NBC: 'Hannibal' Tumbles To A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 30th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) renewed 0.99
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.99
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.21
Chicago Fire renewed 1.35
The Office final season 1.39
Revolution renewed 1.57

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Against the NFL Draft last week, Hannibal ratings crashed to just a 1.0 for adults 18-49. The Cancellation Bear considered moving Hannibal to "likely canceled" today, but decided to take a look at one more episode's worth of ratings before going thumbs up or down.

And one more episode is all he's going to get, final guesses for Hannibal, and the rest of the NBC shows are coming on Tuesday, May 7. Buckle up!

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • HV

    @The End
    You’re right about nothing being set in stone. Up All Night is a good example of that. Its second season the number of episodes changed probably around five or six times.

  • HV

    I need your thoughts for my 2013-14 prediction schedule.

    Monday @ 10:00 Grimm (Sept 9) (13 ep)/The Black List (NEW) (Jan 6) (10 ep–canceled)/Grimm (Mar 31) (9 ep)
    Tuesday @ 8:00 The Voice (Sept 9)/Betty White’s Off Their Rockers (Jan 7)/The Voice (Apr 1)
    Friday @ 8:00 Crossbones (NEW) (Sept 20) (22 ep)/Fashion Star (Mar 28)
    Friday @ 9:00 Dracula (NEW) (Sept 20) (22 ep)/Dateline NBC (Mar 28)

    OR

    Monday @ 10:00 Grimm (Sept 9) (13 ep)/Dracula (NEW) (Jan 6) (10 ep)/Grimm (Mar 31) (9 ep)
    Tuesday @ 8:00 The Voice (Sept 9)/Crossbones (NEW) (Jan 7) (10 ep)/The Voice (Apr 1)
    Friday @ 8:00 Betty White’s Off Their Rockers (Sept 20)/Fashion Star (Mar 28)
    Friday @ 8:30 Greg Daniels/Craig Robinson (NEW) (Sept 20) (22 ep–canceled)/(Fashion Star) (Mar 28)
    Friday @ 9:00 The Black List (NEW) (Sept 20) (13 ep–canceled)/Dateline NBC (Jan 31)

  • HV

    Oops, The Voice on Tuesdays should premire Sept 10 (the Monday episodes premire Sept 9)

  • Chris J

    @HV

    I don’t think NBC should waste “The Voice” lead-in on Grimm.

    Revolution will either keep it’s Monday slot next fall or move to Tuesday and Grimm will most likely be back on Friday.

    Also I don’t think NBC should air new comedies on Friday, until they stabilize Thursday. We might see Go On and/or Community put on Fridays as spackle next fall but I don’t think we’ll see Craig Robinson’s new show there.

    Lastly with the Olympics next February I doubt there will be new programming debuting in early January. NBC can just wait to unveil new comedies and dramas till after the Olympics and if the new shows do well keep them till the end of the season.

  • Yao Shi

    Wow, Hannibal fell to a 1.0? I thought Hannibal Lecter was popular. Where are all the Lecter fans? They’re not watching it? Hannibal is my favorite crime drama behind The Mentalist and The Following. At the very least they (whoever they are) should wait til the show finishes it’s first season before deciding to cancel it or not. Also, I’m always up for new shows, but it seems to me that we have too many shows on TV now. The TV people whatchamacallits need to put a halt to new shows. At least until current shows come to their conclusion or get cancelled. NBC could cancel The Biggest Loser, Jay Leno’s Garage, Ready For Love, All Star Celebrity Apprentice, American Ninja Warrior, Fashion Star, Law & Order:SVU (it’s past time to cancel this archaic show), and one or two of the Late Night Talk shows (Seriously, do you really need 4 Late Night Talk Shows?). That would free up a lot of space. Also, do we really MORE reality shows?! NBC shouldn’t even be considering America’s Got Talent, Camp, Get Out Alive with Bear Grylls, Hollywood Game Night, The Million Second Quiz, and The Winner Is.

