CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 30th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.59
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.92

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The Cancellation Bear has been painted into a headlining corner. The renewals last week of Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie (both predicted by the bear) means that The Carrie Diaries had to go back into the headline, since the only other undecided show, Nikita, was in the headline last week!

The good news is that the end to all this rehashing the obvious is near! Our final up or down guesses arrive next Tuesday, May 7.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • reallypeople

    I agree that Reign is a controlled risk, being a period piece. But, honestly, I think CW has to try something other than sci-fi. So with the lack of options…

    What the CW should do is if Bad Teacher and Super Fun Night are passed on is pick both up and pair both with HoD. But, sadly, the CW seems to be playing it safe so it won’t happen.

  • Josh

    I hope The Carrie Diaries gets renewed even though it is highly unlikely. I do hope Nikita gets renewed, as it is a underrated show. But from about mid this season it has been going a bit crazy with the plot. Plus since they have got rid of all the extras and killed a few characters off that have been in it from the start you can see that they were doing that to make the chances of a fourth season more likely ( less people to pay). The last main character they killed off i was quite shocked and annoyed over it. How they ended season 2 would have been an amazing send off as everything was wrapped up nicely. Lets see how the last could of eps go and if they get a renewal.

  • Les

    I love how everyone keeps putting my two favorite shows on the crappiest night for television on the same night as one another. Nikita and Beauty & The Beast on Fridays. Thanks guys! Frankly, I don’t think any new shows need to be on Fridays, except reruns.

    Monday
    Supernatural
    Beauty & The Beast

    Tuesday
    Hart Of Dixie
    (A comedy, perhaps)

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Nikita

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Fridays
    Doesn’t America’s Next Top Model air on Fridays now?
    A rerun of a hit show

    Just a thought. A network TV schedule should make everyone happy, frankly, and I don’t think it should be that difficult.

  • Logic Rules.

    Heart of Dixie is their weakest show as far as ratings. I suppose if anything needs to go to Friday it will Be Heart of Dixie, and of course Nikita will be on Friday if it is renewed. The two shows that have the lowest ratings are those two.

  • Logic Rules.

    @ Tom, I am sorry but BatB had better ratings that HoD. So if there was anything the CWwas stuck with it was HoD. Also BatB is really developing nicely and the story has grown, and shows so much promise of interesting developments, that I can’t imagine that it won’t grow in ratings. Its become quite a wonderful show. Not to mention the ratings are fairly stable. I don’t think it was ever in doubt for renewal. HoD was. As for Nikita it has worse ratings then BatB and HoD. So it is a bit unfair, isn’t it?

  • Betty

    @ Tom; I am sorry, but by what madness are you now the voice of what is considered good television? Also; how do you justify the idea that Beauty and the Beast has bad ratings by CW standards? It has never once had worse ratings then : The Cult, 90210, Emily Owens, Heart of Dixie, Nikita, Gossip Girl or The Carrie Diaries. So in fact only THREE shows on CW get better ratings. Obviously the CW is sort of low end, but thats a whole different subject. If there is indeed now a request for better behavior, then please don’t tell us in detail the show is inferior. Its not. I doubt you could properly critique it fairly given your temperament. I assure you the show is well written, well acted, well paced, and well balanced between the serial story, and the overarching one. Your post is unfair and mean spirited, but also illogical. I don’t know why you think what you do, but facts don’t bear you out.

  • Kem

    The Carrie Diaries has to be renewed, seriously there are no other shows that speaks to teenagers as this one does!

  • Tom

    @ Logic Rules

    What’s logical about you? B&B’s ratings aren’t stable. They’ve recently dropped to a consistent 0.5 and viewership has also dropped substantially. Although the ratings are falling, you’re still insisting that B&B is a great show. Why not just say you’re a fan and sign off? Your insistence that B&B will get better ratings is also groundless. Claiming that it’s improving is simply repeating a worn out Beastling cliche. And, BTW, virtually no one on this site ever doubted that HOD would be renewed.

