NBC: Guesses On Low Rated Sitcoms Can't Wait Much Longer!

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


mark-wahlberg-plays-guessing-game-with-a-teddy-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Community :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.08
Hannibal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.19
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.36
The Office final season 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.63
Up All Night :oops: ?

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As we approach the end of the season, the Cancellation Bear is characteristically confident in most of his predictions (in fact, other than a push on The Mentalist the bear is batting 1.000), but there are plenty he's not confident in.

Low rated NBC sitcoms are a group of likely errors in waiting for the bear. The bear guesses that NBC will renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Recreation, but his individual show guesses are almost certain to produce errors, so he's going to do what most would do. Kick the can down the road!

The road ends for the bear on May 7. All up or down guesses on that day, or your money back!

Hannibal ratings tumbled to a 1.4 last week. If it can hold there (no guess) it will still get renewed. If it goes lower, the cancellation bear will adjust his prediction accordingly.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • k:Alex

    @Twinn
    Because they have no idea what they want and other slots are full.
    Only less comedy could give Grimm a slot.

    @r0ckmypants
    Because all there single-cams are flops. Only ABC have success with it.
    NBC had always success with multi-cams. So why not try it again?

    Community need a burn-off slot, every new show would certainly be dead with competition of The Big Bang.
    And Guys with Kids could grow, New Normal and Whitney will definitely go down next season.

    The Gilded Age is a drama serie, I red about it in a article with all the NBC pilots. But I forgot Football.

    And move The Voice because it’s a easy win in Tuesday. NBC needs success with their comedy’s. And now you have a chance people are watching more NBC in the week. 2 Strong days, 1 day between the 2 strong days and a thing called Thursday. It’s a psychological idea.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Castle beat Revolution this week. Revolution is finally collapsing. It will probably be renewed anyway due to the sad state of NBC, but next season will be its last.

    Nanites that not only absorb all the electricity, they also cure cancer. Right… :-)

  • Carl

    I think everything but Go On, Parks, and Community will be canned (comedies, I mean)

  • StevenD

    1600 penn and up all night are gone

    New normal SHOULD be gone, and hopefully it will

    I think community will get renewed for 1 more season, not sure how many episodes though

    Whitney could get renewed but nothing is compatable with it, and a 1 season renewal is pretty much a 2 season commitment

    Guys with Kids only hope is that if NBC wants a family multi cam with the Sean Hayes comedy , they have none in development, so this could get guys with kids renewed

    Go On will more likely get renewed then canceled, but I wouldn’t be shocked either way. I could see this going in mid season or behind MJF for the fall to the Olympics

    Parks and Rec is 100% going to be renewed, which is great news for me as its my favorite show on tv right now

  • Steve

    I hope New Normal gets renewed!
    Keeping my fingers crossed!

  • Just Desserts

    @Niki

    “Revolution will be next year’s Smash.”

    I second that :-) :-)

  • Rollie Dethloff

    2013-2014

    Sunday
    Football/Celebrity Apprentice and Dateline

    Monday
    8:00 The Voice
    10:00 The Sixth Gun (13-22)

    Tuesday
    8:00 Guys With Kids (22)
    8:30 Sean Hayes Pilot (13-22)
    9:00 The Voice Results
    10:00 Parenthood (22)

    Wednesday
    8:00 Chicago Fire Spin-Off (13-22)
    9:00 Revolution (22)
    10:00 Chicago Fire (22)

    Thursday
    8:00 Community (16)/Undateable (10 after Olympics)
    8:30 The New Normal (22)
    9:00 Parks & Rec (22)
    9:30 Michael J. Fox Pilot (13-22)
    10:00 Rock Center With Brian Williams

    Friday
    8:00 Betty White’s Off Their Rockers (13)/New Comedy (10 after Olympics)
    8:30 Go On (22)
    9:00 Grimm (22)
    10:00 Law & Order: SVU (22)

    Midseason: Hannibal, Dracula, New Comedies

    Feedback appreciated, especially for Fridays

  • Kim

    PRAYING for Whitney & New Normal to be renewed. Only NBC shows I watch.

  • Matthew

    The Voice should just end…. It ruins everything… Revolution Smash and The Celeb Apprentice FTW… Smash and BATB are neck and neck in the save one show poll… Smash has, although small, a lot of dedicated fans and why can’t there be tv on Saturdays? I think it serves as a good filler show even during the week

  • Darkridedan

    This cancelled show keeps reappearing on my tv. It’s a thing I like Smash!

  • HV

    Question: Why is Smash canceled while Up All Night is not? Smash got moved to Saturdays which almost totally means death. Up All Night’s multi-cam episode order keeps shrinking, and I hear the one episode won’t even be filmed. Both shows have a very extremely low chance at coming back, but Smash is very slightly more likely to be back than Up All Night. At least Smash is still on TV.

  • Ultima

    @HV
    Smash is very slightly more likely to be back than Up All Night

    Nonsense. There’s no chance of Smash being renewed.

  • HV

    @Ultima
    There’s no chance of Up All Night getting renewed. My point in all of this was that Up All Night is not listed as canceled while there has been more of a formal notice of cancelation than Smash.

  • andri

    C ‘mon do we really have to wait until may for reallocation of Nbc. Comon’ on over. Cancel the new normal for normality formalism.

  • Ultima

    @HV
    There’s no chance of Up All Night getting renewed.

    Exactly. The math I learned says that zero is not very slightly higher than zero.

    there has been more of a formal notice of cancelation than Smash.

    There has been no official acknowledgement or announcement of cancellation for either show.

    Up All Night should probably say “canceled” or at least have a frozen fall rating and say “certain to be canceled.” Maybe the cancellation bear just shies away from things not actually on TV… or is just forgetful! ;)

  • Nerdbot

    I know it won’t happen, but I’d love to see Guys with Kids renewed.

  • HV

    @Rollie Dethloff
    What surprises me about your schedule is that you have both Guys with Kids and The New Normal renewed, but not Whitney. If Guys with Kids gets renewed, Whitney will be renewed too.
    Also, I doubt that Grimm will go back to Friday after its recent move to Tuesday and also I doubt that Law & Order: SVU will end up on Friday.
    One more note, the Micheal J Fox comedy has been given a 22 episode order.

  • Rollie Dethloff

    @ HV
    1. Good point about SVU
    2. MJF already has 22? Awesome!
    3. I meant to slot Whitney in as filler along with the other midseason stuff. My bad!

  • Jonay

    If president Barack Obama called up a network such as NBC and ask to renew a show such as Guys With Kids would the network have to?????

  • blackrock1969

    1. IF NBC decides to renew “The New Normal” they should give it the “Rules of Engagement” treatment and use it as a midseason replacement.

    2. Give “Community” a 13-episode sendoff in the fall.

    3. Say goodbye to “Whitney” and “Guys with Kids”.

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