CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 30th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.59
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.92

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The Cancellation Bear has been painted into a headlining corner. The renewals last week of Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie (both predicted by the bear) means that The Carrie Diaries had to go back into the headline, since the only other undecided show, Nikita, was in the headline last week!

The good news is that the end to all this rehashing the obvious is near! Our final up or down guesses arrive next Tuesday, May 7.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Restless

    @EVESIX
    Seriously, lots of people think Beauty and the Beast will go to Fridays. It’s what happened to Nikita. They’re going with the idea that history repeats itself.

    Speaking of, reedmac you did miss Nikita. You don’t think it’ll be renewed?

    Personally don’t think they’ll put two new shows on Monday, much less Tuesday. If they don’t split Supernatural and Arrow, they’ll have Beauty and the Beast on Monday and Hart of Dixie on Tuesdays, with Nikita (if renewed) paired up with America’s Next Top Model again (though I hope Who’s Line Is It Anyway takes off again and it appears somewhere instead, maybe midseason replacement).

    If they do split Supernatural and Arrow, I think they should move Hart of Dixie to Fridays. Just because it’ll be in it’s third season. Then when it’s in it’s final season, they can move Beauty and the Beast in it’s third season to pair with it. A nice simple rotation.
    I don’t think either Nikita, Hart of Dixie nor Beauty and the Beast has much chance to go past four seasons so might as well let Friday go back to the night where shows go to die/wait for syndication.

  • Brandy

    Tvguide has Nikita,Carrie Diaries listed as not looking good for renwal.

  • Tiago

    Arrow will be paired with The Tomorrow People, and they will probably promote both of them together, since the male leads are cousins.

  • Martine

    Praise the Lord. Beauty and the Beast is here for another season. i sort of knew it would be, of course. TCD will have to go. It really isn’t going anywhere anyhow. Its just not a good combination. You can’t wow people with fashion in a show about high school really. I adore 80’s style, and the only person on TCD that I like to see what she wears is that “mean girl”, Donna. Actually she was the most likeable person on that show, and she was like the bad guy. Thats a problem.

  • Martine

    @Tom, you need to relax. You aren’t being insulted. Your attempt at scheduling is. I am pretty sure that BatB is going to stay exactly where it is. Honestly, even with the drops its still their fourth most popular show at the moment, and absolutely nothing they have coming up looks like it will do well. Actually, sad to say the Cult was one of their more interesting ideas. Its just so badly written that it can’t be watched.

  • ryan

    @Brandy

    I can quote any number of sites saying Nikita is a lock for renewal. TvWise has a great article about all the broadcast network shows’ renewal odds. According to them, Carrie Diaries will be cancelled while for Nikita, “a fourth season of 13 episodes is a shoo in, they have also indicated that this would be the final season for Nikita. The network could still go for a 22 episode season if they don’t pick up as many drama pilots as they currently expect to and it should be noted that both Warner Bros. and EP Craig Silverstein are pushing for 22 episodes.”

  • Martine

    @ Tiago I am sorry; But how does it matter that the two leads are cousins? Not trying to be mean, but am I missing something? Is that a typical thing to do? It doesn’t seem like it matters in the slightest.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Brandy: “Tvguide has Nikita,Carrie Diaries listed as not looking good for renwal.”

    TVguide has no clue and neither does anyone else. Wait for the upfronts. TCD is definitely dead. WBTV is part owner of the CW – if they want 22 episodes for Nikita, they’ll get it.

  • Brandy

    @Martine, no BaTB will not stay where it is , The Originals(Vampire Diaries spinoff) will take its slot while BatB moves.
    @Ryan, I just post the latest renwal/cancel info I have as I see it and as its updated for people that are interested.Earlier this season, TvGuide had Nikita as looking good,HoD as not looking good and that if Carrie Diaries could be saved if it did well on Hulu and Netflix.

  • Tom

    @ Martine

    “@Tom, you need to relax. You aren’t being insulted. Your attempt at scheduling is…”

    That was Reedmac’s schedule. I haven’t submitted one. My objection relates specifically to Evesix’s parting shot; i.e. “Unless you’re some dumb BATB hater, which wouldn’t surprise me at all.” I’ll embrace the characterization of being a B&B “hater” To me, that’s now synonymous with someone who has good taste in programming. The “dumb” reference is clearly an insult and totally misplaced. It’s clear from the comments in this thread that many of the Beastlings still haven’t got a grip on what’s going on at the CW.

