NBC: 'Hannibal' Tumbles To A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 30th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


facepalm-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.82
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.87
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) renewed 0.99
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.99
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.21
Chicago Fire renewed 1.35
The Office final season 1.39
Revolution renewed 1.57

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Against the NFL Draft last week, Hannibal ratings crashed to just a 1.0 for adults 18-49. The Cancellation Bear considered moving Hannibal to "likely canceled" today, but decided to take a look at one more episode's worth of ratings before going thumbs up or down.

And one more episode is all he's going to get, final guesses for Hannibal, and the rest of the NBC shows are coming on Tuesday, May 7. Buckle up!

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Oliver

    NBC has no reason to pull Hannibal. It’s late spring, they have no replacements and the rest airs in summer.

    It all depends on how much it’s costing NBC. Assuming its licensing fees are low due to it being an international co-production then I wouldn’t be surprised to see it return next spring/summer.

  • Alan

    The thing is that Smash is doing fairly well on Saturdays, and the DVR ratings are insane, it should get another season and maybe stay on Saturdays, but that’s very unlikely to happen.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @Alan
    Posted May 6, 2013 at 10:32 AM
    “The thing is that Smash is doing fairly well on Saturdays, and the DVR ratings are insane, it should get another season and maybe stay on Saturdays, but that’s very unlikely to happen”

    It won’t happen. The networks are not going to start airing new scripted programming on Saturday nights given the lack of viewers. To do so would be too expensive. To do so for Smash would be Waaayyyyy to expensive.

    That Smash doubles its ratings means nothing really. Double a dreadfully small awful number is still a dreadfully small number.
    If you were on a desert island living but starving to death on two peanuts a day and I arrived and doubled your peanut ration to four, you would still be starving and die……..like Smash.

  • DanOregon

    While I appreciate Hannibal’s more introspective tone – the show could use some suspense. A chase of some kind, a ticking clock episode.

  • HV

    @Ultima
    “The show wasn’t moved until after they canceled it.”
    More like, the show was moved to Saturdays signaling that they canceled it. It was move=cancelation, not cancelation then move.

    @Alan
    “The thing is that Smash is doing fairly well on Saturdays, and the DVR ratings are insane”
    I don’t know anything about the DVR ratings, but I would not say that it is doing fairly well on Saturdays. The only way the show would have had a chance after getting moved to Saturday is if it was pulling the same numbers as on Tuesday, showing that it has a very loyal audience and can be placed in death slots. But, besides, @Anthony Parello (AP076) is right when he says that Smash is expensive. A cheap show, could have up to a 15% chance at renewal. Smash, 0.0001% chance at renewal.

  • Ultima

    @HV
    More like, the show was moved to Saturdays signaling that they canceled it. It was move=cancelation, not cancelation then move.

    I’m sure that NBC decided that the show was dead before they decided what to do with it (leave it where it was, pull it entirely, burn it off on Saturdays, burn it off during the Summer, etc.).

  • Ultima

    @Anthony Parello
    If you were on a desert island living but starving to death on two peanuts a day and I arrived and doubled your peanut ration to four, you would still be starving and die……..like Smash.

    But not Hannibal! ;)

  • Ann

    Hannibal wouldn’t be the first outstanding show NBC decides to cancel.

  • sophia

    If this show gets cancelled im gonna riot.

  • telegram for Mongo

    if they can give that trainwreck of a show Revolution a 2nd season you can give Hannibal 1 more at least!!

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