NBC: 'Hannibal' Tumbles To A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 30th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


facepalm-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) renewed 0.99
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.99
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.21
Chicago Fire renewed 1.35
The Office final season 1.39
Revolution renewed 1.57

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Against the NFL Draft last week, Hannibal ratings crashed to just a 1.0 for adults 18-49. The Cancellation Bear considered moving Hannibal to "likely canceled" today, but decided to take a look at one more episode's worth of ratings before going thumbs up or down.

And one more episode is all he's going to get, final guesses for Hannibal, and the rest of the NBC shows are coming on Tuesday, May 7. Buckle up!

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Steve

    Entertainment Weekly blog has Hannibal as CANCELED as of today.

  • Carmen

    @ Jake Snakehole 3

    “They made a mistake and paired Hannibal against Scandal AND Elementary. It needs a new timeslot. Please NBC, be smart about this one. Its the best you have.”

    Ok, fan laments like yours are a dime a dozen.

    You want it moved? Ok, to where? And to what time?

    Do you think it is a good fit for the more Family oriented times of 8:00 and 9:00? And again, if so, Where?

    So many fans like yourself always complain that the reason their show fails is because of the time slot, but they almost never have a good solution to where it should go. Let’s look at it.

    Monday?
    Do you want it to be placed at 8:00 to lead off the night. It will have a good lead out then for 2 hours of the Voice.
    Nope?
    Well, how about putting it on Monday at 10:00 and bump Revolution. Those fans won’t mind a bit, right?

    Tuesday?
    Hey, hold it for the fall and bump Parenthood out of the 10:0 slot. Or maybe
    air it at 8:00 and lead out with the Voice.

    Wednesday?
    How about putting Hannibal at 8:00 against Idol and Survivor. It is sure to do good there.
    Or maybe at 9:00 against Modern Family and Criminal Minds. It’ll surely hurt those more than SVU does.

    Thursday?
    Oh, that’s right, you already think NBC is stupid to air it there at 10:00, right?
    Well, how about moving it and its gore to 8:00.

    That would put it against The Big Bang Theory and 2 1/2 men.
    That would be good counter scheduling, right? Just move the comedies to NBC back to 10:00, right?

    Oh, how about 9:00. You would only have to bump the 2 most successful comedies the network have currently. But that’s not a problem as long as Hannibal gets a better time frame, right?
    And, oh yes. CBC and ABC air Grey’s and Person of Interest at 9:00. Both higher rated than the 10:00 shows you are complaining about Hannibal going against.

    Sunday?
    Possibly for the short term, they could slide it in at the totally inappropriate time (for its content) at 7:00-9:00. It won’t do well there.

    But its sayonara at this time for the entire fall once football starts again.

    So, Jake, It really looks like Hannibal better get on Friday night if its going to be even a mild (by NBC standards success). They can flop it either way with Grimm and it may stick . . or it may not.

    One thing seems pretty sure. If you think Thursday at 10:00 is tough, you don’t want anything else other than Friday in the week. Unless NBC is ready to sacrifice one of their other “success’” like Revolution or Parenthood.

  • B

    This is a great show, if NBC cancels it cable will pick it up

  • Hardline_Pro

    How can Revolution have a 1.57 in the renewal/cancel index?

  • ryan

    I think what killed Hannibal was FOX beating NBC to the punch by airing the Following first. The Following was much, much buzzier. The timeslot wasn’t the issue as much as the late start.

    Since I’m not a fan of the show, this isn’t fan-excuse bingo, right?

  • Raulgnz112

    Hannibal is by far the best show that NBC has right now. It compares to series found on pay-tv. This is by far the best thriller drama out on regular tv. I feel like I am watching a movie. Great writers. You never know what to expect!!!! I hope they find some way to market it so that more people get interested. Maybe showing an encore the same night or a different night like some cable stations do. JUST DONT CANCEL IT!!!!!!!!!

  • k:Alex

    If NBC will this:

    Tuesday:
    8:00 Voice
    9:00 Comedy
    9:30 Comedy
    10:00 Light Drama

    Those comedy’s need to be multicam.
    Multicam could get a bigger audience and we saw this season single cams don’t work after a big audience.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @B
    Posted April 30, 2013 at 2:53 PM
    “This is a great show, if NBC cancels it cable will pick it up”

    Like all the other network cancellations that cable has picked up (with the exception of syndication issues)?

  • rainbowtwizzler

    Now I’m hearing from Deadline that Deception may return even though NOBODY WATCHED IT. I don’t want to live on this Earth anymore.

  • Kim

    PRAYING to get Whitney and TNN back

  • Eren

    Monday:
    08:00 The Voice / The Sing-Off / The Voice
    10:00 Believe (22 episodes)

    Tuesday:
    08:00 The Voice / The Sing-Off / The Voice
    09:00 Michael J. Fox – Project (22 episodes)
    09:30 Undateable (22 episodes)
    10:00 Revolution (22 episodes)

    Wednesday:
    08:00 The Sixth Gun (13 episodes) / Chicago Fire Spin-off (13 episodes)
    09:00 Chicago Fire (24 episodes)
    10:00 Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (22 episodes)

    Thursday:
    08:00 Community (13 episodes) / Go On (13 episodes)
    08:30 About a Boy (22 episodes)
    09:00 Joe, Joe & Jane (24 episodes)
    09:30 Parks & Recreation (13 episodes) / Betty White’s Off Their Rockers (12 episodes)
    10:00 Parenthood (22 episodes)

    Friday:
    08:00 Fashion Star / The Biggest Loser
    09:00 Grimm (22 episodes)
    10:00 Dracula (10 episodes) / Crossbones (10 episodes)

    Sundays:
    Rock Center with Brian Williams
    Dateline NBC
    The Apprentice
    Take It All

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Awake last year = 2.0–>1.6–>1.6–>1.2–>1.0
    Hannibal this year=1.6–>1.7–>1.4–>1.0–>?

