NBC: Guesses On Low Rated Sitcoms Can't Wait Much Longer!

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


mark-wahlberg-plays-guessing-game-with-a-teddy-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Community :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.08
Hannibal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.19
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.36
The Office final season 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.63
Up All Night :oops: ?

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As we approach the end of the season, the Cancellation Bear is characteristically confident in most of his predictions (in fact, other than a push on The Mentalist the bear is batting 1.000), but there are plenty he's not confident in.

Low rated NBC sitcoms are a group of likely errors in waiting for the bear. The bear guesses that NBC will renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Recreation, but his individual show guesses are almost certain to produce errors, so he's going to do what most would do. Kick the can down the road!

The road ends for the bear on May 7. All up or down guesses on that day, or your money back!

Hannibal ratings tumbled to a 1.4 last week. If it can hold there (no guess) it will still get renewed. If it goes lower, the cancellation bear will adjust his prediction accordingly.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jon

    Personally, the only sitcoms I would renew are Parks and Recreation, The New Normal, and Guys with Kids (although it seems unlikely). Go On might get a second look, but lets face it people have lost interest in it. Community is long in the tooth, and has never been a hit. Whitney is just bad television. Up all Night is losing its star players, so it’s out. 1600 Penn…see Whitney above.

  • denroy3

    NBC and low rated go hand in hand.

  • HV

    @Wiye
    Canceling all comedies? Premiring four new comedies on a night of huge comedy competition from ABC as well as competition with American Idol in the spring? Premiring two new comedies Friday @ 8:00? This is all crazy!

  • a p garcia

    Wouldn’t it be somnething if UAN is renewed with everybody gone execpt the baby.

  • Chris J

    @Wiye
    @HV

    I agree with @HV that it’s not likely NBC will completely give up on Thursdays yet. All of their top comedies are on the night. As I’ve said Wednesday hasn’t worked for them, but I wouldn’t be surprised if some comedies air Wednesday 8-9pm after the Olympics.

    Also NBC is not in the position to air NEW comedies on Fridays. They haven’t stabilized their other comedy blocs yet, so it wouldn’t be wise for them to air new comedies on Fridays. They could air Betty White or pair Community with Go On and air them Fridays next season, but that would kill what little momentum Go On may even have left.

    Anyway as @HV said NBC will renew a few sitcoms for next year. Hopefully only 2 or 3. The new comedy pilots they have seem stronger than last seasons (although I still wish Friday Night Dinner with Tony Shalhoub would have made it last season).

  • Matthew Chapman

    @Bill Gorman

    Time to update the table-Revoultion, Grimm, Parenthood, Chicago Fire and Law & Order:SVU have all Been Renewed.

  • Sailingsam

    Give New Normal one more year!

  • NBC’s Diego

    NBC needs an urgent refresh of its thursdays… I hope that ‘Revolution’ will not have the same fate as ‘Smash’ if the NBC launch the series’ second season without the ‘The Voice’ lead-in.

    RENEWED – 26th APRIL, 2013

    REVOLUTION – Renewed for a second season.
    CHICAGO FIRE – Renewed for a second season.
    GRIMM – Renewed for a third season.
    PARENTHOOD – Renewed for a fifth season.
    LAW & ORDER: SVU – Renewed for a fifteenth season.

  • Dragonfoxmem

    Also Hannibal is unofficial renewed as well. Had a news about adding to the cast for the second season.

  • HV

    Can’t wait for them to announce sitcom renewals. Please renew Go On! Please cancel Whitney! Parks and Recreation and Community will be renewed. The New Normal most likely won’t be back, but never say never to shows that NBC likes. The other sitcoms, especially 1600 Penn (sadly) will be canceled.

  • Ana

    I love Go On!!!! even if I cannot see the same day, I will recorded to watch it later at night when my kids are sleep!! I can’t wait for season 2 to start!!!

  • Rave Mystery

    They better give my Whitney a 3rd season! those who don’t like who cares watch something else.

  • Bill

    NBC is really in a tough spot going into next year. I wouldn’t want to be their guy who decides renewals and cancellations there. I don’t envy him at all :(. They have a few shows that will have ended their runs this year, and everything else beyond that..well, it’s kind of a damned if it gets renewed, damned if it doesn’t situation due to that networks terrible numbers. Next year doesn’t bode much better just due to them losing Jay Leno. That right there is gonna be a hard loss no matter how you look at it. NBC’s numbers are so low I’m not even gonna take a guess what might stay or go of the remaining shows who’s fates have get to be decided. I’m completely dumbfounded at this network’s awful luck. Usually, you’ll have at least one break out hit each year if everything goes well. But NBC hasn’t had that super smash hit this year really. Or the past several for that matter. It’s cyclic though so I hope for their sake they get a super smash hit soon! I will definitely check out Michael J. Fox’s show in the fall, that’s the biggest hope they seem to have at the moment. So hopefully that show will take off but with NBC’s luck who frickin knows!?

    I will say the one show I meant to catch this year was Guys With Kids. I didn’t know till recently it’s a multi-cam and will pick up season 1 off iTunes soon! From what I’m reading its very much a TGIF block kinda show so I’m hoping against hope it’ll see renewal. Doesn’t look good though. They’d renew Whitney before this probably. And NBC could really use a few TGIF style multi-cams too! That would probably help a lot short term!

