear doesn't try and predict how many episodes will be ordered.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Illinois

    Nikita needs, at least, 21 episodes to reach 88. I think The CW will order 22 episodes but the Show will premiere its 4th season in mid-october like it did this year.

  • David

    Nikita still only has 4 smilies….

  • were123

    You forgot to change the emoticons for Nikita, it still seems to be likely renewal. Just saying ;)

  • Just Desserts

    It still says 4 smiles…

  • halloween

    sad when cw is forced to renew shows getting .3-.6. How low will the bar be next year .2-.4?

  • MilfordMan

    I always thought that Nikita did pretty well considering it was on Fridays. I hope the ratings improve, or at least stay consistent next season. :D

  • ForceChoke

    How many episodes are required for syndication? I thought it was 88. If that’s the case, the season can’t be very much shorter. They’d need 21 episodes. I hope they announce it as the final season if they’re definitely not giving it a short 5th season.

  • JacobYates

    @Halloween
    Nikita wouldn’t be under certain renewal if it were in Season 2 with those ratings. It’s not setting a new standard. Plus, .3-.6 is likely cancelled on any other day of the week but Friday.

  • CrazedNovelist

    @halloween. Nikita does amazingly well in its Friday slot. It even boasts ratings by beating shows outside of the Friday @8PM slot, making it really equivalent to a .7 or .8 during the week. Nikita also has a high number over viewers, above CW’s average. :)

  • Wright

    Nikita is a great show. I’m very happy it is certain to be renewed. Hopefully for a full season.

  • nikitafan

    You can reach syndication with fewer than 88. Some people are saying this show only needs 80 so that would mean that 13 episodes gets it to syndication. I don’t know what else they would put on a Friday night though. Nikita seems to have a pretty steady audience. The ratings for all of their shows have gone down this season so Nikita is no different. They could move B&B to Friday after Nikita but would they really put something else in it’s place at this point? Putting it on Friday in only it’s second season was their biggest mistake I think. I also wonder if they really lost a significant number of their steady viewers after what happened in the last episode. Many were unhappy about the death choice. I hope it gets one last full season.

  • Neil

    Scary Bear picture.

  • Charmed

    Why does it have to be 88? Shows have been syndicated with less.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Nikita still only has 4 smilies….”

    Emoticon error! Emoticon error! ;)

    Now fixed.

  • JacobYates

    @ForceChoke
    88 isn’t required, several shows have gotten away with fewer. 88 is just the number where syndication is almost a guarantee. If a network offers to purchase only 80 episodes, then they will make up to 80. They’ll take what they can, but a network would probably not want to purchase 88 episodes of an already low rated Friday night show.

  • starship

    @ForceChoke

    There are zero requirements for syndication. In theory Nikita could just as easily get a syndication deal now at the end of season 3, as it can get no syndication deal even with 88 episodes. If it gets a shortened season, it’ll be because the CW think they have something that will get better ratings to put on Friday at 8, that will have zero effect on its syndication chances.

    At this point the fate of BatB is the only difficult and exciting thing to predict, without knowing what pilots they’ll pick up.

  • Sabrina

    I think CW/WB is trying very hard to get a syndication deal with SyFy channel. It is really the only explanation for the show’s change of direction in storylines. They are getting heavier science fiction based.

  • Dan

    It may as well be for a full season, if theyve aired 66 and theres talks of a short 13 episode season why not just produce the extra 9 episodes to make it 22. That would give it 88 and it will last the series in the Friday 8 timeslot through May 2014.

    Same with Hart of Dixie for the next 2 seasons, the show has aired 2 full seasons it can air 1 more.

    Still not sure what to make of TCD and BATB, its up to The CW now but Nikita & Hart of Dixie are both certain to return.

  • Mary

    The CW network is likely to be canceled because it fails to renew and cancel shows mediocre and ugly as: B&B , Nikita , HOD !

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    What’s with the naughty bear graphic lol? I know it’s to show that the bear is mad that it can’t eat nikita but it just looks funny.

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