Bubble Watch: Too Soon to Downgrade 'Hannibal?'; ABC Needs Procedural Schedule Spackle Like 'Body of Proof'?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 28th, 2013

body of proof april 22

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Lots of drama renewals from NBC and a couple from CW on Friday.  A few quick items and then a piece on the merits of schedule spackle from long-time reader and smart guy Tom Shaw who might be taking over Bubble Watch next season.

Beauty And The Beast renewed!

Though I put Beauty And The Beast back on the bubble last week, and might have upgraded it again this week had it not already been renewed, I did have it as a likely cancellation for a month. For the week or two of that period where The Carrie Diaries hadn’t been moved to predicted cancellation I’m fine with that choice. The other few weeks though, the many of you who were in the “they’ll cancel one of those shows, but not both!” camp had it right!

Hannibal

What's ailing Hannibal goes beyond the NFL Draft.  I was going to wait until next Sunday, May 5 which will be the last Bubble Watch of the season (because before Sunday, May 12 rolls around we should know all the renewals and cancellations) to downgrade Hannibal, but why wait? If it jumps 30% to a 1.3 next week, I'll move it back to the bubble.

Nikita

Some are making something out of CW announcing the renewals of Beauty And The Beast and Hart Of Dixie but not Nikita. At least for now, I’m making nothing of it. Abysmal ratings are nothing new for Nikita, and if the CW has ridden out its lousy ratings this long to drag it along to the necessary episodes for stripped syndication I'll be very surprised if it's not given at least a partial order.  A Nikita cancellation after three seasons would definitely be the biggest surprise of the season for me.

The Neighbors & How To Live With Your Parents

I’ve put How To Live With Your Parents back on the bubble and still like The Neighbors chances better. If I’m wrong about that, I’ll be surprised, but still not nearly as surprised as if the CW doesn’t renew Nikita!

The text below comes from long-time reader Tom Shaw who has thought a lot about renewals, cancellations and scheduling needs. Tom was the person who coined the phrase "schedule spackle" in the comments way back when, so it's appropriate to introduce Tom with a piece on schedule spackle.  Tom thinks about things much more from a scheduling perspective than I do. I haven't spent any time thinking about what Fox will stick on Fridays next season. Tom has!

Spackle Detail: The Silver Lining for Body Of Proof?

By Tom Shaw

As we head into the renewal announcements, the one category the internet as a whole tends to whiff on are the "spackle" candidates. A quick refresher:

Every Fall, networks try new shows. Some of those new shows will fail so badly they need to be yanked off the air.

Something needs to air in their place. Networks have learned the hard way that trying to promote and launch a new show over one to two weeks in that same slot rarely works.
The best option networks have is to fill in those holes with "spackle" - pre-existing shows with established audiences (even if those audiences are smaller than average) that networks can drop into those slots with little promotion. Procedurals and broader comedies work best.

Over the last few years, most networks have learned to have their cake and eat it too by scheduling their spackle options on Friday. Those premieres are usually delayed 2-4 weeks to give the networks time to evaluate the new shows. This allows the networks to have a replacement show ready if a new show fails, while also avoiding eating $20+ Million on a spackle order that sits on the shelf until Summer if the new shows succeed.

So what sort of spackle options does each network have?

ABC

Drama: Only Castle and... Body Of Proof really fit the mold. While Castle has sunk this year, there's been no indication ABC will pull it off the Fall schedule, leaving Body Of Proof as ABC's only option. I now expect a renewal for Body Of Proof.

Comedy: Suburgatory, The Neighbors, and How to Live... could all be fighting for spackle spots on Friday. Unless ABC hates their comedy pilots and expands to two hours on Friday, I think Malibu Country is dead and Last Man Standing depends on pilots.

CBS: Renewals all but finished.

Drama: The Mentalist and probably The Good Wife are Friday bound, as already syndicated shows nearing the end of their runs. The Mentalist in particular is prime procedural spackle, and I am waiting to see Friday numbers before declaring next season its last.

Comedy: CBS has quite a few comedy pilots with prestige names to fill only one slot. A sign of CBS expanding comedy to two hours on Thursday, or will CBS hold Mike & Molly (hitting 88 episodes this year, owned by WB) for spackle in case new shows tank (or both)?

CW: Renewals are all but finished.

Drama: CW has now picked up their spackle options in Heart Of Dixie & Beauty And The Beast. I expect one to be initially scheduled on Friday in Spring.

FOX: Renewals are finished.

Comedy: I expect Raising Hope and probably Mindy Project to start the season out on Fridays @ 8, to cover any failed comedies on Tuesday.

