CW: 'Nikita' Is Certain To Be Renewed; The Number Of Episodes It Gets Is Irrelevant To The Bear

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


short-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.60
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) (renewed 4/26) 0.96
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear has had Nikita predicted as "likely to be renewed" all season. Once the show was renewed for a third season (the current one) a fourth season was required to satisfy the syndication gods. Now, with just two weeks before our final guesses, the change to "certain to be renewed" gives the bear an easy headline.

There have been various reports circulating that Nikita would get a short final season of less than 22 episodes. The bear both ignores such reports (as he does all rumors), and doesn't care. The bear doesn't try and predict how many episodes will be ordered.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • D

    Monday
    8: Reign
    9: Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    8: The Tomorrow People
    9: Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8: Arrow
    9: The 100

    Thursday
    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Originals

    Friday
    8: Beauty and the Beast
    9: Nikita (final season, 21 eps)

    Midseason/Replacement: The Selection / Oxygen
    Summer: ANTM

    I’m the biggest Nikita fan, but let’s be honest: the ratings are terrible no matter what timeslot on friday, so the CW should let it end at the 9pm slot (with probably 0.2s and 0.3s all season, which is not much worse than the current situation) and give BATB the chance to survive like Nikita did in the 8pm slot (hopefully with solid 0.4s and some 0.5s). Give it a 13 + 9 episode order. If it’s bad, cancel after 13 and get Nikita back to the 8pm slot.

  • Kate

    If Nikita is pulling 0.3s and under a million now, why would they give it 21 episodes? I think it gets 10-13 and they try and launch a new show. Deadline listed 4 pilots in addition to TO that are in solid contention to be ordered to series. That’s 5 new shows, I don’t think there’s room for a full season of Nikita.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    D: That might be a plan for BATB if it’s moved to Friday. However, the problem with giving it the 8PM slot is that it’s not going to do any better than Nikita. If moved to Friday, BATB will do at best .4-.5 early in its season (f not .3) and likely drop to .3 by the end regardless of time slot. BATB has ZERO chance of survival into season three unless the CW is desperate to fill Friday once Nikita has ended its run (which I suppose is possible.) So from the point of view of BATB it really doesn’t matter what time slot it gets on Friday.

    So they might as well give it the 9PM slot and let Nikita continue to do .3-.4 at 8PM (assuming Nikita remains stable in season four.)

    Personally I think they will try BATB on another week night first, hoping it will pull at least .5-.6 for most of the season. I don’t think it will. I think it will do as badly as it would on Friday and get moved there by mid-season.

  • halloween

    probably not a good idea that cw will have 3 shows doing .5 or less next season with Hod, Batb and probably Nikita. Originals probably won’t flop but probably will be disappointing. I’m guessing whatever new show they put after Arrow might produce a hit

  • Abigail

    Monday
    8pm: Reign
    9pm: Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    8pm: The 100
    9pm: Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8pm: Arrow
    9pm: The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    8pm: The Vampire Diaries
    9pm: The Originals

    Friday
    8pm: Nikita
    9pm: Beauty and the Beast

  • Kate

    @Halloween exactly. HOD has remained steady for the most part (I think?) but I can see it averaging a 0.5 next season. And I think without the TVD lead in BATB will suffer as well and probably pull between 0.4-0.6. They may have a loyal fanbase, but I don’t think the ENTIRE fanbase will travel with it to whatever night it ends up on.

    It’s weird. Last pilot season everyone figured Arrow would be a hit, but nothing from their new crop of pilots really sticks out to me the way that did. TO may start out strong but I don’t think it will stay that way. I just don’t think any of their pilots have that “it” factor that will produce another hit (by this network’s standards, that is). As of now, I don’t plan on watching anything on the network next year.

  • Tom

    @RSH

    The obvious fact is that the CW didn’t renew B&B so much as get stuck with it. If B&B ends up on Friday, it’ll be because the CBS/WB joint venture desperately needs product to feed its Netflix, Hulu and other online sales commitments. Ratings has nothing to do with it. Other than Arrow, all of the CW’s new shows this season were DOA. That means B&B was literally the one remaining low rated show from which the joint venture could wring any online revenue. Also, it’s questionable if the joint venture receives the funding necessary to replace both the failed new series that bombed and B&B. The Beastlings like to kid themselves about having influenced the CW’s decision to renew B&B, but it’s unlikely that Pedowitz et al. would have done so if they had any other realistic options.

  • Restless

    Nikita’s not likely to be stable. It’s dropped like 50% every season. This season it’s pulling a 0.3 average, last season it had a 0.5 average, the season before that 0.9 average (admittedly behind Vampire Diaries). No matter what time slot Nikita’s in, it’s gonna do horrible. Might as well put the show that’s expected to last more than merely the next season in the 8 pm time slot so it has a higher lead-in from syndicated reruns.

    And speaking of that, I think they should put Hart of Dixie on Fridays with Nikita. All three of these shows, Nikita, Hart of Dixie and Beauty and the Beast are probably not going to make it past four seasons. So Nikita’s last season can be paired with Hart of Dixie, then Hart of Dixie’s last season can be with Beauty and the Beast.

    Not that I think Beauty and the Beast has any real chance of growing, but Hart of Dixie isn’t either since it’s dropped a bit in it’s season average, so might as well try the slightly younger show rather than dump it on Fridays right away.

    And hopefully Who’s Line Is It Anyway does wonderful this summer and will take the place of Oh Sit or America’s Next Top Model as potential fall filler for failing freshmen. :)

  • Restless

    Oh that’s if they choose to split up Arrow and Supernatural, of course. If they don’t, there’s no reason Nikita can’t start with a reality overran show like this year and Beauty and the Beast move to the now void of returning veterans Mondays, with Hart of Dixie sticking to Tuesdays.

    Because if they don’t split up Arrow and Supernatural, and yet move another show to Fridays, they’ll have to have a complete newbies night (or reality overrun on a weeknight, which honestly would make me thrilled if Whos Line did that well that they’d want to do that) and despite all the fantasy schedules to the contrary I don’t see two new dramas on Monday as likely to happen.

  • Jess

    Monday:
    Beauty & The Beast
    Oxygen

    Tuesday:
    The 100
    Supernatural

    Wednesday:
    The Tomorrow People
    Arrow

    Thursday:
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday:
    Nikita/America’s Next Top Model
    Hart Of Dixie

  • Martine

    I think they would be smart to move BatB away from Thursdays. Its not a good thing to go against Person of Interest. POI is somewhat similar and better show. I think they would improve its ratings substantially if they moved it even to Friday.

  • Martine

    Actually if they don’t compete with where Gimm will end up Friday might be a great night for BaTB. It certainly won’t do less then the .5 its doing now and will continue to do with that kind of competition. Competition is what matters. The whole lead in thing is just silly.

  • DeAndre

    Nikita needs to be put on after Arrow on Wednesday nights and not the deadly Friday nights

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