  • HV

    @Chris J
    I doubt that NBC would move Grimm back to Fridays after recently moving off of Fridays. I have Parenthood on Tuesday, Revolution, Chicago Fire, and the Chicago Fire spin-off on Wednesday. I have SVU on Thursday. The only other slot on Mon-Thurs where Grimm could air 22 episodes is Monday @ 10:00. I have shows premiring on January 6 and 7 that will air 10 episodes (or 20 in the case of Betty White on Tuesday) over 12 weeks, leaving a two-week intermission. Then The Voice (and Grimm) will return March 31/April 1.

  • klo

    The whole “move it to another timeslot” argument ignores the fact that millions of viewers (enough to make a difference) who currently watch something else in what would be the new timeslot would have to willingly drop what they normally watch in order to watch a show that they don’t’ already care about.

  • beckheck

    I enjoy Hannibal so of course it will be cancelled and replaced by another dumb reality show.

  • HV

    @Yao Shi
    America’s Got Talent is NBC’s top summer show (for now). They’re not canceling it.

  • Mai W

    Hannibal is boring and predictable. I am tired of these programs where seemingly well-trained, brilliant people can’t see what any person with a basic knowledge of human nature and body language could figure out after two interactions. The Following has the same problem. In these days and times, I want a flawed hero not a crippled pawn. Why do the networks think we want to see this?

  • DeanW

    1.1 for Hannibal ? I would say it will be Renewed for 13 episodes. NBC knows it airs on the death slot (for them) and it can get a 1.7.

  • HV

    @DeanW
    I expected it to be down for episode 4 (aka episode 5), but the fact that it stayed down for another week might cost it. I’m sticking with my original prediction of renewal for summer 2014, but if the next episode is 1.1 or below, I think it will get canceled.

  • Ultima

    @beckheck
    I enjoy Hannibal so of course it will be cancelled and replaced by another dumb reality show.

    Excluding Saturdays, the amount of scripted shows on the major broadcast networks has been virtually the same for decades.

    Reality programming has generally replaced newsmagazines and movies of the week.

    I guess you’ll have to find something else to blame for your show being canceled.

  • Jon

    @Yao Shi……new shows to replace old dying ones, or ones who failed to become successful is the cycle of life for tv. Why would you expect a network to stick with a show they will not make any money on. How many advertisers are going to want to buy ad time for a show, when they know nobody is watching it. From the dawn of tv, this is and will continue to be the cycle of tv shows on televison. Hence there is no such things as too many new shows on tv. There will be as many new shows on tv each year as the consumer demands. If your show fails it’s gotta go.

  • Karen W.

    NBC should renew Hannibal, put it on Netflix this summer on instant and then put it up against shows it has a decent chance of beating. Why they put it up against Scandal and Elementary is beyond me.

  • Oli

    Could NBC take the likes of Rules of Engagement from CBS which are going to be cancelled but the numbers which CBS cancel would be great for NBC?

  • Oliver

    @Oli

    In theory, yes.

    In practice, most shows wouldn’t perform as well on another network.

    In the case of RoE, the main reason it is ending is because the cast’s contracts are up and they want to move on.

  • Ultima

    @Oli
    Could NBC take the likes of Rules of Engagement from CBS which are going to be cancelled but the numbers which CBS cancel would be great for NBC?

    I don’t think the numbers would be great for NBC. Rules fell to a 1.6 when it aired with repeats. It would probably get the same low 1s as most of NBC’s current sitcoms.

    Also, what does NBC get from it? Sony is getting all the syndication revenue.

  • Ultima

    @Karen W
    Why they put it up against Scandal and Elementary is beyond me.

    Because Thursday nights are important for advertising revenue and Hannibal is at least doing better than Rock Center was.

  • nickDALLAS

    hannibal is a quality show they will keep it despite ratings. i mean have you seen it? it is wayyyyy better than friggin revolution. revolution looks like it came off of syfy channel

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