Drama: Unless Fox somehow can move Glee or Bones to Friday -- itself all but requiring Fox to stick with the semi-disastrous Four Comedy Tuesdays)-- the only real options they have are to a) Schedule a new show for Friday and hope it both succeeds there and transfers, and/or b) Move the likely Friday comedy spackle block to cover a failed drama. Neither sounds wise in the short run, so I expect Fox to sit on any failed drama (a la Mob Doctor this season) until The Following and whichever drama gets the Super Bowl premiere can start.

NBC

Drama: Unless Law & Order: SVU starts on Friday (itself unlikely because of comedy spackle), the only spackle option is Grimm, which NBC has only used in emergencies. That said, I expect The Voice's halo to prop up any struggling new dramas until NBC can launch replacements after the Olympics.

Comedy: The biggest mystery left this Spring. NBC has one comedy with ratings arguably worthy of continuing (Parks & Rec) and too much time to fill. I expect NBC to go with two hours on Thursday and one hour of Friday comedy spackle - and NBC gives Go On, New Normal, Whitney, and Community spackle orders with so many unproven Thursday shows.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he's spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
-

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Cult CW Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Hannibal NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Body of Proof ABC On The Bubble
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Beauty and the Beast CW Renewed
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Chicago Fire NBC Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewed
Parenthood NBC Renewed
Revolution NBC Renewed

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  • Raul

    Those who are wondering why ABC haven’t announce the renewals of any shows is because ABC likes to see how the season averages with viewers and 18-49 demo and in the middle of May ABC announce all the renewals and all the cancellations of there shows at the same time unlike other networks.

  • Hardline_Pro

    The only shows I watch that haven’t been renewed yet are Criminal Minds and Hannibal. Overall, a better year than last year.

  • Chrissy

    Hope for a renewal for Body of Proof! :)

  • Marc

    While the network strategy is true, I don’t agree with most of the outcomes.

    Castle is one of ABCs most consistent performers and it’s ratings have been increasing. It’s hardly a “spackle” show.

    As far as the ABC comedies go, the single cams will not fly on Fridays which are dependent on higher viewer totals to bring in an acceptable demo for the night (See: Happy Endings fiasco). Single cams remain a tougher sell to broader audiences. And I’m not sure that ABC needs spackling on Friday to begin with.

    And LMS is dependent on how ABC likes the other comedies? ABC is mostly testing single-cam comedies from what I’ve seen, and I certainly do not see two that could replace the current FRI 8PM hour. Also, I doubt they risk pulling a comedy hour that pretty much won the hour every week in hopes that two new comedies will do better. To dump the FRI lineup means to expect the new shows to pull at least a 1.8-2.0 given that LMS/MC are pulling a 1.5 in the hour. Those would have to be the minimal expectations (because you wouldn’t pull a 1.5 and hope to get a 1.6, because you might get a .9) Given that ABCs Wednesday comedies often have trouble getting to a 1.8-1.9, why does anyone think new Friday comedies will?

    And Glee or Bones to Friday? Really??? I do think Bones is coming to an end, but I don’t think a Friday banishment is in the works. And I also doubt they will leave New Girl as the lone remaining comedy on Tuesday and bring in 3 new ones.

    I also think that as weekly numbers continue to drop, networks will start being more aggressive on Fridays and stop using it as a dumping ground for failed shows. (I think that will soon be Fridays). Honestly, ABC had a pretty successful Friday run last year establishing a comedy block and keeping Shark going.

  • Survivor Fan

    This bubble season is so much more boring than last, where we had so many bubble shows (almost all of which were renewed). Maybe it is just that I followed ratings slightly more closely this time last year.

  • DC

    There where two examples of spackle on NBC this year. Both Whitney and Community were scheduled to premiere late in October on a Friday. Ultimately this never happened as Whitney replaced Animal Practice and Community got held back to Midseason because 30 Rock ended and Up all Night tanked.

  • Tommy Mickens

    Who is this Tom Shaw? He’s been posting in the comments all this time? Under “Tom Shaw” or something else? If it’s something else you should let us know…why would he want to keep his posting name hidden? Especially if he’s the one who came up with “schedule spackle”? (Really? He came up with it? It seems like I’ve been hearing that term for years, and not just here.)

    I’ve seen Robert giving up this article for awhile. He’s been wanting to write less and less for years now and giving this article up would take him completely off writing regular articles. I’m glad he’s choosing a successor though and not just cancelling the article. If he does hand it over. He sounds like the jury’s still out and he may continue for another year or so himself.

