CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 30th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.59
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.92

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The Cancellation Bear has been painted into a headlining corner. The renewals last week of Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie (both predicted by the bear) means that The Carrie Diaries had to go back into the headline, since the only other undecided show, Nikita, was in the headline last week!

The good news is that the end to all this rehashing the obvious is near! Our final up or down guesses arrive next Tuesday, May 7.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • ryan

    It’s funny that the success of the WB pilots makes the CW more likely to keep Nikita and not less. You would think the network wants to balance out CBS and WB shows, meaning the success of more WB pilots would make Nikita unnecessary.

    God I hope Blink and Company Town don’t get picked up. They both sound terrible. Like the stupidity of the Carrie Diaries, the buzz-lessness (buzzless-ness? buzzlessness?) of Emily Owens without the Mamie Gummer is Meryl Streep’s daughter comments, and the shoddy, clumsy execution of Cult. I would be perfectly fine with the CW picking up two genre pilots and two non-genre pilots, but the two non-genre pilots that the CW has are just awful. They make Hart of Dixie look fantastic.

  • Rachel

    I hope that doesn’t mean they’ll pick up the Selection. The 100 is already post-apocalyptic. 1 of those is enough.

  • DonnaT

    @Mark
    Posted April 30, 2013 at 9:46 AM

    And all other posters who have similar schedules

    Fist bump! That’s exactly how I would do my “fantasy schedule”

    Risk two new shows on Monday
    Tuesdays- HoD/new show
    Wednesdays – Fixed
    Thursdays – fixed
    Fridays – 8 pm timeslot share ANTM late summer-early fall/Nikita/B&TB @ 9 pm

    Mid-Season 1-3 new shows as replacements for the new/old show potential bombs OR give at least one new show only a 13 episode first season order, like the way Cult was designed; just because Cult rapidly tanked doesn’t mean the short season/cable model is not worth trying again.

    It costs $$$ The CW may not want spend moving renewed shows around (besides either HoD/B&TB’s move to Fridays – I lean more to Nikita/B&TB pairing because they share Romance/Action themes) that would be better spent on promoting new shows.

  • Eren

    Monday:
    08:00 Hart of Dixie (22 episodes)
    09:00 Oxygen (13 episodes)

    Tuesday:
    08:00 The Selection (22 episodes)
    09:00 The Tomorrow People (13 episodes)

    Wednesday:
    08:00 Arrow (22 episodes)
    09:00 Supernatural (22 episodes)

    Thursday:
    08:00 The Vampire Diaries (22 episodes)
    09:00 The Originals (22 episodes)

    Friday:
    08:00 Beauty and the Beast (22 episodes)
    09:00 Nikita (22 episodes)

    Midseason:
    America’s Next Top Model
    Blink (13 episodes)
    The Hundred (13 episodes)

  • Adrian

    wow there’s more drama behind the scenes at the CW than on its boring shows.

    Of course Blink and Company Town are going to test badly, maybe even Reign too. The only one that has a shot is Oxygen and even then, it sounds like a bad rip-off of Roswell. If that bombed back then I don’t see why a rehash would make it now.

    I hope the pick The Selection it’s the only one I’m remotely interested in.

  • Bliss

    @ Eren

    I like your schedule but i think that out of Oxygen and the Selection that Oxygen would get more episodes because the Selection is filmed in Europe which its more expensive. However it might be possible that The Tomorrow People might get more episodes due to the fact that that julie plec (she co-created the vampire diaries and is working with the originals) is producing it and it will already have a built in fan base.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    “‘The Carrie Diaries’ Is Likely To Be Canceled”

    Duh… Ya think?

    No doubt some one still thinks it will be renewed.

    I’m not bothering to read the comments – the usual idiocy, I’m sure.

    Death to BATB!

    Death to Revolution!

  • Kate

    I can’t see them putting a new show at Monday and/or Tuesday at 9pm as those have historically been the death slots on this network. I’m thinking HOD @ 9 on Monday and BATB @ 9 on Tuesday.

  • michelle

    i think that Company Town is the Dark Horse. Blink not so much. I don’t think they will have both Reign and Selection because of costs. One shoots in Ireland I believe and the other in Budapest. Also, there is the issue of balancing the network with both CBS and WB shows. And the Carrie Diaries if it comes back will not get more the 13.

  • Kate

    Wasn’t one of the reasons they cancelled TSC the cost? I wonder if either Reign or Selection is picked up whether or not they’ll continue to shoot them in those locations. Seems spendy.