  • Brandy

    @RSH wait til upronts,.Ill be here to rub your face in it if/when Nikita gets a short season.WB has to compete with CBS for schedule space and CBS will push and fight to get as many of thier pilots picked up seeing as they have only BATB returning.Plus, with Craig having a new show/pilot, that leaves less time for work on Nikita.OTH, GG both got short final seasons.Also, I was only updating people interested since tvguide changed Nikita’s status from Ealier in the season looking good to reccently not looking good.They also said Carrie Diaries could return if it did well in Hulu and Netflix, Deadline said a month ago CD could be renewed due to strong online sales and EW reccently said its kinda sortal Likley to continue.Hope you don’t make a fool out of yourself again with thses like BaTB, saying it would drop to 0.4 and be cancelled.

  • Melanie

    @Tiago I’d rather see Tomorrow People be a self starter, like Arrow, on Mon or Tue and spread out the Amell factor to another night.

  • Melanie

    @Brandy I think the CW might go with Carrie Diaries as a digital only on-line series.
    CBS has BATB plus the joint ventures HOD, TVD & the Originals. WB has Arrow & SPN and maybe Nikita along with the joint ventures, right? So if CBS gets one more pilot they’re pretty even. And CBS seems to like the joint ventures (in other words, they like to share production costs with another studio)so if say the 100 is picked up, it might become a ‘joint venture’ too.

  • Tom

    @ Brandy

    I wish I could commission a trophy for the largest amount of wild speculation in one post. Yours would be the clear winner. I’ve asked this question before without getting an answer, so here is is again: What’s your source for the belief that the WB and CBS need to strive for equal numbers of productions? I ask because joint venture agreements typically provide only for a division of expenses and earnings.

    Secondly, what makes you think Craig can’t work on two productions simultaneously? That’s what production assistants are for.

    Thirdly, Hack wasn’t wrong. He was just too logical. B&B has miserable ratings and no prospects for growth. However, this season was a disaster for the CW. That left the network with too many holes to fill in its schedule. So, as Mr. Gorman pointed out, it was either renew one of the ratings turkeys or ante up a lot of money to produce more than the usual bunch of new shows. The CBS/WB joint venture runs on limited funding so the eventual outcome was that the CW basically didn’t renew B&B so much as get stuck with it. I doubt if Pedowitz is doing handsprings over this, but then that’s his problem. At least we’ll all have the androgynous Nina/Tess around for laughs.

    Anyway, thanks for bring all this up and, needless to say, I’m rooting for Hack.

  • Dave

    Lmao The Carrie Diaries is so dead! You need to get a clue BRANDY!

  • Adrian

    Ok I decided to check how many CBS, CW and joint venture productions the CW had each year (I only checked 2009-present scripted shows) and it has NEVER been 50-50. Though CBS has only half the productions WB has, most have been a joint venture

    CBS-only productions: 90210, Melrose Place, BATB (3)

    WB-only productions: Supernatural, One Tree Hill, Smallville, Nikita, Arrow, Carrie Diaries (6)

    Joint venture (CBS-CW): Gossip Girl, Vampire Diaries, Life Unexpected, Hellcats, Hart of Dixie, The Secret Circle, Ringer, Cult, Emily Owens (9)

    So there’s nothing to indicate they are “competing for time in the schedule” In fact I agree with Melanie, they seem to like to share the costs since so many have been joint venture productions.

  • Brandy

    @tm because he missed an earlier chance to pitch season four cause he was working on Turn.Cause Kevin Wlliamson had to leave VD to focus on SC then The Following and Alan Ball left True Bolld to work on Banshee.
    @Dave SOS Nikita.If it was so certain to be renewed for syndication, it wouldve been renewed by now.Instead WB and CW are debating how many episodes to give it and how many pilots to pick up to even have room for it.If its renewed, it’ll be a shortened final season and that low rated for its entire run show will finally be the off air!LMAO.Its always been a bubble show too. Lol.You know that a big part of why HoD was renewed was cause of strong online viewing ,same with LA Complex in addition to both shows being cheap to produce.All month ,sites have been saying Nikita will only get a short final season, which is the most it deserves,

  • Brandy

    Also, WB be so worried about how CBS pilots test/how many pilots they pick up if Nikita was totally safe.Nor would CBS be wanting more than BATB on the schedule.

  • Dave

    @Brandy

    What is your problem with Nikita huh?

    Don’t you have anything better to do?!

    We know that Nikita will be ending next season. Whether its 13 or 22 episodes, the show will be renewed.

    It should have made it past Season 1 but the show has managed to survive this long.

    Why do you consistently hate on a TV show that has nothing to do with your daily life?

    Do you know how unhealthy that is?

    I’d seriously consider psychiatric evaluation because your hate is kn a whole new other level that even I can’t comprehend.

  • Monica

    lol Brandy is such a troll and Nikita hater. I’m not sure what’s worse, her grammar or her ridiculous statements.

    The fact that TV Guide had HoD as not looking good just shows they don’t really know what they’re talking about. It was pretty obvious to everyone here that it would get renewed. If they couldn’t call that correctly, I wouldn’t trust them to be right about Nikita either.

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