    One thing going for Tom is that he’s willing to write longer articles! Yay! Not only does Robert (and Bill) write less and less articles as the years go by, they also write less and less inside those articles! I suppose no matter how much one loves television shows, having to write weekly articles putting your mind to work analyzing what networks will do for each and every show and making the article at least semi-respectable is a hard job and I bet they’re both tiring of it honestly. I would. I like coming in and giving opinions here and there, but to have to do it every week every tv season would really burn me out on wanting to care about all the subtleties of tv renewal science.

    But to Tom’s article – It was OK, and bold. One thing about Robert and Bill, they’re both very, very careful, which keeps their articles respectable enough even if Bill likes to taunt people and even if they are wrong here and there. But this article was like Tom’s trial article, so I don’t mind it being bold, but I hope for his sake that if he’s hired to take over, he starts being more careful. Tom made a lot of predictions in his article, and I’m almost positive that quite a few will be wrong. He didn’t only predict renewals and cancellations (and a week earlier than Bill and Robert so kudos for that, even if he had to because this week was his chance), but he also predicts some scheduling!

    Frankly, I think his ideas are in the right place, but in a way he’s a bit narrow-sighted with it in this article. He zeroed in on a few criteria which surely are important criteria but he let that overpower his predictions and that will be his downfall on those predictions. I will wager that his predictions turn out to have a worse success rate than both Bill and Robert’s final predictions because of this. He put too much emphasis on spackle and Friday scheduling. I think networks do take that into account and he’s definitely onto something, but in his predictions he sort of used that as THE major litmus test for most shows, which I don’t agree with. I think he’ll turn out basically right with some networks, and wrong with others.

    For instance, ABC. He’s predicting Malibu Country cancelled and he’s not sure about Last Man Standing, and then he thinks that all those other comedies will basically only be renewed if they’re moved to Friday and used for future spackle. Yeah, but no. I personally predict at least one if not two or more of those comedies (Suburgatory, HTLW…, The Neighbors) will be renewed and scheduled on a night OTHER than Friday and not used as spackle. I also predict LMS will be renewed and kept on Friday, and if MC is renewed then it’s also kept on Friday, if not then one of those other comedies may take its spot….but MC is a good “wholesome family” fit with LMS and got OK ratings for a Friday, and the only one with possibly the same family feel is HTLW… (I don’t know, it may not be, I haven’t seen it), so my have-to up-or-down prediction would be MC gets renewed to stay with LMS (or else a new “family” comedy gets put with it next year and not one of the existing comedies).

    I also think spackle isn’t nearly as important to the CW, so it’s a bit silly including it. Also, Tom completely leaves out the idea of reruns of other shows in “spackle” spots, which networks use all the time (and are much cheaper than any first-run ep of any show!). My advice to Tom is that when he has an idea, don’t try to make everything force-fit into it and instead admit when that idea doesn’t work for something.

    I will say though, that I very much admire him for predicting The New Normal as a spackle renewal! ;) Good luck Tom, if you get the job!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    And Glee or Bones to Friday? Really???

    In a discussion of the available options, yes, really! It wasn’t spun as a likelihood.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Tommy, he usually posts under just “Tom.” He has an avatar though I’m not sure how to describe it. I haven’t been wanting to write less and less for years. That was a 2012 development, but at this point I would like to step away from all regularly scheduled posting, there’s no uncertainty about that and next season it will either be Renew/Cancel recaps or outsourced Bubble Watch.

    Not exactly a trial of Tom by me, more a trial for Tom to see if it’s something he wants to do. My guess is what you would probably see is Tom being similarly conservative with his designations in the table (which he didn’t create this week) with some bolder exploration in the text.

    edit: this is kind of silly “Also, Tom completely leaves out the idea of reruns of other shows in “spackle” spots, which networks use all the time (and are much cheaper than any first-run ep of any show!).”

    He left out that idea because it’s already accepted by everyone (OMG, he left out unscripted too!!!!) and probably felt reasonable people didn’t need that kind of disclaiming.

  • Douglas from Brazil

    What I’ve seen this season so far,is that broaders viewers don’t like single-cam comedies or serialized shows,broaders viewers don’t wanna think.Vievers tend (nowadays) to like multi-cam comedies(i.e. CBS sitcoms) and cop shows(i.e. NCIS and CSI spinoffs)also,the terrible hiatus,awards shows,football delays and other events are killing shows.To run 22-episodes in 35-36 weeks isn’t working.The idea of Mike Kelley to air Revenge with 13-episodes and no hiatus to serialized shows that’s him previewing a drop in ratings due to bad scheduling and the bad moves that networks still tend to do.Move a struggle show to another day does not help,if the show isn’t work in specific night and timeslot,won’t work in somewhere else.

