NBC: Guesses On Low Rated Sitcoms Can't Wait Much Longer!

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


mark-wahlberg-plays-guessing-game-with-a-teddy-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Community :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.08
Hannibal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.19
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.36
The Office final season 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.63
Up All Night :oops: ?

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As we approach the end of the season, the Cancellation Bear is characteristically confident in most of his predictions (in fact, other than a push on The Mentalist the bear is batting 1.000), but there are plenty he's not confident in.

Low rated NBC sitcoms are a group of likely errors in waiting for the bear. The bear guesses that NBC will renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Recreation, but his individual show guesses are almost certain to produce errors, so he's going to do what most would do. Kick the can down the road!

The road ends for the bear on May 7. All up or down guesses on that day, or your money back!

Hannibal ratings tumbled to a 1.4 last week. If it can hold there (no guess) it will still get renewed. If it goes lower, the cancellation bear will adjust his prediction accordingly.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Just Desserts

    The AbNormal sucks!!! :) :) :)

  • David

    Ooh…who will it be!

    Whitney, Go On or Community!

  • Chris

    “A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.”

    Actually there will be a formal announcement at the upfronts in mid-May. If the show is not announced as being renewed, it would, in a way have been announced that the show has indeed been cancelled.

  • RyanCanada

    i hope Whitney and TNN get renewed, but where did up all night? will the other episodes ever get aired? the show is def done, Christina applegate left the show.

  • Potato

    @RyanCanada

    THey aired all the episodes they made. There were originally supposed to be 13, but they cut it to 11 when the plan to go multi-cam happened.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Actually there will be a formal announcement at the upfronts in mid-May. If the show is not announced as being renewed, it would, in a way have been announced that the show has indeed been cancelled.”

    Only if you consider no mention whatsoever of Smash during the NBC upfront as an “announcement”.

    I don’t consider silence an “announcement”.

  • Holly

    @Bill Gorman,

    It depends. If someone asks a question about Smash, there could be an announcement of sorts (or more likely an acknowledgement).

  • Wright

    Grimm, Revolution and Hannibal are the only good shows on this network.They should just go ahead and renew them already.

  • gerry

    @ chris – kind of like it was ‘in a way’ announced when it moved to saturday.

  • Just Desserts

    @David

    All of them. Parks needs Community as a pair-up and Whitney and GOON could be on Wednesday, Tuesday, or Thursday.

  • TVDude

    My predictions for the comedies:
    1600 Penn: Canceled – Low Ratings
    Guys with Kids: Canceled – Low Ratings
    The New Normal: Canceled – Low Ratings Without The Voice and “not good” ratings after it
    Whitney: Renewed – Shouldn’t be, but I’m hearing that NBC wants to bring back a multi-cam and it’s the highest rated one
    Go On: Renewed – It also shouldn’t be, but NBC seems to want it back.
    Community: Renewed – It’s actually cheaper than TNN or Go On, from what I hear and is significantly closer to 100 episodes which lowers NBC’s cost.

    I also agree with Hannibal’s notes above. My guess is that it will be renewed as long as it stays above a 1.2 in that time slot before mid-May. It might even get renewed if it dips below that for a week or two. If it goes below a 1.0, it’s a goner though. NBC really seems to want this one to come back for another 13 episodes though.

  • Stephen

    Funny to me that UAN has remained on the index since January despite not airing a single episode! Are there even plans to air it again? Didn’t it get cut back to just one multi cam episode?

    Crazy that Revolution is the top scripted show. While it has been protected by The Voice, the bar is so low at NBC that even without airing after TV it would have to lose around half of its current ratings to be in cancellation territory so it might have been renewed even if it aired in a different slot.

    As for the sitcoms, Community seems to be on the top of the bubble and I’d be surprised if it didn’t get some kind of renewal. Then Whitney is probably the next likely to get a renewal but right now I’d say it’s firmly 50/50 on the bubble. Go On & TNN to me are more likely cancelled but depending on how many comedies NBC wants on the schedule and pilots in development I guess I wouldn’t be shocked to see some kind of spackle renewal for either. If 1600 Penn or GWK gets renewed that would shock me!

