CW: 'Nikita' Is Certain To Be Renewed; The Number Of Episodes It Gets Is Irrelevant To The Bear

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


short-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.60
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.96
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear has had Nikita predicted as "likely to be renewed" all season. Once the show was renewed for a third season (the current one) a fourth season was required to satisfy the syndication gods. Now, with just two weeks before our final guesses, the change to "certain to be renewed" gives the bear an easy headline.

There have been various reports circulating that Nikita would get a short final season of less than 22 episodes. The bear both ignores such reports (as he does all rumors), and doesn't care. The bear doesn't try and predict how many episodes will be ordered.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dillan

    As a fan of TSC last year, I find it quite bizarre how B&TB got renewed (especially because it got a 0.5 last night). But, happy for the fans because I know they’re very devoted.

    The Originals was obvious, and glad for Hart of Dixie. If you told me in September 2012 when HoD premiered that it would be getting a 3rd season, I would have not believed you!

  • frank5869

    Ordering a full season of The Vampire Diaries spin-off The Originals and having cancelled The Secret Circle which is based on books from the same author it’s beyond stupid.
    And it just shows how much mafia along with its dirty business is there at the managers level. With no law and no rules. And investors a bunch of sheep with no guts either.

  • HV

    After these recent renewals will The Carrie Diaries move to certain to be canceled?

  • Bliss

    @ HV

    sadly I think it might, be true. The only way I think it could be renewed is if it is for the summer (since if I recall correctly there was an article saying that the president is always looking for scripted tv for the summer or online only.

    However if by some miracle it makes its way on the schedule in the fall or spring it might be a potential show for Friday or it will be a mid-season replacement.

  • Jeff

    With CW Schedule the way it is like RHS said CW has other nights to worry about fixing Monday and Tuesdays. For now Wednesdays are fine and Supernatural is going into their 9th season so I think keeping it with Arrow allowing fans to watch these 2 shows and build Arrow to be strong for when supernatural is not around. Thursdays next year is going to be fixed with TVD and the Originals. Fridays are going to be Nikita and either BATB or Repeats. Monday and Tuesdays should be fixed now because the Wednesdays and Thursdays shows wont last forever and its better to stabilize the other nights for when TVD and Vampire Diaries End so CW doesnt have 4 days a week that dont work.

  • Jeff

    I meant Supernatural not the second TVD at the end

  • Revenger

    @Jeff I totally agree they definantly need to fix their Mondays and Tuesday, but especially .90210 wasn’t doing great at 8 on Monday, but when they moved it to 9 they killed it. They need to somehow fix the death slots or the entire network will fall.

  • sheila

    i think nikita is a great show as was fringe which they ended up w/a final season of 13 episodes. it is unfortunate that fun, smart shows such as nikita & fringe have a small audience following while shows like the bachelor, bachelorette, wife swap etc get gr8 ratings or is it because they are cheap to produce. sad state of affairs for tv in general when we lose intelligent, imaginative & creative shows for dull, unimaginative mock reality shows. example of a show that was terrific & got cancelled in less than a year: firefly. farscape was another show that struggled w/ratings. tv is fast becoming a wasteland of brain drain shows.

  • anon

    Yeah it seems like network TV is becoming a wasteland for the vast majority,while a majority of the more intelligent & obscure programming ends up on cable or exclusively streaming on Netflix now. :|

    Interestingly enough, ‘older shows’ (ie ones that were aired & canceled more than a decade ago) are suddenly drawing whole new crops of fans who find them on Netflix and few them en mass, then complain that they were canceled back in the day.

  • Anthony

    I’ll be really diappointed if Nikita gets canceled, but I think the CW will do a final Season 4. The show is really good, but it doesn’t have the same WOW factor as Seasons 1 & 2. Not sure why this show never really caught on with most people, but it’s good to know it has a small and loyal following

  • Kate

    Did The Originals really get a full season? I thought ordered to season/series meant only the initial 13 episodes. Not that it matters, anyway, it would get the back 9 regardless of how mediocre it performs. Which it will/

  • Steve

    I’m happy that Nikita is likely to be renewed. I love what they’ve done so far this season and it’ll be exciting to see what happens next.