  • Matt

    Malibu Country did really good for Fridays, plus it surged in its finale. Same with LMS. Both will get renewed and ABC Fridays will most likely stay the same.

    Body of Proof will get renewed. It destroys Golden Boy every single week in viewers, and has REALLY improved since the first epp of this season. (6 million to 9 million) Also, it always paces within a tenth of GB in the demo, when it doesn’t beat it.

    Castle has shown it really is DWTS’s saving grace. Of Course, DWTS will eb renewed, So will Castle. Castle and DWTS are the reasons why ABC wins Monday in viewers (and sometimes in demo.) Castle has also really improved since the first epp. Started out flat (10 million) and has improved to (12 million) Also, let’s not forget how it beat DWTS in the demo these last couple weeks! It has been destroying Revolution and H50, too.

  • Tom Shaw

    1) I actually welcome all (reasonable) arguments. If you can shoot me down, please do; it’s the only way to refine our methods.

    2) Just to get it out of the way, so you can check for bias, the network shows I watched this season:

    30 Rock – Rather enjoyed the season; ratings warranted cancellation.
    Parks & Rec – Not as good as it used to be; ratings (by NBC standards) warrant renewal.
    Community – I now wish the show had ended last season; ratings (and other factors) are a true toss up.
    Hannibal – I like it, but less than the other Fuller shows. I think ratings are dropping to the point where it will be cancelled.
    Person of Interest – I DVR it and only watch the (good) mythology episodes; ratings warranted renewal.

    (I keep telling myself I will catch up on Fringe and Good Wife; I probably won’t.)

    3) Some responses:
    @DW: I have long since assumed Hawaii 5-0 will take over Sunday @10. It’s reached syndication with this year’s order, it’s a 10PM show used to airing against NFL games, and it keeps up the “mirror to CSI: Miami” route CBS has followed so far. As to Friday, CBS has to air something there, and it is likely existing dramas (unless they hate all their pilots). What else will they put there? (It’s possible CSI could move from Wed to Friday – CBS did the same with NY – but it seems like Original Recipe still has more left in the tank than Mentalist / Good Wife do.)

    @omabin: Well, the evidence isn’t that against the other networks. Rules was scheduled for Saturdays as CBS had no room on Fridays; BoP was originally set for Fridays in 2010, and LMS/MC’s start dates were late enough to evaluate The Neighbors, etc. before they started. Furthermore, Touch, Whitney, and Community all WERE originally scheduled for delayed Friday starts this season.

    @Multiple Commenters: Honestly, the biggest question going into the next few weeks, across the dial, is comedy scheduling. In the case of FOX, ABC, AND NBC, I think they are limited to their respective night from Tuesday to Thursday and Friday blocks.

    ABC: I admit that shows like Malibu Country have a track record on Fridays vs. a current Wednesday show. But if ABC runs a single new comedy on Wednesdays, they have to cancel or move two shows. (Even if they somehow don’t, they still have to move or cancel one show.) If ABC only has one hour of comedy “overflow” on Friday, they are more likely to keep shows they know they can air on Wednesday (i.e. this year’s Wednesday shows).

    Basically, you’re arguing that ABC’s prime consideration for Friday shows is which shows run best on Friday. I think the prime consideration is which shows run best on Wednesday. We’ll find out soon.

    4) I honestly don’t know where spackle came from. I do believe one of the guys ran a search through the archives and I was the first person to use the word on the website; it’s entirely possible I picked it up somewhere else though.

    5) It’s tough to tell at that size, but my icon is a pile of rubber balls with question marks on them. Given my love of speculation (and bouncing any idea off the wall), I thought it fit.

  • Dan

    I like How to Live’s chances better than The Neighbors. Not sure how one can think a show which aired 4 eps is in worse shape than The Neighbors which aired a whole season and just kept losing viewers.

    Body of Proof probably will be renewed, why not.

  • Alan

    Revenge should go back to Wednesdays, the Sundays are hurting it.

  • Dan

    I would think Glee could be moved to Fridays at 8 so Fox can keep the 2 hour comedy block on Tues, air Bones with a new drama Mondays and launch a new drama behind The X Factor Thursday.

    I believe Hawaii 5-0 could be moved to Sundays at 10, and if comedy expands on Thurs than Elementary could move to Mon at 10 but if not I expect Thurs to stay the same and a new drama to launch Mon at 10, NCIS Red Tues at 9 between Original and LA, and a new drama can launch behind Criminal Minds Wed at 10 so CSI could move to Fri at 8.

  • TVDude

    I agree with your predictions.

