CW: 'Nikita' Is Certain To Be Renewed; The Number Of Episodes It Gets Is Irrelevant To The Bear

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


short-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.60
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.96
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear has had Nikita predicted as "likely to be renewed" all season. Once the show was renewed for a third season (the current one) a fourth season was required to satisfy the syndication gods. Now, with just two weeks before our final guesses, the change to "certain to be renewed" gives the bear an easy headline.

There have been various reports circulating that Nikita would get a short final season of less than 22 episodes. The bear both ignores such reports (as he does all rumors), and doesn't care. The bear doesn't try and predict how many episodes will be ordered.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Kate

    Nikita fans should be happy with whatever number they end up getting as this show has not deserved a renewal for some time now.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    People who believe the short season rumors are just Nikita haters who are trying to appear superior at predicting. They’ll look like fools when Nikita gets 22 episodes – and BATB gets at most a 13-episode spring season. :-)

    Idiots don’t realize the CW exists to produce syndication properties for its owners – WBTVwho produces Nikita and is half owner of the network – so the network has very little say in whether they can accept a low license fee for a fourth season.

    So instead we have fools chanting “why 88. why 88″ every week instead of “Nikita adjusts down, Nikita adjusts down”. Give it a rest, clowns.

    TCD is just as dead as it was last week, idiots not withstanding.

    BATB appears to have stabilized at .6, so the CW might be stupid enough to renew it. I certainly hope not.

    Death to BATB!

  • Name

    I want emily owens MD back :(. Nikita did not have better numbers, I watch it and the 3th season has to be the worst of all seasons.

  • thesnowleopard

    @CrazedNovelist

    Bull. Supernatural did better at 9pm than Nikita did at 8pm on the same nights last season. Smallville also did better than most CW shows in the 8pm slot when it was on. When the CW tried to move Nikita to 9pm last fall, the show got creamed in the ratings. Repeats in that slot can do as well.

    There is no way that the Friday Factor, such as it is, means that Nikita would get over twice the rating it gets now on other nights. In fact, there is nothing about Nikita’s performance to indicate it would do better at all.

    As some have already pointed out, if Nikita gets renewed, it will very likely be for schedule spackling purposes, and because the studio has juggled costs and potential future syndication revenues to make a final season worth it. It will be in spite of its dismal ratings, not because of them.

  • Melanie

    @gem is truly outrageous

    Stripped syndication — which is what the production company hopes for — is 88-100 episodes and it makes a big difference in the potential revenue. That’s why the 100th episode is a big milestone. Can a show with fewer episodes be sold? Sure. But the revenue won’t be as much. The more episodes, the more revenue.

  • evesix

    Ugh… Why? This show gets the worst ratings CW has…

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Man, I can’t wait for the Nikita renewal. Some idiots here are really going to be eating crow. LOL

  • Nerdbot

    When the rumours about Nikita’s renewal for a shorter season appeared, I was like “I don’t want 13 episodes, I want 22.” However, now the only thing that matters to me is the fact that it will be renewed and that it will be the final season. After all, I just wanted a proper ending for the show. It won’t be after 100 episodes (I hoped it could happen), but it’ll happen anyway, so it’s fine for me.

  • Claudia

    I will lmao when BATB gets a full season and Nikita 10 if any, since there are rumors they can even syndicate as it is right now bec CW wants to end the misery of sinking the show below .3 on its fourth season on top of not selling international anymore either.

  • Dave

    @Claudia

    Keep “LYAO”

    Beauty and the Beast won’t go beyond Season 2. :D

  • Claudia

    @Dave
    Believe me I used to like Nikita a lot, and Im not hating on the show but some of its fans, spec the ones posting here bashing on other shows when Nikita alone is doing so poorly, and as much as I liked it its not a show you will follow with passion for 5 seasons, I grew out of it after 2nd. season and Im in a honey moon with BATB right now probably 2 seasons will be enough or maybe not. A show with weak ratings will stay on air if they have a passionate fandom to support it, ie SPN, Smallville, Castle,etc. they are not the best shows out there but fans will help either way. And honestly Nikita sadly lacks in ratings & fans at this moment so its time to move on.

  • ryan

    Smallville and Supernatural were veteran series when they moved to Friday. The only shows that would significantly outperform Nikita (read: doing more than just a tenth higher) on Friday are TVD, SPN, and Arrow. They aren’t moving to Fridays, and the CW isn’t foolish enough to launch a new show on Fridays (or are they…?).

    I have to wonder what percentage of BATB viewers are fans versus casual viewers. If, for example, .5 of the .6 viewers are fans who will watch live no matter where the show is, then the CW might renew it for Fridays. Getting .4 to .6 wouldn’t be terrible.

    My predictions:
    Monday
    8:00 PM – The Tomorrow People (new)
    9:00 PM – The Hundred (new)

    Tuesday
    8:00 PM – ANTM (for the fall)
    9:00 PM – Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday
    8:00 PM – Arrow
    9:00 PM – Supernatural (where it will live out for seasons 9 and 10)

    Thursday
    8:00 PM – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 PM – The Originals (new)

    Friday
    8:00 PM – Nikita (full final 22 episode season)
    9:00 PM – Beauty and the Beast (13 episode initial order)

    This season of ANTM is supposed to be both girls and guys, so it might be buzzy enough to air during the week. Oxygen and Reign held for midseason, one of them for Tuesday.

  • Jonay

    If president Barack Obama called up a network such as The CW and ask to renew a show such as The Carrie Diaries would the network have to?????

  • Dave

    @Jonay

    Lol I don’t think so.

  • JJA

    Just so long as Nikita gets a season 4, I’ll be happy. Still, a full 22 episode season would be awesome.

    My new show predictions:
    -The Originals (fall)
    -The Tomorrow People (fall)
    -Oxygen (fall or midseason)
    -The Hundred (fall or midseason)
    -Reign (midseason)

  • Jack Bauer

    Hope Nikita gets renewed for a shortened final season. Hate to see Beauty and the Beast get renewed and I hope Carrie Diaries gets canceled soon.

  • Anouchka

    @Jonay: lol, The president will never call CW to renew TCD, because this show is kind of ****, and I hope it gets cancel soon. ( sr for my bad English)

  • Jon

    Why does the CW continue to renew next top model?

  • alexx

    i absolutely love this show more than glee or arrow combined. it’s one of the best in my lifetime probably. hope it reaches season 5 at least!! more people should watch it!

  • Brandy

    @Jon, cause it get the same 0.4-0.6 as most of the rest of thier shows,reality shows are cheaper to produce than scripted,it’s thier longest running only sucsessful reality show(though it started on upn) and it makes money in syndication, in DVD/merchandise sales.

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