NBC: Guesses On Low Rated Sitcoms Can't Wait Much Longer!

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


mark-wahlberg-plays-guessing-game-with-a-teddy-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Community :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.08
Hannibal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.19
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.36
The Office final season 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.63
Up All Night :oops: ?

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As we approach the end of the season, the Cancellation Bear is characteristically confident in most of his predictions (in fact, other than a push on The Mentalist the bear is batting 1.000), but there are plenty he's not confident in.

Low rated NBC sitcoms are a group of likely errors in waiting for the bear. The bear guesses that NBC will renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Recreation, but his individual show guesses are almost certain to produce errors, so he's going to do what most would do. Kick the can down the road!

The road ends for the bear on May 7. All up or down guesses on that day, or your money back!

Hannibal ratings tumbled to a 1.4 last week. If it can hold there (no guess) it will still get renewed. If it goes lower, the cancellation bear will adjust his prediction accordingly.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jack Bauer

    NBC better canceled 1600 Penn, Guys with Kids and for the love of God get rid of Whitney. :-( :-(

  • HV

    Here is my NBC schedule. Thoughts?

    SUNDAY
    7:00 Sunday Night Football/Dateline NBC (Jan. 5)
    9:00 (Sunday Night Football)/The Apprentice (Jan. 5)

    MONDAY
    8:00 The Voice (Sept. 9)/Biggest Loser (Jan. 6)/The Voice (Mar. 31)
    10:00 Grimm (Sept. 9) (13 ep)/The Black List (NEW) (Jan. 6) (10 ep–canceled)/Grimm (Mar. 31) (9 ep)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 The Voice (Sept. 10)/Betty White’s Off Their Rockers (Jan. 7)/The Voice (Apr. 1)
    9:00 Go On (Sept. 10) (24 ep)
    9:30 Undateable (NEW) (Sept. 17) (22 ep)
    10:00 Parenthood (FINAL) (Sept. 10) (22 ep)/Rand Ravich (NEW) (Mar. 25) (10 ep–canceled)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 Revolution (Sept. 11) (24 ep)
    9:00 Chicago Fire (Sept. 11) (24 ep)
    10:00 Chicago Fire spin-off (NEW) (Sept. 18) (22 ep–canceled)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 Community (FINAL) (Sept. 19) (10 ep)/Joe, Joe, and Jane (Jan. 9) (13 ep)
    8:30 MJF (NEW) (Sept. 19) (24 ep)
    9:00 The Gates (NEW) (Sept. 19) (22 ep)
    9:30 Parks & Recreation (FINAL) (Sept. 19) (24 ep)
    10:00 Law & Order: SVU (Sept. 12) (24 ep)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Crossbones (NEW) (Sept. 20) (22 ep)//Fashion Star (Mar. 28)
    9:00 Dracula (NEW) (Sept. 20) (22 ep)//Dateline NBC (Mar. 28)
    10:00 Rock Center with Brian Williams (Sept. 6)

    The following comedies will have a hour-long premire or will air two episodes on premire date:
    Go On

    The following comedies will have a hour-long finale or will air two episodes on finale date:
    Parks and Recreation

    The following dramas will have a two-hour premire or will air two episodes on premire date:
    Revolution, Law & Order: SVU

    The following dramas will have a two-hour finale or will air two episodes on finale date:
    Chicago Fire

  • Ultima

    @HV
    9:00 (Sunday Night Football)/The Apprentice (Jan. 5)

    There is no way that NBC will premiere any Sunday series prior to the second Sunday in March. They won’t counterprogram the Super Bowl or the Oscars and there are three weeks of the Olympics in February; that only leaves two Sundays open on the schedule in January.

  • Chris J

    NBC has so many solid new pilots, that they don’t need to keep their low rate sitcoms that will never grow.

    Whitney: Cancelled – Chris D’Ella already signed on to lead another NBC pilot
    GWK: Cancelled – Zach Cregger already signed on for another NBC pilot as well
    TNN: Cancelled – Ryan Murphy seems to have moved on to making a drama with a similar storyline for cable
    UAN: Cancelled – Everybody left the show

    Only renew Parks (full season), Community (13 ep), and Go On (13 ep)

  • Monday:
    8-10PM: The Voice
    10PM: The Sixth Gun

    Tuesday:
    8PM: The Voice
    9PM: Believe
    10PM: Bloodlines

    Wednesday:
    8PM: Law & Order: SVU
    9PM: Chicago Fire
    10PM: Revolution

    Thursday:
    8PM: Community
    8:30PM: MJF Comedy
    9PM: Go On
    9:30 PM: Parks & Recreation
    10PM: Parenthood

