NBC: Guesses On Low Rated Sitcoms Can't Wait Much Longer!

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Community :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.08
Hannibal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.19
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.36
The Office final season 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 4/26) 1.63
Up All Night :oops: ?

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As we approach the end of the season, the Cancellation Bear is characteristically confident in most of his predictions (in fact, other than a push on The Mentalist the bear is batting 1.000), but there are plenty he's not confident in.

Low rated NBC sitcoms are a group of likely errors in waiting for the bear. The bear guesses that NBC will renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Recreation, but his individual show guesses are almost certain to produce errors, so he's going to do what most would do. Kick the can down the road!

The road ends for the bear on May 7. All up or down guesses on that day, or your money back!

Hannibal ratings tumbled to a 1.4 last week. If it can hold there (no guess) it will still get renewed. If it goes lower, the cancellation bear will adjust his prediction accordingly.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Wiye

    @HV
    @Chris J

    Let’s face it, NBC’s Thursday sitcom heyday has been long dead now. They’ve gotten no ratings traction at all with their comedy quartets in the last 5 years. If anything, they’ve been steadily tanking in that time. You don’t keep repeating history to expect different results, because the network has clearly been proving that it doesn’t work. And now that CBS has really stolen the night for itself leaving NBC even further behind in the dust, sitcoms are not the way to go for the network on Thursday. They have nothing with their current sitcoms that’s working for them right now and they have nothing in their development slate that looks like it will work on Thursday, not even the quartet I shoved into Wednesday on my mock sked. But if a new sitcom quartet is to be established, Wednesday is the only night they really have to play with to give the best of their rookie comedies a shot. And that night isn’t as strong for ABC’s sitcom quartet as you think. Only The Middle and Modern Family do well for the network while each of what follows underperforms, though Suburgatory has done the best of the underperformers. Still, if ABC has a new comedy they’re high on, don’t be surprised if Suburgatory will have had its day, at least on Wednesday. Can NBC’s all-new sitcom quartet put up a good fight against ABC’s half-new comedy lineup in the fall? Depends on the strength, appeal and execution of what NBC would come up with. The four I picked appear to be the only ones that I would use on the night on the wishful thinking basis that they each possess that strength, appeal and execution that could draw viewers on Wednesday, but would still have a much tougher go of it if they were slotted on Thursday. So it comes down to either getting only a 1.8 average on Thursday or a 2.0 or better average on Wednesday. Every additional decimal point counts, so you go with the night that’ll give it to you.

  • LMAN

    Since I think NBC moves their shows around the schedule too much Here is what NBC should do:

    Monday
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – Revolution

    Tuesday
    8:00 – Michael J Fox Comedy
    8:30 – Sean Hayes Comedy
    9:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – Grimm

    Wednesday
    8:00 – After Hours (army medical drama/NEW)
    9:00 – Law and Order: Special Victims Unit
    10:00 – Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    8:00 – Crossbones (pirate/Blackbeard drama/NEW)
    9:00 – Dracula (Jonathan Rhys Meyers drama/NEW)
    10:00 – Hannibal

    Friday
    8:00 – Go On
    8:30 – Community
    9:00 – Parks and Recreation
    9:30 – About A Boy (multi-cam comedy/NEW)
    10:00 – Parenthood

    Saturday
    8:00 – Dateline
    10:00 – Rock Center with Brian Williams

    Sunday
    Fall: Football
    Spring: 7:00 – Dateline / 9:00 – Celebrity Apprentice

    With the Olympics next February there wont really be a need for a Midseason.
    I would say hold Assistance (new comedy) for spring to replace Go On or Community. I would also say order two more “safe” drama series like The Blacklist and Hatfields & McCoys.

    I would also order more of The Biggest Loser, Fashion Star, The New Normal, and Whitney for Summer.

  • Chris J

    @Wiye

    I agree with you to an extent. Maybe NBC will try to do both next year and put their strongest comedies Wednesday 8-9pm (ABC’s weakest hour), and then put some comedies on Thursday 9-10pm. Whichever hour is stronger should be where NBC pursues the next 2 hour bloc.

    NBC does have some advantages on Wednesday. ABC’s comedies appeal to women 25-54, while NBC’s comedies appeal to men 18-34. The polar opposite in demographic means that NBC’s comedies could do well against ABC’s without both networks cannibalizing each other.

  • Lisa

    Im so sad about Smash being cancelled. So many talented actors/actresses on that show. Did the writers just give up??? I love the songs that have come out this tv show. Just get some new blood writing the story line or change up the characters there’s more than one story about Broadway/Off Broadway struggles and the people who produce them. DONT CANCEL!! Loyal from the beginning.

  • blackrock1969

    Guess I’ll give this another shot:

    Mon.
    8:00 The Voice
    10:00 The Blacklist (new)

    Tue.
    8:00 The Voice results
    9:00 Sean Saves the World (new)
    9:30 Untitled John Mulaney (new)
    10:00 Parenthood

    Wed.
    8:00 Untitled Rand Ravich (new)
    9:00 Law and Order: SVU
    10:00 Chicago Fire

    Thu.
    8:00 Parks & Recreation
    8:30 Community/Assistance (new, midseason)
    9:00 Untitled Michael J. Fox (new)
    9:30 Go On
    10:00 Revolution

    Fri.
    8:00 Grimm
    9:00 Bloodline (new)
    10:00 Dateline NBC

    Sun. (midseason)
    7:00 The Biggest Loser
    9:00 Celebrity Apprentice

    Thoughts and suggestions are welcome.

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