NBC: Guesses On Low Rated Sitcoms Can't Wait Much Longer!

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


mark-wahlberg-plays-guessing-game-with-a-teddy-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Community :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.08
Hannibal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.19
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.36
The Office final season 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.63
Up All Night :oops: ?

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As we approach the end of the season, the Cancellation Bear is characteristically confident in most of his predictions (in fact, other than a push on The Mentalist the bear is batting 1.000), but there are plenty he's not confident in.

Low rated NBC sitcoms are a group of likely errors in waiting for the bear. The bear guesses that NBC will renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Recreation, but his individual show guesses are almost certain to produce errors, so he's going to do what most would do. Kick the can down the road!

The road ends for the bear on May 7. All up or down guesses on that day, or your money back!

Hannibal ratings tumbled to a 1.4 last week. If it can hold there (no guess) it will still get renewed. If it goes lower, the cancellation bear will adjust his prediction accordingly.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • k:Alex

    We all must agree, NBC is very stupid and most of their comedy’s will return.

    ///////
    Monday
    8:00 The Voice/
    The Voice Kids
    10:00[NEW] The Sixt Gun (or other drama)

    .
    ///////
    Tuesday
    8:00 Parks&Recreation
    8:30[NEW] Single-Cam Comedy
    9:00[NEW] MJ Fox – Comedy
    9:30[NEW] Welcome to the family – Comedy
    10:00 Revolution /[NEW] Hatfields & McCoys

    .
    ///////
    Wednesday
    8:00 Voice Result * / Biggest Loser
    9:00 Chigago Fire
    10:00 After Hours

    * Little adventure for The Voice, but Tuesdays had not much competition on comedy and XFactor will lose BIG from The Voice.

    .
    ///////
    Thursday
    8:00 Community (final season with a big final episode) / Guys with kids *
    8:30[NEW] Multi-Cam Comedy
    9:00[NEW] Multi-Cam Comedy (the one who could be the biggest hit)
    9:30[NEW] Multi-Cam Comedy
    10:00 Law&Order:SVU / Hannibal

    * Those ratings weren’t too bad (on NBC), perfect for a dead slot.
    .
    ///////
    Friday
    8:00 Dateline NBC
    9:00 Grimm
    10:00 [NEW] Dracula

    .
    ///////
    Saterday
    8:00 After hours (R)/
    Chigago Fire (R)
    9:00 Rock Center with Brain Williams
    10:00 SNL (R)

    .
    ///////
    Sunday
    7:00 The Apprentice
    9:00[NEW] The Gilded Age / [NEW] Believe*
    10:00 Parenthood**

    Drama Night, we saw by ABC drama is popular on Sunday last year.
    * This new show is perfect with the Apprentice viewers and has nothing similar with the walking dead.

    ** At this slot all the 18-49 demo’s are low, so no competition for Parenthood.
    I’m not changing my mind, Parenthood on Sunday isn’t a mistake, it could perfectly fit with the audience that night.
    .
    .

    We know NBC, so Go On will Go On with a second season, but it’s to replace flop comedy’s.
    And simple as it is, CANCEL all the things those are below 1.# and not in my schedule !

    So what do you think?

  • Oliver

    Weirdly, The Futon Critic suggests Save Me will air the pilot, then jump straight to #106. Presumably 5 or 6 produced episodes will never air, not even as a burn-off.

  • Buddy

    Hannibal comes back with a 1.4. It’s a recognizable brand, and I bet it sold well internationally. My guess is that of the bubble comedies Go On has the best shot at renewal. Perry is a big star and it’s early ratings were very strong. NBC probably has hope that it could bounce back in a restructured comedy block. Also, don’t count out The New Normal. I know that media coverage is far from profit, but its general awareness has been high (it just won a GLAAD award). NBC may try to make it fly another year with some reworking (maybe some cost cutting?).

  • Dan S

    I’m going out on a limb & predicting all comedies are cancelled with the exception of P&R & possibly Community. No more Go On so long, no Whitney & definitely no New Normal. I believe in the fall the only comedies scheduled will be on Thur that of course includes MJ Fox at 9pm replacing The Office. Hannibal is still a toss up without at least 2 more airings to see if it’s hit bottom yet or not.