    Friday:
    8PM: Dateline NBC
    9PM: Grimm
    10PM: Hannibal/Dracula

  • MichaelB

    Here is what I believe NBC will do:

    CANCEL

    Do No Harm
    Deception
    Smash

    Animal Practice
    1600 Penn
    Guys With Kids
    Up All Night

    RENEW

    Grimm
    Parenthood
    Hannibal (13 episodes)
    L&O SVU
    Chicago Fire
    Revolution (less than 22 episodes)

    Parks & Rec
    Community (16 episodes)
    Go On (13 episodes)
    Whitney (13 episodes)
    The New Normal (13 episodes)

    PICK UP

    After Hours or Chicago Fire Spin-off
    Believe or Bloodline
    The Sixth Gun
    Untitled Rand Ravich
    Wonderland (off-cycle)

    MJF
    About A Boy
    Assistance
    Brenda Forever
    Untitled Greg Daniels
    Untitled Sean Hayes

  • NBC

    @HV
    Why would NBC renew any show for only 10 episodes? That seems entirely pointless. You’ve posted like the exact same dream schedule hundreds of times by now anyway. I can’t see Go On getting a full season with the ratings it got if Community is only getting ten. Considering the ratings Parks & Recreation has, I especially don’t see it getting pulled like that after one more season.

  • Chris J

    @HV
    @Rollie Dethloff
    @Chris J

    Here are my ideas for their schedule this fall:

    Sunday
    Football

    Monday
    8:00 The Voice
    10:00 The Sixth Gun (13-22)

    The 6th Gun will most likely be the next Revolution. Hopefully it does better, but it seems very high concept which would not be the most ideal candidate for the time slot. I imagine, though, that it’ll be the most expensive of the new dramas hence why it’ll need a high profile time slot.

    Tuesday
    8:00 The Voice Results
    9:00 Sean Hayes Pilot (13-22)
    9:30 John Mulaney Pilot (13-22)
    10:00 Revolution (13-22)

    CBS-style Multi-Cams that are broad and have strong actors such as these two shows would probably do far better out of The Voice, than the unfunny GO/TNN pairing. In order to avert Revolution having a Smash style collapse the first episode of Season 2 can premier either out of a 2 hour Voice or have it’s own 9pm-11pm 2 hour premier out of The Voice.

    Wednesday
    8:00 Parenthood (13-22)
    9:00 Chicago Fire (22)
    10:00 Chicago Fire spin-off (13)

    Broad dramas that are self starters will do better here than the comedies NBC has tried over the years. Every comedy NBC has aired on Wednesday (30 Rock, Up All Night, Whitney, GWK, Animal Practice) has died. Keep strong family friendly broad dramas on Wednesday.

    Thursday
    8:00 Parks & Rec (22)
    8:30 Go On (13)
    9:00 Michael J Fox Pilot (22)
    9:30 About A Boy (13)
    10:00 After Hours (13-22)

    NBC can advertise the 9pm-11pm hour as ALL NEW. They can put their strongest single cam comedies from 9-10pm, and a strong procedural drama at 10pm. Procedurals seem to work better at 10pm than their more high concept shows there, and After Hours is unlike the competition at that hour and is a bit like ER which did well there for years. Also I think Parks would do better at 8pm than most other comedies. It has faired extremely well against Two and a Half men and it has a loyal audience that seems to be different enough from TBBT.

    Friday
    8:00 Dracula (13)
    9:00 Grimm (22)
    10:00 Hannibal (13)

    Midseason:
    NBC needs to have at least 2 multi cams (Holding Patterns/Undateable) on tap just in case one or both of the fall Multi-Cams fail on Tuesday, and 2 single cams (Assistance/Greg Daniels Pilot) on tap to change out in the all new Thursday 9pm hour if they need to after the Olympics.

    Community can come back for a final 16 episodes in the spring at 8:30pm replacing Go On.

    As far as dramas NBC has a lot of good pilots they can work into the schedule after the Olympics, possibly replacing Revolution and the Chicago Fire Spin Off. Law and Order SVU can be subbed in if any of the new dramas fail since Law and Order does well at any time.

    NBC should also consider adding a drama on Sunday after The Biggest Loser in the spring. Last season TBL scored a 3.0 18-49 rating on it’s Sunday premier. That would be an excellent lead in for a drama such as Believe.

  • k:Alex

    @Chris J
    I think it’s the most realistic schedule I’ve seen under this topic.
    Only one thing, switch Go On with Community. Go On isn’t strong at all and it has not the same audience as The Office/Park&Rec/Community.

  • alvar

    NBC’s Thursday night ratings have been shocking this season – I sincerely hope that they will cut comedy time and come up with a fresh lineup for the fall

  • SJ

    Cancel: Go On, The New Normal, Whitney, Guys with Kids, Up All Night, 1600 Penn, Off Their Rockers, Deception.

    Too soon to tell: Hannibal

    Renew everything else. If NBC doesn’t want to completely overhaul their Thursday night line-up next season, they could leave the Community/Parks and Rec duo in the 8pm hour, and premiere the MJF comedy at 9pm, with the 9:30 slot hopefully going to Assistants starring Krysten Ritter.

  • Ted Craig

    @Chris J

    Why would NBC renew Go On for 13 episodes? It’s either canceled or full renewal.

  • Chris J

    @k:Alex

    I agree GO is pretty weak, but sadly NBC will naively try to make it work, when the entire concept is flawed. How can you make a grief counseling group funny? If it was an addicts group it would be far funnier, but the premise is simply not funny it’s sad, and the writers haven’t helped the concept much. Matthew Perry should have never agreed to do it.

    Anyway I think it’s likely GO season 2 premieres in the fall and once NBC realizes it really doesn’t work, it’s replaced by Community’s final season post-Olympics. I would prefer spring for Community so that it can have the time and flexibility (hopefully a few 1 hour specials) to finish the series with a bang.

    @Ted Craig

    Networks renew shows for shortened seasons all the time, particularly NBC. They did so with Community and Parenthood this time around, and I think that would be the wisest thing for them to do if they decide to give Go On a pity renewal.

  • Chris J

    @SJ

    I hope NBC does cancel most of the shows you have listed. I believe most of them are as good as cancelled since the actors have abandoned ship and jumped onto new pilots. Although you have it listed as cancelled, Go On is still likely to be renewed since it’s their #2 comedy this season, and Off Their Rockers could be good spackle for next season since it seems to consistently get 1.5~ demo wherever it’s placed on the schedule.

    Hannibal is probably going to be renewed as well and placed on Fridays.

    I love the concept of the Assistance pilot and I love Krysten Ritter and Zack Creggor (GWK) who will be starring in it. NBC better pick it up!

  • HV

    @Ultima
    NBC’s Sundays confuse me. Ok, thanks. I’ll fix that.
    @NBC
    Actually I have been editing it throughout the year. If you were to look back at old articles and find schedules I’ve posted, you’ll notice that originally I had four hours of comedy in the week, but I took away the hour on Wednesday, changing the entire schedule. Also, I originally had The New Normal renewed, but when I took away the hour of comedy, it went. Most recently, I have swtched Grimm and Dracula on my schedule, due to Grimm moving from Fridays. As you can see, I think and I read comments people make about my schedule.

  • Ted Craig

    @Chris J

    Both the shows you name were in their fourth seasons. This is unlikely for a show in the second season.

  • Ted Craig

    For example, Whitney aired 16 episodes this season for a total of 38. If it were renewed, it could reach 82 by the end of season four, which might be enough for a cable syndication deal. 35 episodes of Go On gets NBC nothing and since it’s a Universal production, renewal is about syndication money, not pity.

  • a p garcia

    Many times I wonder why NBC doesn’t air “HIT” series on its sister networks like those of Sci-Fi, USA Networks. They probaly would dop better than regular NBC programming.

  • Connor Murdock

    obviously COMMUNITY and GO ON will be renewed. NBC has not gone into a new season with fewer than 3 returning comedies. NBC still is without an official comedy night that CBS and ABC both have and FOX is working on. I would say NBC will probably renew Whitney and The New Normal as well (depending on Production costs and negotiations etc) however if they return I would expect them to be on hold for mid-season.

    NBC should really build a comedy block on friday and pair it with parenthood.
    at 8:00 – Go On / 8:30 – Community
    9:00 – Parks and Rec / 9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10 – Parenthood

  • Guys fan

    Guys with kids should come back. Great cast
    Especially with Zach Cregger and Erinn Hayes.
    It deserves a second season. If they had put
    This after the Voice instead of Go On, it would
    Have done great. It’s a comedy that actually is funny
    And isn’t so worried about being edgy or cool. It is just
    Funny.

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