CW: 'Nikita' Is Certain To Be Renewed; The Number Of Episodes It Gets Is Irrelevant To The Bear

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


short-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.60
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.96
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

-
The Cancellation Bear has had Nikita predicted as "likely to be renewed" all season. Once the show was renewed for a third season (the current one) a fourth season was required to satisfy the syndication gods. Now, with just two weeks before our final guesses, the change to "certain to be renewed" gives the bear an easy headline.

There have been various reports circulating that Nikita would get a short final season of less than 22 episodes. The bear both ignores such reports (as he does all rumors), and doesn't care. The bear doesn't try and predict how many episodes will be ordered.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • omabin

    Nikita will be renewed for a 22 episode season, nothing else makes sense.

    My ideal schedule for the CW:

    Monday
    The Hundred
    The Tomorrow People

    Tuesday
    The Selection
    Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    Nikita
    ANTM (End of Season)/ Repeats

  • juliedawn

    Best Bear pic EVER!

  • Fake Me Out

    @nikitafan

    …Putting it on Friday in only it’s second season was their biggest mistake I think.

    And I think renewing it for a third season putting them in this mess was their biggest mistake …

    And for others saying the 0.3~0.4 is good for Fridays and they can’t do better … ummmm, Smallville & Supernatural … shows 2-3 times older getting 2-3 times the ratings within just the last few seasons … the CW getting Nikita numbers on Friday has occurred simply because they air Nikita on Fridays … it’s a self fulfilling prophecy.

    ymmv

    PS: Remember, I’m attacking Nikita’s numbers not the quality of the show … I don’t watch it so I don’t care other than it’s weakness weakens the network as a whole which puts shows I do watch in jeopardy.

  • Jamie

    I think The CW should do something like this:

    Monday
    8pm Oxygen (new series)
    9pm Supernatural (new night)

    Tuesday
    8pm Hart of Dixie
    9pm America’s Next Top Model

    Wednesday
    8pm Arrow
    9pm Tomorrow People (new series)

    Thursday
    8pm The Vampire Diaries
    9pm The Originals (new series)

    Friday
    8pm Nikita: the final chapter
    9pm Beauty and the Beast (new night)

    Reign can join Tuesdays in midseason and The 100 can take over from whatever fails.

  • charmedcraft

    what a waste of air time; good thing its on fridays.

  • Kavyn

    Nikita’s going to get its 21+ episodes. They’d be stupid not to.

  • Funeral Dinner

    0.3′s for Nikita even on a Friday is still terrible, it should be able to manage 0.5′s in it’s 3rd season.

  • Bern

    The CW will order 22 episodes/final season.

    For me I wish its 22 episodes for 4th season and a final 5th season of 13 episodes.

  • DenverDean

    Flashpoint – 75, The Unit – 69. Both syndicated. Nikita is at 67 (people forget it got 23). It does not need 88. I’d like to see it get more than 10, but at this point, any renewal is a positive. A lot has to do with CW development and, based on early word, a lot of pilots are not in great shape.

  • reallypeople

    @DenverDean

    Bingo. That’s the real reason why Nikita won’t get just a shortened season. The pilots, right now, aren’t in great shape. And, they are all way too focused on sci-fi. Nikita will get the full season… and was always going to… not because of the ratings, or syndication… but because, right now, they have nothing to really stick there. The CW has enough holes to fill, along with eventually they will need to program summer scripted television (they aren’t there yet), that they won’t lose the front or back half of a Friday hour.

  • Melanie

    I may be wrong — but I believe when talking about being sold into syndication, what is meant is that it will be in off network stripped syndication IE showing every day, 5 days a week. For that, 88 episodes or more is needed.
    Sure a show with fewer episodes can be sold – like Firefly with only 14 episodes, but its not the same thing as the per episode revenue that the Big Bang Theory or NCIS or Castle get in stripped syndication.

  • Z

    Remember last year Nikita was the second lowest rated show behind Ringer and now it is ahead of three shows and coming close to Gossip Girl. Although a .3 – .4 isn’t good, but the CW is in worst shape than it was last year.

  • starship

    @DenverDean

    Where did you get that info from, the only comments about the new pilots I’ve seen are from Deadline, where they have put a big disclaimer on top saying their sources are subjective. Anyway, even they say The Originals, Tomorrow People, Reign, and Oxygen are looking great, with The Selection and The 100 being a bit less than stellar, but still in the running, that’s 6/8 right there.

  • Olka

    I love that bear.
    Scary but very funny :).

  • Melody

    I don’t care if Nikita gets a full season order or not, as long as if it is the final season that they announce it ahead of time. For the most part, The CW tries to appease the fans. That’s all I want here so that the writers can craft a good ending to the series.

  • João Lucas

    I guess Nikita will get renewal for the next 2 seasons until The CW get anothers strongers shows.Cause now The CW has less than 6 hours for the next season,so this make sense.

  • Beauty&theFlop

    Why do you have Beauty & the Beast as more likely to be renewed? it only scored a 0.6 when it returned with a new episode last week compared to Vampire Diaries adjusting up to a 1.0

    How is a 0.6 on the back of that rating a shoe in for renewal? if was getting a 0.7 at least I would agree with your prediction but as of now its still a huge flop.

  • Kissan

    Here is my Fall 2013 Schedule for the CW:

    Monday

    8:00-Oxygen(new drama)

    9:00-Hart Of Dixie

    Tuesday

    8:00-The Selection(new drama)

    9:00-Supernatural

    Wednesday

    8:00-Arrow

    9:00-The Tomorrow People(new drama)

    Thursday

    8:00-The Vampire Diaries

    9:00-The Originals(new drama)

    Friday

    8:00-Nikita(final season)

    9:00-ANTM(Aug.to Nov.)

  • pal

    Nikita is doing quite well for a Friday show and a CW show. These days the survival of CW as a network worry me more than some shows, especially when its highest rated show tvd can now only muster up a 1.0 (it premiered at a glorious 2.0, I remember) and the ratings for all of its shows just get lower every season.

  • JJA

    Of course Nikita can only get a partial season 4. There is no guarantee for a full 22 episodes.

    Consider, for example, the shows on SyFy never make it to 88 episodes, but you can still catch their re-runs. Battlestar Galactica, for example, only has 75 episodes total.

    If Nikita gets 10 episodes in season 4, it will have a total of 77 (same as Eureka, and 2 more than BSG).

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures