ABC: 'Body Of Proof' & 'How To Live With Your Parents' Now "Toss Ups" To Be Renewed Or Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 30th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


tossed bears

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Happy Endings (some F) :oops: 0.50
Red Widow :oops: 0.56
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country* (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Body Of Proof :| :| :| 0.72
Last Man Standing* (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Neighbors* :| :| :| 0.87
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
How To Live With Your Parents :| :| :| 1.16
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.07

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In what is an upgrade for Body Of Proof  and a downgrade for How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest Of Your Life) the Cancellation Bear now predicts both as "toss ups" to be renewed or canceled.

Whatever mojo Body Of Proof had last season that saved it when it averaged just 66% of ABC's scripted show average ratings could again save it this season, particularly since it's now averaging over 70% of this spring's ABC scripted show ratings average (a level for which for most shows would mean cancellation).

Sandwiched by repeats, How To Live With Your Parents ratings dove last week to just a 1.5 rating. It'll be surrounded by new episodes this Wednesday in what is likely a make or break outing. If it doesn't rebound, expect a negative prediction on May 7.

Final up or down (no toss ups!) guesses next Tuesday, May 7!

Although it's not that easy to see, the photo is of teddy bears tossed onto a hockey rink in some sort of promotional event.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • JacobYates

    @Bill
    Will you include Family Tools in your final predictions next week based solely on its premiere ratings?

  • Cj morton

    So would a fall for HTLWYPFTROYL mean good news for Malibu Cointry and the Neighbours, or just one of them? Like out of the 3, will 1 or 2 be renewed??

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “So would a fall for HTLWYPFTROYL mean good news for Malibu Cointry and the Neighbours, or just one of them? Like out of the 3, will 1 or 2 be renewed??”

    While the end result of my predictions may work out that way, I don’t look at it as an either/or situation. However, since all shows are effectively competing against the “average show” (i.e. each other) there is an element of that.

    “Will you include Family Tools in your final predictions next week based solely on its premiere ratings?”

    Probably will ignore it completely. Shows that a network expects to keep around do not premiere in the first week of May.

  • Max Vrany

    I’m still advocating for the “gap theory”. Look at where Last Man Standing and The Neighbors are on the index.

  • ForceChoke

    Bill, given that Once Upon A Time is a shoe-in for renewal, do you think that means an almost certainty for at least 4 seasons?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, given that Once Upon A Time is a shoe-in for renewal, do you think that means an almost certainty for at least 4 seasons?”

    Yes.

  • Carmen

    ABC is in 4th place it is true. But that is somewhat deceiving.

    They (ABC) have a lot of good shows, but they don’t have that big huge blockbuster that artificially raises the whole network up.

    NBC, specifically, is last in scripted show average, but boosted up to 2nd on the (carryover) strength of football, and 4 hours or so of the Voice.

  • Ultima

    @Holly
    4 hours isn’t a lot, especially for a 4th place network.

    Right, but it’s not “very little” either. They’re in fourth, but aren’t doing terrible relative to the other networks. It seems pointlessly risky to cancel every marginal show and premiere 6-7 hours of new programming in the fall.

  • katblanc

    When I saw “Happy Endings (some F)” I thought “no, that’s a whole lot of F”!

  • Max Vrany

    @ForceChoke/Bill, same deal for Revenge. Not Scandal, though. Its short first season means it needs 5 seasons for syndication.

    *Ducks to avoid Scandal fans*

    There’s no reason to suggest Scandal won’t run 5 seasons. It just doesn’t get an “automatic” 4th season from the syndication gods.

  • Holly

    @Ultima,

    How about just “little” without the “very”? ;)

    I’m not advocating they clean house and I can see the argument for the renewals (well, I’m still not fully on board with BoP…), but ABC hasn’t shied away from premiering 6+ hours in the past.

  • Max Vrany

    @Holly, and how did that work out for them? (Hint: “They can’t cancel all their rookie dramas!)

  • David H.

    BOP will be renewed. I know the 18-49 rating is all that really matters. But you can’t ignore the HH rating it’s been getting. It’s been getting 6.0’s lately (better than Grey’s, OUAT, Scandal, etc.). f you’re going to renew a show that gets a 1.5 in the demo, may as well be one that gets a 6 HH rating instead of a 3.

  • Holly

    @Max Vrany,

    Considering the last time they launched 6 new hours, they got Modern Family and The Middle out of the deal and brought them back into the comedy business, I think it worked out pretty well overall.

  • Ultima

    @Holly
    I’m not advocating they clean house and I can see the argument for the renewals (well, I’m still not fully on board with BoP…), but ABC hasn’t shied away from premiering 6+ hours in the past.

    True, but they would need to cancel a lot in order to need six or more hours of new programming (e.g. only four sitcoms, cancel both Body of Proof and Nashville, and not add a second newsmagazine to the Friday lineup). While all of those are plausible options individually, all at the same time doesn’t seem reasonable. ;)

    In any case, if they keep six sitcoms, they still get four hours in the fall from Splash, Wife Swap, Red Widow and Body of Proof. One more cancellation gets them to 4.5 or 5 free hours, which is what I think will happen.

  • Holly

    I’m not saying they should launch 6+ hours, just that 4 hours provides little room for new shows.

    I agree that around 5 hours is more likely: Sunday at 10, Tuesday at 8 and 10, Thursday at 8, and 1-1/2 hours in the comedy blocks. If BoP is renewed, I see it more as midseason backup like it was this year.

  • Jonay

    If president Obama called ABC to renew Body of Proof would they have too?

  • Layton

    ABC is still in much better shape than NBC. Shows like the Middle and Once Upon a Time would be first in scripted shows on NBC, while they are 4th and 5th on NBC. Without football, NBC would be in really bad shape.

  • Ultima

    @Jonay
    If president Obama called ABC to renew Body of Proof would they have too?

    No. Actually, given his track record with that kind of thing, it would probably ensure cancellation! ;)

  • Mya

    Sunday
    8.00 Once Upon A Time/Once:Wonderland
    9.00 S.H.I.E.L.D
    10.00 The Returned

    Monday:
    8.00 Dancing With The Stars/The Bachelor
    10.00 Castle

    Tuesday:
    8.00 DWTS Results
    9.00 Nashville
    10.00 Revenge

    Wednesday:
    8.00 The Middle
    8.30 Back In The Game
    9.00 Modern Family
    9.30 Trophy Wife
    10.00 Westside

    Thursday:
    8.00 Super Fun Night
    8.30 Pulling
    9.00 Grey’s Anatomy
    10.00 Scandal

    Friday:
    8.00 Last Man Standing
    8.30 The Neighbors
    9.00 Shark Tank
    10.00 20/20

    Midseason:Happy Endings, Spy, Murder In Manhattan, Gothica

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