ABC: Final Predictions For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Nashville,' 'The Neighbors,' 'Malibu Country' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

  Robert Bill
Happy Endings ABC 5% 0%
Red Widow ABC 0% 0%
Family Tools ABC 5% 0%
Malibu Country ABC 45% 40%
Body Of Proof ABC 55% 60%
Neighbors, The ABC 60% 60%
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC 55% 75%
Last Man Standing ABC 95% 90%
Nashville ABC 99% 90%
Castle ABC 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy ABC 100% 100%
Middle, The ABC 100% 100%
Modern Family ABC 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time ABC 100% 100%
Revenge ABC 100% 100%
Scandal ABC 100% 100%
Suburgatory ABC 95% 100%

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5/10 Update: Happy Endings, Family Tools, How To Live With Your Parents have all been canceled. Body Of Proof and Red Widow have been canceled. Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, The Middle, and Modern Family have been renewed.

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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final ABC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm quite confident in all but the shows predicted in the 40-75% range. If one or two of those go against my prediction I won't be particularly surprised.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Happy Endings (some F) :oops: 0.49
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Red Widow :oops: 0.54
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country* (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Body Of Proof :| :| :| 0.72
Last Man Standing* (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Family Tools :oops: 0.78
The Neighbors* :| :| :| 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How To Live With Your Parents :| :| :| 1.15
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.06

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • TJ

    Fingers crossed for a fourth season of Body of Proof.

    Roughly, when will we know whether BOP has been renewed or canceled?

  • Hmm

    @TJ

    ABC – May 14th

  • frodo

    I think everything will be renewed besides Red Widow, Family Tools and Happy Endings(which will be picked up by someone else).

  • katelyn

    Hopefully ABC will announce their renewals and cancellations by the end of this week since the upfronts are next week.

  • Sel

    Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Malibu Country – Renewed and Happy Endings shipped off to USA and I’m a happy person!

  • TV Freeeeek

    Any odds for HE being picked up by USA or TBS? I’ll take anything around a 50/50

  • SJ

    Happy Endings – 0%
    Family Tools – 0%
    Red Widow – 0%
    Malibu Country – 33%
    The Neighbors – 40%
    How to Live with Your Parents – 55%
    Nashville – 60%
    Last Man Standing – 75%
    Suburgatory – 100%
    Castle – 100%
    Once Upon a Time – 100%
    Revenge – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%
    Scandal – 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%
    The Middle – 100%

  • rob60990

    I know you all have been anxious to see my schedule! ;)

    Monday
    8:00- DWTS/The Bachelor
    10:00- Castle

    Tuesday
    8:00- Suburgatory (NEW NIGHT & TIME)
    8:30- Trophy Wife (NEW COMEDY)
    9:00- DWTS Results
    10:00- Lucky 7 (NEW DRAMA)

    Wednesday
    8:00- The Middle
    8:30- The Goldbergs (NEW COMEDY)
    9:00- Modern Family
    9:30- How to Live with your Parents (Sept-Jan)/ Back in the Game (Jan-May)
    10:00- Nashville

    Thursday
    8:00- Shield (NEW DRAMA)
    9:00- Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00- Scandal

    Friday
    8:00- Last Man Standing
    8:30- King John (NEW COMEDY)
    9:00- Shark Tank
    10:00- 20/20

    Sunday
    7:00- AFV
    8:00- Once Upon a Time
    9:00- Revenge
    10:00- Betrayal (NEW DRAMA)

    Midseason: Wife Swap, Body of Proof, Murder in Manhattan, Big Thunder, Once Spinoff, Super Fun Night, Bad Management.

    Still unsure: Malibu Country. According to deadline, King John looks good but hasn’t been screened. ABC could use it in case it fails too. I honestly can’t make a decision.

    Note: This schedule is a mixture of what I think ABC will do and what I want them to do. For example I think they should move DWTS but they won’t. They also won’t cancel the results show at least not in the fall. If they get a couple of hits in the fall, they may do it.

  • SJ

    Blergh… forgot about the most interesting tidbit:

    Body of Proof – 67%

    Yes, I think it’s more likely to be renewed over Nashville (not that I’m predicting Nashville’s cancellation or anything). And yes, I do think there’s a 2:1 chance that we’ll see BoP next season in some capacity.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Any odds for HE being picked up by USA or TBS? I’ll take anything around a 50/50″

    No idea, no analytical basis for my guessing.

  • Dan

    Here’s the most likely guess

    Renewed: Grey’s Anatomy, Scandal, Castle, Revenge, Once Upon a Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Suburgatory, Last Man Standing, How to Live With Your Parents, Body of Proof and Nashville.

    Cancelled: Malibu Country, The Neighbors, Happy Endings, Red Widow, Family Tools

    Renewed by USA: Happy Endings

    The only thing that wouldn’t surprise me is if The Neighbors was renewed but my guess is its more likely cancelled then renewed.

  • Harry

    Congrats to Revenge. Wasn’t sure you were going to survive the terrible new characters and storylines inflicted on you this season. Please, please, please write Aiden out of the show in the finale.

  • TheFrenchGuy

    My odds:

    Happy Endings (0% on ABC)
    Family Tool (0%)
    Modern Family (100%)
    The Middle (100%)
    Suburgatory (100%)
    How to Live with Your Parents (75%)
    Last Man Standing (90%)
    Malibu Country (50%)
    The Neighbors (85%)
    Castle (100%)
    Body of Proof (55%)
    Nashville (95%)
    Grey’s Anatomy (100%)
    Scandal (100%)
    Once Upon a Time (100%)
    Revenge (100%)
    Red Widow (-10%)

  • israelCD

    REVENGE isn’t Going Anywhere ! Loves It ! HATERS Will Deal !

  • SJ

    Here’s my final schedule. You’ll notice that How to Live… isn’t on it, because, even though I predict ABC will renew it, I hope they cancel it.

    Monday
    8:00- DWTS/The Bachelor/DWTS
    10:00- Castle

    Tuesday
    8:00- Shark Tank
    9:00- DWTS Results/Wife Swap/DWTS Results
    10:00- New Drama (Doubt)

    Wednesday
    8:00- The Middle
    8:30- Suburgatory
    9:00- Modern Family
    9:30- New Comedy (Trophy Wife)
    10:00- Nashville

    Thursday
    8:00- New Drama (Shield)
    9:00- Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00- Scandal

    Friday
    8:00- Last Man Standing
    8:30- New Comedy (King John)
    9:00- Primetime: What Would You Do?/Primetime: Nightline
    10:00- 20/20

    Sunday
    7:00- America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00- Once Upon a Time
    9:00- Revenge
    10:00- New Drama (Westside aka Venice)

    Mid-season: Body of Proof

  • Dan

    @Robert – Give Family Tools’ 5% to Suburgatory, and Happy Endings 5% to Last Man Standing and its much more accurate.

    History hopefully repeats itself so like how ABC cancelled Cougar Town and TBS picked it up, I can see ABC cancelling Happy Endings so USA can pick it up.

  • Wright

    Renew OUAT and cancel the rest.

  • One

    Why would they renew BOP? Unless they’re just going to screw over SHIELD w/ the Thursday @ 8 slot after all…

  • Chris L

    Poor Family Tools. It doesn’t even get in the headline one time since it debuted so late. :)

  • Juan

    Please pick up happy endings USA, I’m fine with the rest of renewals and maybe cancellations.

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