  • Rachel

    via @Deadline

    The CW already kicked off the new series pickup season on Friday with an order to The Vampire Diaries spinoff The Originals. Vying to join it are two futuristic/sci-fi dramas, The Tomorrow People and The 100 and royal teen soap Reign. Just renewed Beauty And The Beast has a potential new companion in another drama about an unlikely pair of star-crossed lovers, the human-alien romance Oxygen. For now, The Selection 2.0 seems to be following the trajectory of the original pilot unless it gets a last-minute boost.

    Looking like The Selection, Blink and Company town are the odd men out.

  • Rachel

    The only way I could see what deadline reported working is if this happens:

    Monday:
    Oxygen/B&tB

    Tuesday:
    Hart/Reign

    Wednesday:
    Arrow/Tomorrow People

    Thursday:
    TVD/Originals

    Friday:
    Supernatural/Nikita(? # Episodes) then ANTM

    Midseason: The 100

    But so many people are convinced they wouldn’t stick Supernatural back on Fridays (even though it is the only show that got ratings there). I’m interested to see what they do.

  • Anyanka

    @Rachel

    My guess is that the CW only premieres 3 new shows, including the Originals, along with the 5 renewed shows, Nikita, and ANTM. If they really want an Oxygen/BATB weekday pairing, which I think is a mistake since BATB should be sent to Fridays to die, it would look something like this:

    Monday: Oxygen/BATB
    Tuesday: The Tomorrow People/HOD
    Wednesday: Arrow/Supernatural
    Thursday: TVD/Originals
    Friday: Nikita/ANTM and repeats
    Midseason: The 100 and Reign

    I think that’s a bad schedule because a midseason show has to move to Friday or else BATB or HOD have to move to Friday midseason assuming two or more of the three new drams get full season orders. It would be better to banish BATB or HOD to Friday at the beginning of the season to avoid all the extra schedule shuffling.

    What I would do:

    Monday: The Tomorrow People/The 100
    Tuesday: ANTM/HOD
    Wednesday: Arrow/Supernatural
    Thursday: TVD/Originals
    Friday: Nikita/BATB
    Midseason: Oxygen and Reign

    This way one of the shows goes to Tuesday with an easy transition. The other could go to replace a failed pilot or else could go to Friday to replace either BATB or Nikita if one only gets a 13 episode order. Alternatively HOD could replace BATB or Nikita on Fridays while another midseason moves to Tuesday, but again, that’s a lot of movement.

  • Liz

    Monday
    Hart of Dixie
    Oxygen or Reign

    Tuesday
    The Tomorrow People
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    The 100

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    Beauty and the Beast
    ANTM (Aug-Nov)/Nikita (final 13 eps)

    Midseason
    Reign or Oxygen, Oh Sit! or another cycle of ANTM

  • Rachel

    The thing about shipping Beauty and the Beast off to Fridays is that it defeats the purpose of renewing it. They may as well had just cancelled it if they were gonna do that. Which is probably why Deadline is saying it might be put with Oxygen.

  • Rachel

    @Anyanka

    The second schedule you did looks good. I didn’t even think of the HOD/ANTM pairing.

  • Holly

    @Rachel,

    The thing about shipping Beauty and the Beast off to Fridays is that it defeats the purpose of renewing it.

    That depends on the purpose. If the CW renewed it to fill an hour rather than launch 4-5 new shows, then moving to Friday doesn’t hurt the purpose at all. If the CW renewed it as a companion to one of their new shows, then your argument is valid. But at this point, we don’t know why they renewed it, so we can’t say whether a move would be counterproductive.

    Oh, and while the Deadline articles are fun to read, I wouldn’t put too much stock in them. A lot of their information comes from people with a vested interest in making this pilot or that look good and even accurate information can change very, very quickly in the next couple of weeks.

  • Spen B

    MONDAY
    8: NEW DRAMA
    9: Supernatural

    TUESDAY
    8: Hart of Dixie
    9: BATB

    WEDNESDAY
    8: Arrow
    9: NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8: TVD
    9: NEW DRAMA (The Originals)

    FRIDAY
    8: Nikita
    9: Oh Sit! (delayed start, used as replacement if necessary)

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