    That’s the thing–they need to decide what demo they’re targeting cause right now it’s all over the place. They need to decide that and clearly communicate it as well as do branding around it. It seems like they’re trying to be “everyone’s network” but they’re throwing whatever at the wall praying it sticks. Once they do that, communicate the demo they want well and get a few respectable hits they’ll be in way better shape. I want to like the network so I hope they can pull out of this complete free fall they’re in.

  • were123

    Ok, I made some changes on my planned schedule for next season:

    Mondays:
    8-10PM: The Voice
    10PM: The Black List

    The Blacklist is a show with potential so The Voice should help launch it.

    Tuesdays:
    8-9PM: The Voice
    9-10PM: Grimm (if it does well after April 30th) or 6th Gun
    10PM: Parenthood

    If Grimm is able to hold a good audience of The Voice I believe NBC will leave it ther to help improve their ratings for a much more competitive night than Fridays. If not, 6th Gun will premiere there. Parenthood stays put.

    Wednesday:
    8:PM: Law & Order SVU
    9:PM: Chicago Fire
    10PM: Revolution

    SVU and CF moves an hour back each. As the comedies don’t work out, I believe SVU might be a good starter, and CF can grow/hold on its audience and provides a good, though not excellent, lead for Revolution to hold. Revolution won’t fare against much competition there (except for Duck Dinasty on A&E) so it would have a chance to survive.

    Thursdays:
    8PM: Believe or Harfield & McCoys
    9PM: Michael J. Fox Comedy
    9:30PM: Parks & Recs
    10PM: Hannibal or Rock Center

    I strongly believe the network needs to start Thursdays with drama. CBS already reigns with comedy, FOX will have X Factor and ABC will either go drama or reality, and I think they will go for reality. Drama will be an effective counter programming, and it should be one that has buzz, so either Believe or Hartfield & McCoys. MJF comedy is getting so much buzz that could inherit The Office timeslot and lead to parks, but it could also be Parks leading to MJF. As for Hannibal, I’m pretty sure it will rise next week, making a case for staying put, but if it doesn’t, NBC has always filler Rock Center.

    Fridays:
    8PM: Community
    8:30PM: Go On
    9PM: Grimm or 2 comedies
    10PM: Dateline

    Both Community and Go On are terribly rated, but NBC can’t cancel all comedies! So move them to Fridays. And if Grimm is to stay on Tuesdays, why not try to premiere other 2 comedies? I’m not sure if that would work, but if Grimm goes away from Friday then they have to relaunch the whole night!

    Sundays:
    Football

    Midseason: 6th Gun (if Grimm airs on Tuesdays), Believe (if Harfield & McCoys airs on Thursdays), Harfield & McCoys (if Believe airs on Thursdays), Chicago Fire spin off and three comedies.

  • Chris J

    @were123

    Grimm and Parenthood are probably the 2 LEAST compatible dramas NBC has. If NBC does 2 dramas on Tuesday, maybe Grimm paired with Revolution? Parenthood is kind of the odd drama out compared to all of the SciFi and Cop style dramas NBC has.

    If NBC recreates Thursdays to be a family night, Parenthood could work there along with MJF and other family comedies?

  • Lionel

    For all thinking TNN will be gone, remember this is the ultra-PC NBC.

  • were123

    @Chris
    Actually it wouldn’t be a bad idea to put Parenthood at Wednesday 10PM and Revolution at Tuesdays 10PM… I think that could work out! Of course, as long as Grimm is on Tuesdays.

  • miss may

    Predictions:
    NBC is likely to renew some of its comedies. I mean, they can’t wipe them all out.

    1600 Penn: Cancelled. Show is dead in the water after the first episode. Unlikely to do well in a second season.
    Guys with Kids: Cancelled.
    The New Normal: NBC will renew for 13 episodes.
    Whitney: Renewed – Much to my displeasure, NBC will renew for a full season.
    Go On: NBC will barely renew for another 13 episodes with an option for 9 back ordered episodes, BUT while I loved the show in the last three seasons, this season hasn’t been watchable since the season premiere of 4.
    Parks and Rec – Renewed for a full season because it would silly to cancel a show that just got a syndication deal and is the heir to The Office throne.

  • miss may

    Predictions (corrected):
    NBC is likely to renew some of its comedies. I mean, they can’t wipe them all out.

    1600 Penn: Cancelled. Show is dead in the water after the first episode. Unlikely to do well in a second season.
    Guys with Kids: Cancelled.
    The New Normal: NBC will renew for 13 episodes.
    Whitney: Renewed – Much to my displeasure, NBC will renew for a full season.
    Go On: NBC will barely renew for another 13 episodes with an option for 9 more episodes. It’s only saving grace was because of Matthew Perry.
    Community: NBC to renew for 13 episodes with options for more. BUT while I loved the show in the last three seasons, this season hasn’t been watchable since the season premiere of 4.
    Parks and Rec – Renewed for a full season because it would silly to cancel a show that just got a syndication deal and is the heir to The Office throne.

  • RenewGoOn

    Wow, are you guys all Nielsen families? Bo wonder TV today is utter garbage and reality TV. Go On is the funniest show around.

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