    I would love to say that Hannibal will bounce back this week, but that’s way too hard to predict. If NBC sees reason to renew it they will, but the show is a filler, no doubt about that. If it’s renewed, I doubt it’ll be on the fall schedule, given NBC’s renewals last week. Since it’s not on the fall, even if it’s not mentioned at the up fronts, NBC can always make that decision later. Either way, it’s not a priority show for them. Could NBC use a filler? That is the question I have. Surely they could run something like Dateline much cheaper.

    I also agree with Body of Proof. It’s the show that could. Its ratings say “canceled” its circumstances say “renewed”. ABC always seems to keep one low rated drama around and BoP fits the bill. Who would have though this show would have made it to another season?

  • Hillbilly

    Hannibal – I like it, but less than the other Fuller shows. I think ratings are dropping to the point where it will be cancelled.

    NO! Use Spackle or the super powers you get when writing for TVBTN to save Hannibal. Hannibal will dine on the Cancellation Bear it the show gets cancelled. :razz:

  • Cass

    @Alan
    Revenge should go back to Wednesdays, the Sundays are hurting it.

    I disagree. The Sunday bloc of female-driven programming has been ABC’s agenda since Desperate Housewives became a breakout hit. OUAT is a good lead-in for Revenge. I can’t think of anything currently on their schedule that would be better (barring compatible pilots). Revenge is struggling, yes, but so is once ratings powerhouse OUAT. It’s all about relative ratings. I think Revenge is safer on Sunday nights.

  • SJ

    ABC: If Body of Proof got renewed last year after three of ABC’s new dramas took off and got picked up for second seasons, it will likely get renewed again, now that only Nashville is looking like it’s getting a second season, and with about the same average BoP had last year – and with a lower average than last year’s Once Upon a Time, Revenge and Scandal.

    Malibu Country is, I’m assuming, dead. I don’t think ABC will be expanding the Friday block and I only see one multi-cam show premiering out of Last Man Standing, which is a 100% certain renewal in my book. I wish ABC would keep Suburgatory where it is for one more season until it’s a season away from syndication and premiere a new show post-MF, cancelling The Neighbors and How to Live, but unfortunately I don’t think that’s what they’ll do.

    CBS: I will reiterate what I said on the latest R/C Index post: CBS’ Sundays are, thanks to the overruns, about the same as their Fridays (and it’s not like any of the other networks are doing that much better on the night) so I see no reason for CBS to revamp Sundays in any way, shape or form. A new drama will premiere Fridays at 8pm but it will, of course, only be a placeholder for Undercover Boss. I’m almost entirely sure that Hawaii 5-0 will move to Fridays at 9pm for what will likely be its final season.

    I can see CBS wanting to leave Mike and Molly for mid-season (it only needs 18 episodes to hit the “magic” 88), but I think they’ll premiere one new multi-cam sitcom in the fall on Mondays and then try out a single-cam block on Wednesdays in between the Survivor cycles, although I don’t think it will work for them. Even as a fan of single-cams, I don’t think CBS should deviate from their multi-cam norm.

    NBC: I don’t expect any more dramas to get renewed. Hannibal and Deception are just waiting for their cancellation notice.

    On the comedy side, Up All Night and 1600 Penn are completely dead. The New Normal and Guys with Kids are dark horses considering the behind-the-scenes talent. Go On and Whitney are solid bets for short, spackle-type seasons and Community, due to it being produced by Sony, and Parks and Rec, due to having actual decent ratings, are the closest thing to a shoo-in NBC has in the way of comedies.

    Fox: The Cleveland Show and Touch will be cancelled. I don’t see Bones moving to Fridays. Glee should, but likely won’t, given the two-year renewal. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if Hell’s Kitchen moved to Fridays and Fox somehow managed to stretch out the season to 22 episodes. Other than that, they’re likely looking at either a scheduled repeat on Fridays or a Raising Hope/new family comedy combo there. No way is Kitchen Nightmares getting another season. I think Mindy will stay put and Fox will try a male-centric comedy hour at 8pm. Bones will lead into whatever placeholder Fox has for The Following.

    The CW: Nikita renewed, likely for 13 episodes (80 should be enough for syndication in the case of this ratings failure of epic proportions, many shows have been syndicated with less), The Carrie Diaries cancelled. I’m guessing Beauty and the Beast only got a 13-episode renewal. Its ratings are dismal and it will likely be history by January. It looks like The CW will premiere 3-4 new shows in the fall. Good luck with that…

  • Mari

    (…)While Castle has sunk this year(…)

    Yeah, right. Castle ratings has been averaging better than a lot of “hit” dramas, procedural AND serialized tv shows…

    who is this Tom person and why his opinion matters?

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