  • samurai99

    Glad to see Hannibal’s less-than-stellar ratings last week didn’t drag it down the index too far.

  • Wiye

    All of NBC’s sitcoms should bite the dust. They’re either not funny and not getting viewers or have never been funny and never really got viewers. And demo viewers don’t count as viewers. If they did, NBC wouldn’t be languishing in 4th place in the big picture of things. I see maybe half-a-dozen new sitcoms NBC could put on that, on paper at least, seem to have premise and/or ratings potential: Michael J. Fox’s show (though I’m dubious about it), Sean Hayes’ “Happiness,” “Joe & Joe & Jane” and “Undateable,” which all should be slotted on Wednesday as the network’s new comedy night – give up on Thursday already, it’s been comatose for the last 5 years. At least on Wednesday NBC stands a better chance of going against ABC’s sitcom quartet, only two of which are really holding their own, than on Thursday opposite CBS comedies. A pair of others, “Brenda Forever” and “Assistants” could go into the Friday 8 pm hour to try something different in that slot. Actually, NBC should scrap most of what it has on now and find about a dozen new shows to fill in all the blanks. The network needs eyeballs and one way to attract them is to create a fall season splash event with more new shows than it’s likely to put on and then sustain the momentum in January with at least a half-dozen more new shows to replace football and The Voice. Out of about 18 new shows, they should be able to find at least 4 or 5, maybe 6, that would click enough to last into season two. If they only put on 5 or 6 new shows in the fall and then 3 or 4 in January, they’ll be lucky to find just 1 or 2 moderate hits out of them, as has often been the case in the last 5 years or so. Sticking with the status quo of past seasons won’t do it for NBC, they need to get aggressive and especially refrain from relying on reality shows.

  • colt13

    I don’t watch Smash, but it is a good enough concept to leave on Saturday’s for another season. Heck, they may order 13 as a Sunday backup after the NFL season ends.

    Whitney will get 13. Guys with Kids has Fallon’s name, so I think they get 13 with a possibility of the back nine.

    Not convinced Parks and Rec comes back, but that is more about Poehler and her film career.

  • Dan

    NBC could easily cancel all other sitcoms besides Parks & Rec but if they dont I believe that Go On, Community, and Whitney all have a shot.

    Go On – Because its NBC’s Save Face comedy, and after airing 7 new comedies it has done the best. I think NBC will give it another show for Thursdays this fall.

    Community – NBC could give it a final 16 episode season to get it to 100 and since Sony produces the series, theres a good chance, PLus with few returning comedies NBC could certainly use it.

    Whitney – Its NBC’s only multi cam comedy and its 2 seasons away from syndication, its stable anywhere on the schedule and has averaged better than NBC’s other comedies so NBC could use it.

    Of these 3, Go On has the best chance but I wouldnt be surprised at any outcome.

  • WoWza

    I have specific intel telling me the New Normal will be back next season. It is a keeper and a couple season show is worth the risk for this one. It’s a bit ground breaking.

  • Dan

    @TV Dude – I agree Hannibal has performed well enough so far to warrant another season so maybe NBC could keep it in that slot next season.

    Drama wise NBC has a lot of options, SVU, Parenthood, Chicago Fire, Revolution, and Grimm will all return one way or another but where they land on the schedule is anyones guess.

  • MJ

    If their pilots turn out even remotely well, I think NBC should cancel all their sitcoms except Parks & Rec (and maybe Community for a shortened final season, since it’s close to syndication and TBBT will destroy anything in its path anyway). They might as well start fresh; I doubt things could get much worse. I don’t think they should give Whitney yet another chance to catch on and I don’t see much potential for them to turn any of their other existing sitcoms into hits. “Go On”. for example, had the benefit of the amazing Voice lead-in but clearly hasn’t been able to grow an audience that will watch it at another time and thus, should be let go. NBC will never get out of its doldrums if it keeps bringing back shows no one wants to watch.

  • Kyle R

    @WoWza

    “Groundbreaking”? That sounds like Ryan Murphey’s warped sense of self importance talking.

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