  • Brandy

    2 things
    1.Theres already 6 slots full with VD,Originals,SPN,Arrow,HoD,BatB.Theres only four fall slots left.i wonder if Top Model will run into fall again.If picked up ,I expect Reign and Selection to be only 13 episodes seasons just cause of expense of thier filming locations,
    2.According to article, CW may pick up five more pilots in addition to The Originals.That would leave three in fall along with Nikita( if renewed) and two Midseason which is close to what they’ve been doing the last couple season ,only with one more new show.But if Top Model runs into Oct-Nov again, then they’ll need something to put in place for a few weeks after it finishes til Midseason hiatus.The bone of contention for Nikita’s how many pilots to pick up.Right now Arrow,SPN are WB,Nikita’s WB and BatB is CBS.VD,HoD,The Originals are joint WB/CBS owned /produced.CD is WB(EW & Deadline both say it could come back(.CBS will want more than BATB and one pilot on the schedule next season.So what will CW do?Pick up two WB pilots and two CBS pilots to keep both sides happy?Tvline says Nikita’s a safe bet for a shortened fourth and final season.

  • Brandy

    That’s assuming CD is cancelled and Nikita renewed they’ll have three spots in fall ,two or three in Midseason to fill.CD could return as schedule spackle or Midseason but if renewed only for 13vepisodes.

  • Mary

    Cancel TCD and renew Nikitta

  • Tom

    @ Kate

    The short answer to your question is that the CW will renew a more expensive show like Arrow if the financial returns justify spending the extra money. The same would apply to Reign and Selection.

    There’s a cost/benefit analysis that the CBS/WB joint venture performs in deciding whether to renew or cancel a show. After last season, the TSC’s producer stated that the cost of special effects had a lot to due with his show’s cancellation. Although Hart of Dixie ended the season with similar ratings, it was renewed because it was cheaper to produce.

    I’ve been saying all along that the CBS/WB joint venture won’t hesitate to keep producing programs for the CW that are profitable regardless of their ratings. The exceptions are shows like EOMD, Carries Diaries (I assume) and Cult that never get off the ground. Shooting Reign and Selection overseas provides significant tax benefits. So do the potential fees for licensing these shows to Netflix and Hulu. However, there is a tipping point past which various factors such low ratings will outweigh the added expense of producing these shows. This is what happened to TSC. So, if Reign or Selection don’t start out well, they’re likely to be cancelled more quickly than a program that’s less costly to produce.

  • reallypeople

    I read the “other” website’s “scoop”. I don’t know their track record or sources… but all behind the scenes people package shows together to try to gain leverage. It’s fairly standard and is used to help increase the episode order… there’s no need to do that unless they are trying for a full season.

    Also, the “scoop” contains a contradiction… it first says that their renewal is at risk (highly doubtful IMO) and then says that the episode order is up in the air between 6 to 18 episodes.

  • Tom

    I don’t have a copy of the CBS/WB joint venture agreement so I’d like to know why the two parties are supposedly trying to maintain an equal number of productions for distribution through the CW network. A joint venture typically provides that the respective parties will divide revenues and expenses. It’s not unusual for one joint venture party to do most of the funding while the other(s) concentrate on production. It doesn’t matter who does what so long as everyone meets their obligations and receives their fair share of profits. Also, considering the significant number of flops the joint venture has produced, I don’t see how the participants will ever be able to come up with an equal division of productions.

  • Nick

    What the CW should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: America’s Next Top Model/The Selection (new) (15 episodes)
    9: Hart of Dixie (24 episodes)

    Tue-
    8: The Hundred (new) (13 episodes)
    9: Supernatural (22 episodes)

    Wed-
    8: Arrow (24 episodes)
    9: The Tomorrow People (new) (13 episodes)

    Thu-
    8: The Vampire Diaries (22 episodes)
    9: The Originals (new) (22 episodes)

    Fri-
    8: Beauty & the Beast (13 episodes)
    9: Nikita (final season) (22 episodes)

    Midseason – second cycle of ANTM

    Feedback would be greatly appreciated.

  • ToXiX

    CW 2013/2014 schedule

    Monday

    8 – The Simpsons R
    830 – The Simpsons R
    9 – The Simpsons R
    930 – The Simpsons R

    Tuesday

    8 The Big Bang Theory R
    830 The Big Bang Theory R
    9 Two and a half Men R
    930 Two and a half Men R

    Wednesday

    8 Arrow
    9 Supernatural

    Thursday

    8 Vampire Diaries
    9 The Originals

    Friday

    8 Top Model
    9 Nikita

    Showing syndicated repeats on Mon & Tues would do better than ANYTHING ELSE CW COULD TRY NEXT SEASON.

  • reallypeople

    Not to put inside info vs. inside info… but via TVLine this sounds much more plausible as to why Nikita wasn’t announced… “I don’t think so. I’m told the reason Nikita wasn’t included in last week’s CW pickups was because series creator Craig Silverstein was in Virginia shooting his AMC pilot Turn and therefore unable to pitch his Season 4 plan to the network. He’s now back in L.A. and due to meet with CW brass in the coming days. Bottom line: The show is still a safe bet for a (shortened) fourth season.”

  • 0mega

    It really is crazy how amazingly good Nikita is, and how little attention it gets from the media and viewers for that quality. Arrow is pretty decent but still not really in the same league

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