CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 30th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.59
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.92

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The Cancellation Bear has been painted into a headlining corner. The renewals last week of Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie (both predicted by the bear) means that The Carrie Diaries had to go back into the headline, since the only other undecided show, Nikita, was in the headline last week!

The good news is that the end to all this rehashing the obvious is near! Our final up or down guesses arrive next Tuesday, May 7.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • NikitaAddiction

    RENEW NIKITA!!!

  • JacobYates

    I thought Nikita was Certain to be Renewed, not Likely to be Renewed.

  • Olka

    I thought the headline would be something like “why Nikita hasn’t been renewed yet’.
    What a surprise.
    But I don’t think the CW is going to cancel The Carrie Diaries, even if I’d want that.

  • JulieDawn

    So incredibly satisfying to see ‘renewed’ next to BATB. :)

    Assumed TCD would be Certain to be Cancelled now though. And agree with @JacobYates, you’ve moved Nikita back from Certain to only Likely to Renewed – but with no explanation. Was it due to Nikita not being included in the renewals from last week? Curiouser and curiouser…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I thought Nikita was Certain to be Renewed, not Likely to be Renewed.”

    And it is, but the spreadsheet somehow didn’t get the message!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I thought the headline would be something like “why Nikita hasn’t been renewed yet’.”

    Nah, Nikita in the headline last week, no need to pump it again.

  • Anyanka

    Interesting that Vampire Diaries has the highest Renewal/Cancel index of any drama for any network, and the highest overall after Big Band Theory and Modern Family. Do I sense ten seasons and two spinoffs? Maybe the Originals baby will have magic aging until it looks appropriate for a CW lead and gets it’s own show :)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Assumed TCD would be Certain to be Cancelled now though.”

    Ah, maybe I should have gone with that, but it’s the end of the season and the bear’s getting lazy.

  • Wright

    Renew Nikita and cancel TCD. I watch B&tB, but honestly I think it should have been cancelled. I don’t blame TSC fans if they get mad about the renewal. TSC was a way better show than B&tB is.

  • Dan

    Nikita will be renewed likely paired with BATB fridays

    Unfortuantely limited space means The Carrie Diaries will be cancelled and CW is 0-3 on Monday dramas as well as done for good on Teen dramas.

  • Tom

    I wonder what the CW affiliates think of all this. Especially the Tribune Company which owns 13 affiliates in major markets and just emerged from bankruptcy. This season, Arrow was the only new program that got any real traction. Worse, the affiliates are still stuck with low rated returning shows in HOD, B&B and likely Nikita. That’s 30% of next year’s primetime schedule. I don’t doubt that the CBS/WB joint venture is making money by grinding out these shows. However, the joint venture’s evident unwillingness to spend money to upgrade its schedule can’t be lost on the affiliates. You can bet that none of these programs would ever have made it onto the CBS network schedule. So, I’ll be curious to see how the affiliates react if next seasons turns out as poorly as this one did.

  • JacobYates

    I don’t see why the CW has to move BATB to Fridays. If anything, HOD should go there. It will be close to syndication so the ratings can be awful and still get renewed.

  • Brian

    Here’s hoping they pickup The Tomorrow People for next season :)

  • Monday:
    8PM: Supernatural
    9PM: The Hundred

    Tuesday:
    8PM: The Carrie Diaries
    9PM: Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday:
    8PM: Arrow
    9PM: The Tomorrow People

    Thursday:
    8PM: The Vampire Diaries
    9PM: The Originals

    Friday:
    8PM: Nikita
    9PM: Beauty and the Beast

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I wonder what the CW affiliates think of all this. Especially the Tribune Company which owns 13 affiliates in major markets and just emerged from bankruptcy.”

    In my discussions with a smart guy who’s business is supplying data to local network affiliates (all nets, not just the CW), I’ve asked what he thinks CW affiliates will do, and his response was “What can they do?”. His attitude is no matter how low the CW goes, they’ll be able to keep most of their affiliates just because business as an independent is less attractive and that CW affiliation doesn’t cost them that much.

    Take that with a grain of salt. I’ve seen no numbers, and while the guy is smart, he’s only one guy.

  • Mark

    Monday:
    8PM: The Tomorrow People
    9PM: The Hundred

    Tuesday:
    8PM: Hart of Dixie
    9PM: The Selection or Oxygen

    Wednesday:
    8PM: Arrow
    9PM: Supernatural ( DON’T KILL WEDNESDAY IT WORKS!!)

    Thursday:
    8PM: The Vampire Diaries
    9PM: The Originals

    Friday:
    8PM: Beauty and the Beast
    9PM: Nikita

  • reallypeople

    I agree that TCD should be gone. But, if Deadline is right and the CW is bent on renewing TCD for a short season. Then in the fall, they could place ANTM and TCD (half season, 13 ish episodes) together. Since the affiliates wanted more “grown” up programming in the Friday 9 pm spot, hence Nikita’s original placement. Which would then allow a full season of Nikita to be shown in the following spring and summer, and finally give the CW their needed original summer scripted programming (at a low risk and probably low cost, sort of the new LA Complex) leading into their fall shows.

  • Anonymous

    My predictions

    Monday
    Hart of Dixie
    Company Town

    Tues
    Arrow
    Oxygen

    Wednesday
    Supernatural
    Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    Nikita/ mid season oxygen
    Beauty and the Beast

  • ddddddddd

    If BatB gets moved to Fridays, it’ll get the 8 pm slot just because it’ll probably be Nikita’s last season this fall and I don’t think they really care how bad it does at the 9 pm slot.

  • JJA

    I think it’s cute how the young skewed CW network gets a teddy bear in its photo, while the other “grown-up” networks get real bears.

    And, I really hope you’re right about Nikita.

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