NBC: Guesses On Low Rated Sitcoms Can't Wait Much Longer!

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


mark-wahlberg-plays-guessing-game-with-a-teddy-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Community :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.08
Hannibal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.19
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.36
The Office final season 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.63
Up All Night :oops: ?

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As we approach the end of the season, the Cancellation Bear is characteristically confident in most of his predictions (in fact, other than a push on The Mentalist the bear is batting 1.000), but there are plenty he's not confident in.

Low rated NBC sitcoms are a group of likely errors in waiting for the bear. The bear guesses that NBC will renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Recreation, but his individual show guesses are almost certain to produce errors, so he's going to do what most would do. Kick the can down the road!

The road ends for the bear on May 7. All up or down guesses on that day, or your money back!

Hannibal ratings tumbled to a 1.4 last week. If it can hold there (no guess) it will still get renewed. If it goes lower, the cancellation bear will adjust his prediction accordingly.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • DKD

    I predict Community and Go On will be renewed.

  • CraveRecords

    Luckily, NBC doesn’t have to worry about 7 hours of programming in the fall (football and, I’m assuming, another fall season on The Voice). Then, they’ve got two and a half weeks of Olympic coverage in February. That’s a lot less holes to fill than the situation appears.

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    Renewal Chances

    1600 Penn – 0% ( ratings were always terrible…it’s gone.)

    Guys With Kids – 25% ( see 1600 Penn…only reason I can see it renewed is to make Jimmy fallon happy and he’s getting the Tonight show so….)

    The New Normal – 30% ( see GWK and switch Jimmy with Ryan Murphy and Tonight Show with that he’s busy with)

    Whitney – 55% ( we said last year this’ll be cancelled, we were wrong…though ratings weren’t hot for the finale…it still has a stronger chance to get renewed. But I wouldnt be surprised if it was finally put out of it’s misery…and this is coming from someone who likes the show.)

    Go On – 70% ( Honestly it just needs a good lead-in not named the Voice and not switched around like a ragdoll. It’ll most likely get a chance next season)

    Community – 85% ( The only reason it’s not 100% cuz i can see Sony not cheapening the deal low enough for NBC to accept.)

    @Stephen

    They didn’t even filmed the episode, and with most of the cast and the showrunner gone, it’s been safe to say that UAN is finished….since February lol.

  • rainbowtwizzler

    I had heard from a source in NeoGAF’s cancellation thread that NBC will be renewing all their comedies and cancelling most of the new dramas. The dramas were all poorly handled except for Hannibal and Chicago Fire so I’m not surprised.

  • Carmen

    @WoWza

    “I have specific intel telling me the New Normal will be back next season. It is a keeper and a couple season show is worth the risk for this one. It’s a bit ground breaking.”

    While I don’t particularly believe your claim of “specific intel” concerning The New Normal coming back (Such claims are a dime a dozen on these blogs),

    I do believe that NBC will do anything they can – and even more – to bring it (TNN) back as your sources claim.

  • Androme

    Whitney, Go On and Community will be renewed, along with Parks & Rec. TNN might have a chance, emphasis on Might. NBC might as well cancel Up All Night.

  • MichaelChickless

    Renew:

    Guys With Kids
    Whitney
    Community
    Grimm
    Parenthood
    Hannibal
    Parks & Recreation
    Law & Order: SVU
    Chicago Fire
    Revolution

  • omabin

    What I would do:

    Monday
    The Voice/ Olympics/ The Voice
    The Voice/ Olympics/ The Voice
    The Sixth Gun

    Tuesday
    The Voice/ Olympics/ The Voice
    Believe
    Revolution [Launched out of a 2 hour voice premiere]

    Wednesday
    Parenthood
    After Hours
    Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    Community
    Parks and Recreation
    New Comedy
    New Comedy
    Law and Order: SVU

    Friday
    Dateline
    Grimm
    Dracula/ Hannibal

    Sunday (Spring)
    The Biggest Looser
    The Biggest Looser
    The Apprentice

  • Fred

    @Wye

    Your 100% correct. NBC will never get out of this rut if they continue to renew low rated shows. Their scripted average is horrid. Especially sitcoms.
    However NBC most probably feels ratings would be worse next season if they unload everything and start from scratch.

    Most likely they will renew many of the dramas: Revolution, Parenthood, Chicago Fire, L&O, Hannibal and Grimm. Obviously not as many sitcoms: P&R for sure, most likely a short final season of Community (for syndication purposes) Go On and Whitney are tossups. But I think NBC will renew them.

  • Joe

    How has Go On done the best out of the comedies? It got a 1.1 despite a pretty lofty lead-in from The Office, something Community and Whitney never had this season, and yet managed equal and occasionally better ratings. If anything, it’s the weakest show of the 3.

    Nevertheless, I expect a 13-episode save face renewal, even though it really doesn’t deserve to. Community likely gets a final season. Not sure about Whitney.

  • CrystalBall

    Ironically Hannibal will be eaten by the bear.

  • David

    I really just want NBC to scrap all their comedies except Parks & Rec and Community (final season!) and just start a fresh. How about the new MJF sitcom? Assistance? Girlfriend in a Coma? All these promising pilots with great talent yet garbage like Go On will get a ‘save face’ renewal, when in actual fact it’s probably the weakest out if all the comedies they’ve premiered recently! (Bar 1600 Penn and Up All Night)!

  • Dan

    @Androme – I would have said NBC would renew The New Normal 2 months ago but the ratings are just too low and the show has pretty much completed its story.

  • Bob

    I only care about Guys with Kids….RENEW IT!!!

  • Raymond L

    I was wondering what the cancel bear has to say about Grimm moving to Tuesday nights, Will that make a difference?

  • Funeral Dinner

    Whitney and Community should be renewed over Go On, they’re not lead in dependent. But if it comes to Go On, TNN and Guys with Kids, Go On will probably come first.

  • Fake Me Out

    Hating TNN because the characters are gay is as bad as loving TNN because the characters are gay … just make your comedies funny and who cares (other than the wingnuts and self loathers) if they’re gay, straight, bi or asexual … I want to be entertained not edumacated … like Cosby was till they got all preachy. I’ve watched TNN holiday episodes only and was left feeling meh … not horrible but it’s not on my must see TV list … given the ratings, even on NBC, IMHO it’s gotta go.

    Feel pretty much the same for GoOn … except when it was propped up by the Voice it’s a ratings dog … if NBC renews it they deserve the ratings bloodbath 2013-2014 will be other than footsball, wannabe singers and the Steroiyldimpics.

    ymmv

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I was wondering what the cancel bear has to say about Grimm moving to Tuesday nights, Will that make a difference?”

    Irrelevant for this season’s renewal, and the bear doesn’t predict a season ahead.

  • Ted Craig

    I believe Hannibal will be cancelled.

    I see little reason for NBC to renew Community.

    This picture would have been better for the Fox Renewal/Cancel Index, since that was all about the Cleveland Show.

  • John

    The bubble comedies are probably all battling for potentially only two spots on the Thursday night block (with Parks and Rec, and the Michael J Fox sitcom getting two of those spots). My guess is Go On and Community are the only ones to survive and one of them is going to be on the fall schedule (I’m betting Go On since it is newer and has a slight chance of growth) the other is going to filler (Community potentially with only 13 episodes again) when a new comedy inevitably tanks.

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