  • The End

    @k:Alex

    Interesting schedule there, I do agree with your Revolution to Tuesday prediction, if anything because it’s not doing fantastically on Monday anymore, but without the Voice it will sink further, so it needs that support. However if it gets renewed, and it is a costly show, it’l be on one day or another with The Voice, that is a fact lol

  • The End

    @CrystalBall
    @I believe Hannibal will be cancelled.

    If it falls lower yes. If it rises no.

  • joel

    Ted will be renewed.

  • r0ckmypants

    @k:Alex – Last year NBC picked up seven comedies, and only one of them was multi-cam. What makes you think they’ll pick up three this year?

    What is The Gilded Age? And how would it share a timeslot with Believe? NBC has football on Sundays in the fall, so both shows would have to have only 8-10 episode orders for that to work.

    Community would be the only single cam on a night of multi-cams? And just for the record, Guys with Kids’ ratings were not good. Including the premiere, it averaged 1.36. In contrast, The New Normal, which you don’t have on the schedule, averaged 1.55.

    Why move The Voice when it’s an easy win on Tuesday?

  • Twinn

    There is no reason to renew Go On and New Normal and waste dollars trying to get them an audience. But then, nothing the network does makes sense.

  • Twinn

    K-Alex, why would NBC move Grimm away from Fridays again and then put it back?

  • Sixteenvolt420

    Go On, Whitney, and 1600 Penn would be my top 3, in order.

  • TV Addict

    RENEW COMMUNITY FOR TWO MORE SEASONS. IT’S SO SIMPLE!!!!
    #sixseasonsandamovie

  • were123

    I think the chances for renewal are like this:

    Up All Night 0%
    1600 Penn 0%
    Guys With Kids 10%
    Deception 13%
    The New Normal 15%
    Whitney 44%
    Go On 65%
    Hannibal 70%
    Community 85%
    Law & Order: SVU 94% (it’s expesinve, but it will be renewed)
    Grimm (F) 100%
    Parenthood 100%
    Parks & Recreation 100%
    Chicago Fire 100%
    Revolution 100%

  • Jared

    Hannibal is a classic case of great show wrong network. Why NBC thought it would be a hit is beyond me. Clearly this show would have worked better on TNT,A&E or even NBCs sister station USA. I don’t see how NBC would renew this show when its already dropped to a 1.4 3-4 episodes in.

  • Beauty&theFlop

    Go On will definetly be canceled.

    Totally HUMILIATING for Matthew Perry as yet another of his post Friends shows have tanked on their ass. Even the desperation of getting Courteney Cox to appear for an episode did nada for the ratings.

    Think its time to retire Chandler.

  • Tommy Mickens

    The New Normal will be renewed. NBC wants it and its ratings after The Voice were great for an NBC sitcom, and if you look at the entire season, it’s had better ratings than most other sitcoms on NBC. Plus it’s won awards and stuff.

  • NBC

    The New Normal also pulled a few 0.9′s and a 0.7. I highly doubt a show that could pull that on NBC would come back.

  • bjssp

    @MJ:

    I’n thinking what you describe is what they will do.

    I fully expect NBC to try to launch another comedy block out of TV on Tuesdays and perhaps Mondays as well. But if not Monday, where else?

    At this point, if NBC doesn’t wipe the slate clean, the most obvious candidate for renewal is Parks. What goes with it, however, isn’t clear. If I had to guess, it’ll be Go On or Community. But do they stay on Thursdays? I’d guess so.

    All in all, I suspect NBC will try to launch no more than 4 comedies in the fall, with a few more at midseason. One of the fall comedies will no doubt be MJF’s new show, and by itself that will help with promotion, but it’ll be easier to focus on a smaller number of shows at first. Then, at midseason, the network can roll out a few more.

  • Ultima

    @Wowza
    I have specific intel telling me the New Normal will be back next season. It is a keeper and a couple season show is worth the risk for this one. It’s a bit ground breaking.

    The ratings were ground breaking. ;)

  • Niki

    Revolution will be next year’s Smash.

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