    If Hannibal ties or worsens from last week I can’t see it possibly renewed.
    Even if it were to rebound to a 1.3, I just don’t see it happening.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Love the bear pic, too. :-)

    I doubt Hannibal will claw its way back up to renewal level. Unfortunate as the show is excellent.

    Revolution dropped to a 1.8 this week. Going down, down, down, as I predicted. Too bad it’s already renewed. It will die for sure next season.

    Death to Revolution! :-)

  • KJ Styles

    NBC SHOULD renew Hannibal. The NFL draft (and to a lesser extent, the NBA playoffs) are dragged it down to a 1.0 last week. Otherwise, it has been a good performer in what has been a death slot for NBC. Hopefully, the network takes that into consideration when deciding it’s fate.

  • Jefferson

    NBC is going to renew Community because putting up any new show at 8pm on Thursdays is just setting it up for failure. Even as a representative of a new sitcom, the last slot I would want to be put at is 8pm on Thursday. Community is like a sacrificial lamb.

  • Chris J

    @k:alex

    I agree, and I hope NBC puts their stronger Multi-Cams after the Voice next. I think they’d be able to hold a 3+ rating for longer than Go On did, and they’d be good counter-programming to Fox’s single-cams.

    Anyway, I’m pretty sure if Revolution is moved from Monday it’ll be on Tuesday 10pm.

    @Richard Steven Hack

    Don’t be so excited Revolution is tanking. If it tanks that means NBC will be less willing to take a risk on expensive high concept dramas next season, which could put a pilot like the Sixth Gun in jeopardy. The 6th Gun could be a hit, but NBC might pass on it for more dumb cop/medical dramas.

  • Chris J

    @Eren

    That’s a good schedule, but I don’t think NBC will pair single cams and multicam comedies together and also topically I think they’ll keep family focused comedies together.

    Here are my ideas:

    Monday:
    08:00 The Voice / The Sing-Off / The Voice
    10:00 Believe or The Sixth Gun

    Tuesday:
    08:00 The Voice / The Sing-Off / The Voice
    09:00 Sean Hayes Multi-Cam
    09:30 John Mulaney Multi-Cam
    10:00 Revolution (22 episodes)

    Wednesday:
    08:00 Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (22 episodes)
    09:00 Chicago Fire (22 episodes)
    10:00 After hours or Chicago Fire Spin-Off

    Thursday:
    08:00 Community (16 episodes) / Go On (13 episodes)
    08:30 Parks & Rec (22 episodes)
    09:00 Michael J Fox Family Comedy
    09:30 About A Boy
    10:00 Parenthood (22 episodes)

    Friday:
    08:00 Betty White / Celebrity Apprentice
    09:00 Grimm (22 episodes)
    10:00 Dracula (10 episodes) / Crossbones (10 episodes)

    Sundays:
    08:00 NFL / Biggest Loser
    10:00 NFL / Blacklist or Bloodline

    Additional dramas and comedies for midseason:
    Secret Service Drama
    I Am Victor Drama

    Assistance Single Cam Comedy
    Mr Robinson Single Cam Comedy
    Undateable Multi-Cam Comedy

    There are a few things NBC could change around, such as building a comedy bloc on Wednesday as counter-programming to ABC’s, but they need to star small this fall and let their strong returning dramas and reality shows anchor each night.

    Also NBC will have a procedural drama night on Wednesday and a family night on Thursday (9-11pm). Family comedies would be good counter programming to CBS’s comedies such as Two and a Half Men, etc.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Chris J: “that means NBC will be less willing to take a risk on expensive high concept dramas next season”

    Which doesn’t exactly excite me in either direction. High concept dramas can be good or bad depending on execution. I wait until I see the show before judging, but if the premise is brain dead I usually predict failure. Revolution has held up much better in the ratings than I predicted, given the brain dead premise, but now it’s going down.

    “which could put a pilot like the Sixth Gun in jeopardy. The 6th Gun could be a hit”

    I had to look that up in Wikipedia. That concept comic is unlikely to be a hit anywhere. The premise is too weird for broadcast TV. If aired, it will die worse than Firefly. OTOH, that may just be my dislike for period pieces. Occult westerns are a genre I just can’t get into.

  • HV

    Parks and Recreation: Renewed (24 episodes, Thursday, final)
    Community: Renewed (10 episodes, Thursday, final)
    Go On: Renewed (24 episodes, Tuesday)
    The New Normal: Canceled
    Whitney: Canceled
    Guys with Kids: Canceled
    1600 Penn: Canceled

  • Chris J

    @Richard Steven Hack

    That could be the case with the Sixth Gun, but it’s a relatively popular comic franchise just as Walking Dead was before the show. Even so you could be right that the concept won’t be broad enough especially if it’s aired after “The Voice.”

    @HV

    Agreed.

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