    @ Betty

    All you’re really saying is that you’re a B&B fan who doesn’t like me criticizing the show. That’s not a breach of etiquette. It’s an expression of my opinion. The idea is to do that without personally insulting anyone. For what it’s worth, I have no intention of trying to “justify the idea that Beauty and the Beast has bad ratings by CW standards….” The fact hat the show is now consistently rated at 0.5 says it all. Just because other CW shows bombed worse doesn’t make B&B a good show. Got that? Furthermore, throwing Gossip Girl and 90210 into this discussion merely shows how unaware you are of what’s relevant. Both are shows that had reasonably successful runs and eventually just ran out of steam. In short, Betty, you haven’t said anything other than what a typical Beastling would be expected to say.

  • Spence

    Monday
    8.00: Reign
    9.00: Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    8.00: The 100
    9.00: Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8.00: Arrow
    9.00: The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    8.00: The Vampire Diaries
    9.00: The Originals

    Friday
    8.00: Nikita
    9.00: Beauty and the Beast

    Mid-season:
    Oxygen

  • Brad

    @Tom

    You’re my hero. Thank you for bringing some logic to this discussion.

  • Liz

    Monday
    The 100
    Supernatural

    Tuesday
    Reign
    Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday (Ammell bros. night)
    Arrow
    The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    ANTM/mid-season BatB
    BatB/mid-season Nikita (final 23 eps)

    Midseason:
    Oxygen, Oh Sit! and 2 CBS comedies of whatever they don’t pick up between (Bad Teacher, Super Clyde, ROE, or Who’s Line?)

  • Liz

    meant final 13 eps for Nikita

  • Kaio

    HoD is not a good lead in.

    Monday:
    Oxygen
    Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday:
    The Tomorrow People
    The Selection

    Wednesday:
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday:
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday:
    Beauty and The Beast
    ANTM/Nikita

    Mid: The Hundred

    What did you think, @Tom?

  • Tom

    @ Kaio

    I think your schedule is pretty good. SPN gained 0.2 in the demo after being scheduled after Arrow, so Wednesdays won’t change. Scheduling the Originals after TVD might finally give the CW a show that works in the 9 PM Thursday slot. TVD fans should at least initially stick around to watch it and Phoebe Tonkin is a favorite of TVD (and Secret Circle) fans.

    If the CW schedules B&B on Friday it’s because they’ve given up on it and are just using it to raise cash on Netflix, etc. and to fill a spot on the schedule. However, they’re so short of programming that they might initially move it to Monday at 8 PM with HOD staying at 8 PM on Tuesday. As you’ve stated, HOD is low rated for a lead-in, but putting it after a new show would probably cause its ratings to slide even further. If B&B couldn’t get decent ratings following TVD, it could only do worse at 9 PM on any other weekday. In other words, the CW is stuck with HOD until it reaches syndication numbers. It’s too early to tell what happens to B&B. Personally, I’m hoping enough new shows catch on that the CW can eventually bump it to Fridays assuming it doesn’t start the season there.

    I don’t think the CW will start out with more than three new shows. As with this season, I expect the CW to commission five new shows and to hold two in reserve. That’s because CW shows have such a high rate of failure. This season, the CW put a lot of money into Arrow and considerably less into the other new shows. I expect to see that pattern repeated which means that we’re inevitably going to see some more low budget flops. So, look for new shows to be scheduled at 9 PM on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday with at least two new shows scheduled for mid-season.

    Finally, I see Nikita staying at 8 PM on Fridays for the entire season. The CW is keeping the show on solely for syndication revenue and, in many respects, the CW has lately been more about raising money than garnering ratings. With one less new show, that leaves one open slot to be filled. That would likely be a low budget reality or game show.

    I prefer your schedule to mine when it comes to the number of new shows and putting B&B on Fridays. So, I hope you’re right about that. Anyway, we’ll soon see what happens.

  • Kaio

    @Tom

    Thanks Tom. I always like your comments.

    Hart of Dixie was in that slot in your first season, and it got 0.5 – 0.9 (its lead in was Gossip Girl). So I thought maybe HoD can get 0.4 – 0.6 in that slot.

    Nikita probably will be in your last season, doesn’t matter how it will do. 9 p.m. is more difficult than 8 p.m. So I think 8 p.m. better for B&TB.

    Sorry for my english.

  • ryan

    @Tom and Kaio

    I agree the CW will try 3 new shows in the Fall (including the Originals) and two new shows in the Spring. I think they will expect one of the new shows besides the Originals to be an Arrow-level of success. That show sounds like it will be the Tomorrow People, and it will go on Monday or Tuesday at 8 PM.

