NBC: Guesses On Low Rated Sitcoms Can’t Wait Much Longer!
Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Do No Harm*||canceled||0.50|
|Guys With Kids*||:oops:||0.81|
|The New Normal*||:cry: :cry:||0.82|
|Whitney*||:| :| :|||0.87|
|Community||:| :| :|||0.88|
|Go On||:| :| :|||0.90|
|30 Rock*||final season complete||0.93|
|Grimm (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26)||1.01|
|Parenthood*||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26)||1.08|
|Hannibal||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.09|
|Parks & Recreation||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.14|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26)||1.19|
|Chicago Fire||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26)||1.36|
|The Office||final season||1.41|
|Revolution||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26)||1.63|
|Up All Night||:oops:||?|
As we approach the end of the season, the cancellation bear is characteristically confident in most of his predictions (in fact, other than a push on The Mentalist the bear is batting 1.000), but there are plenty he’s not confident in.
Low rated NBC sitcoms are a group of likely errors in waiting for the bear. The bear guesses that NBC will renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Recreation, but his individual show guesses are almost certain to produce errors, so he’s going to do what most would do. Kick the can down the road!
The road ends for the bear on May 7. All up or down guesses on that day, or your money back!
Hannibal ratings tumbled to a 1.4 last week. If it can hold there (no guess) it will still get renewed. If it goes lower, the cancellation bear will adjust his prediction accordingly.
A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old” Fall predictions in the table.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.