    If HoD doesn’t move to Friday this season, it will move to Friday next season. Nikita will be gone, leaving a spot open for a low-rated, syndication-bound show. I can definitely see Nikita/BATB for Friday this season and HoD/BATB for Friday next season (assuming BATB doesn’t completely crash and burn and is still profitable for Netflix deals etc). ANTM is always tricky to figure out though, and might be on Friday this season instead of BATB, with a failed pilot like Cult taking its place eventually.

    From what I’ve seen, Phoebe Tonkin’s character on TVD is actually really unpopular. A lot of people are unhappy about the pregnancy story, but I’m sure most will give the Originals the benefit of the doubt, at least at first. Everyone seems to love at least one of Klaus, Rebekah, or Elijah, so having all three on the show really helps.

  • PeterMazz

    I think this should be (and probably will be)the schedule for next fall:
    Monday: (Dystopian Future night)
    8:00 – The Tomorrow People (1.3 – 0.9)
    9:00 – The Selection(1.0 – 0.5)/The 100 (1.2 – 0.8)
    Tuesday: (Star crossed lovers/Romance/Fantasy night)
    8:00 – Beauty & The Beast (0.8 – 0.5)
    9:00 – Oxygen (1.1 – 0.4)
    Wednesday: (Male Skewing/Action night)
    8:00 – Arrow (1.2 – 0.9)
    9:00 – Supernatural (1.2 – 0.8)
    Thursday: (Vampire Night)
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries (1.3 – 0.9)
    9:00 – The Originals (1.3 – 0.8)
    Friday: (Female Skewing/Sindycation seasons night)
    8:00 – Hart of Dixie (0.6 – 0.4)
    9:00 – America’s Next Top Model (0.5 – 0.3)/Nikita(0.4 – 0.2)

    Cancellations:
    The Selection, Oxygen & Nikita (Final Season) America’s Next Top Model renewed for 2 final cycles (20, 21) & moved to summer.

  • lorna

    Bummer, really enjoyed this show. How the heck does Hart of Dixie get renewed? I love Rachel Bilson to death but it just pains me to even sit through commercials for it during other shows. CW sucks.

  • Penny

    My prediction is that;

    == Cancelled ==
    Nikita

    == Renewed ==
    The Carrie Diaries

  • BPKK

    @Alvin
    “Whats really a mystery and just idiotic by CW why did they renew BatB a freshman show that only get 0.5 after TVD it can only go down here on and out”

    Because, as Mark Pedowitz has said and the renewals last season of Hart of Dixie and Nikita over the Secret Circle proved, the CW does not base their renewal decisions solely on Nielsen ratings and as one network executive told TV Guide, “There is more financial analysis going on than ratings analysis,”

    And apparently what the TVfortheRestofUs site wrote about BatB was true: “I heard some very positive behind the scenes talk about Beauty and The Beast at WonderCon. The CW really loves the show, and CBS Television Studios really wants to keep this show going.”

    @Richard Steven Hack
    “What’s ridiculous about the number of pilots issue is that I believed the CW COULD pick up a bunch of pilots this season. The fact that they renewed BATB proves I was wrong.”

    Since sites like TVWise are saying that Nikita’s episode order will depend on how many pilots are picked up, you weren’t wrong about the CW’s ability to pick up a bunch of pilots, you were just wrong about which show would be first in line on the chopping block. You wanted it to be BatB but it turned out to be Nikita or maybe Carrie Diaries and then Nikita.

    @RSH
    “After all, the CW isn’t going to debut a NEW show in Nikita’s spot and they have the 9PM slot available, so why does the amount of pilots matter. They have two shows – HoD and BATB – they can move one of which to Friday at 9PM. So why would they have to cancel Nikita to pick up new pilots?”

    Last summer, the CW ran their summer series where their new shows aired Right now, they have announced summer shows starting mid-July on Monday 9pm, Tuesdays 8pm and 9pm and Wednesdays 9pm so maybe they are considering a schedule along these lines:
    Monday:
    8:00 Hart of Dixie
    9:00 ANTM / midseason Reign
    Tuesday:
    8:00 new show (Oxygen?)
    9:00 new show (The Hundred?)
    Wednesday:
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 new show (Tomorrow People?)
    Thursday
    8:00 Vampire
    9:00 Originals
    Friday
    8:00 BATB
    9:00 Supernatural

    mid season spackel Nikita

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