ABC: Final Predictions For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Nashville,' 'The Neighbors,' 'Malibu Country' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

  Robert Bill
Happy Endings ABC 5% 0%
Red Widow ABC 0% 0%
Family Tools ABC 5% 0%
Malibu Country ABC 45% 40%
Body Of Proof ABC 55% 60%
Neighbors, The ABC 60% 60%
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC 55% 75%
Last Man Standing ABC 95% 90%
Nashville ABC 99% 90%
Castle ABC 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy ABC 100% 100%
Middle, The ABC 100% 100%
Modern Family ABC 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time ABC 100% 100%
Revenge ABC 100% 100%
Scandal ABC 100% 100%
Suburgatory ABC 95% 100%

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5/10 Update: Happy Endings, Family Tools, How To Live With Your Parents have all been canceled. Body Of Proof and Red Widow have been canceled. Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, The Middle, and Modern Family have been renewed.

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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final ABC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm quite confident in all but the shows predicted in the 40-75% range. If one or two of those go against my prediction I won't be particularly surprised.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Happy Endings (some F) :oops: 0.49
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Red Widow :oops: 0.54
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country* (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Body Of Proof :| :| :| 0.72
Last Man Standing* (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Family Tools :oops: 0.78
The Neighbors* :| :| :| 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How To Live With Your Parents :| :| :| 1.15
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.06

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Dan

    @One – Actaully Shield may save the troubled Thursday 8pm slot, and they would renew BOP for midseason but in case they have a flop (Likely in the slot of Tuesday at 10 or Wed at 10, ABC can simply fill the slot with BOP. Nashville will probably be moved to Sundays at 10.

  • Brian

    Save Body Of Proof!

  • Rebecca

    I just realized I watch the most shows on ABC. Hoping for renewals for Modern Family (duh), Grey’s (duh), Nashville (75%) and Revenge (75%)

  • Scott M

    Pretty much in agreement with Robert and Bill on everything except Neighbors which I would put at 40%.

  • S

    NASHVILLE!!! WOOT WOOT

  • Ginger

    MONDAY
    8 p.m. “Dancing With the Stars”
    10 p.m. “Castle”
    (consistency)

    TUESDAY
    8 p.m. “The Middle” (new night)
    8:30 p.m. “How to Live With Your Parents” (new night)
    9 p.m. “Dancing With the Stars” results / Last Man Standing (new night)
    9:30 p.m. “Dancing With the Stars” results / Malibu Country (new night)
    10 p.m. “Nashville” (new night)
    (comedy can work on Tuesday and Tim Allen and Zoey Deschanel are different audiences, Nashville should do well after Dancing or Reba)

    WEDNESDAY
    8 p.m. “Suburgatory” (new time)
    8:30 p.m.”Trophy Wife” (new comedy)
    9 p.m. “Modern Family”
    9:30 p.m. “Super Fun Night” (new comedy)
    10 p.m. “Gothica” (new drama)
    New comedies and new drama.

    THURSDAY
    8 p.m. “Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.” (new drama)
    9 p.m. “Grey’s Anatomy”
    10 p.m. “Scandal”
    Maybe Joss Whedon can break the Ugly Betty curse in the 8 p.m. slot.

    FRIDAY
    8 p.m. Shark Tank (new time)
    9 p.m. “Killer Women” (new drama)
    10 p.m. “20/20″
    It’s Friday…

    SUNDAY
    7 p.m. “America’s Funniest Home Videos”
    8 p.m. “Once Upon a Time” (fall/spring)/”Once Upon a Time in Wonderland” (midseason)
    9 p.m. “Revenge”
    10 p.m. “West Side” OR “Murder in Manhattan” (new drama)
    Fresh fairy tale stories and a soap that will fit with Revenge.

  • Carmen

    @ SJ

    Pretty good predictions for ABC.

    The only think I disagree with is that I think you have Malibu Country too low. I think – entirely because of Reba – that they will give this show a chance to re-tool itself. My guess is that it will start off next season where it left off this year – In the Friday slot following Last Man Standing.

    I hope they renew The Neighbors because it is quirky and not like everything else on the network. I enjoy it.

    The problem is with a camp show like (The Neighbors), though, is that when it goes down, it won’t just slide slowly. It will totally crash. The question for ABC is does that happen in year 2 or 3?

    It’s ratings deserve a nod for a second season, but the chances of it going into a 3rd (or 4th) are very low.

    As a result, what should ABC do? The 40% you gave is just about right.

    How to Live. . .Rest of Life is in my opinion awful and will never survive a 2nd season. My guess, it will get a mid season renewal. Come back and bomb and be gone.

  • Tom Shaw

    Happy Endings 0%
    Red Widow 0%
    Family Tools 0% (With how much excess they have, had to succeed out of the gate.)
    Malibu Country 20% (I don’t see ABC keeping MC over, say, The Neighbors. Maybe ABC keeps MC on Friday and holds The Neighbors for the DWTS-gap, but its a long shot.)
    How To Live… 55% (Not a lot of room on the schedule, 4 years from syndication, little track record to go on. I’ve got no clue.)
    Last Man Stand 60% (I’m just not convinced ABC sticks with a show they didn’t even give a full order to over Wednesday shows that did.)
    Neighbors, The 66% (Given a 13 episode spackle run or 18 episode Friday run.)
    Body Of Proof 66% (The only real procedural spackle option, even if the ratings weren’t great (and no tax break this year).)
    Suburgatory 75% (Not enough slots on the schedule, especially if How to Live survives.)
    Nashville 90% (If ABC loves all their pilots, it could get the boot.)

  • Dan

    @TV Freeeeeek – TBS is unlikely to pick it up but USA is very interested, especially because this fall they will be airing Modern Family repeats so they want new comedy programming to pair with it and Happy Endings is perfect. Similar to how TBS paired Big Bang reruns with Cougar Town originals.

  • Fred

    Here’s my last fantasy schedule for Fall 2013:

    Sunday

    AFHV-7:00
    BACHELOR- 8:00- 2 hours- Should compete better here than scripted programs.
    NASHVILLE- 10:00- Should perform better here than all the failed dramas. Perhaps improve upon Wednesday’s performance.

    Monday

    DWTS-8:00- 2 Hours- With a fresh and new format.
    CASTLE-10:00

    Tuesday

    OUAT-8:00- Risky, but shouldn’t perform worse than it has been doing. Hopefully the VOICE will start to erode like the other music contests.
    NEW SHOW- 9:00- SHIELD- Really hope this show takes off. Huge built in audience.
    NEW SHOW- 10:00- BOP should return later in season.

    I’m still against another hour of DWTS here. I’m sure they can announce results the next week and change the format. The show is getting very old, it is in need of a change anyway. No way does it warrant 3 HOURS anymore!

    Wednesday

    MIDDLE-8:00
    SUBURGATORY-
    MODERN FAMILY-9:00
    NEW SITCOM- Bring back How To Live later in the season.
    REVENGE-10:00- Should perform a bit better than Nashville here.

    Thursday

    SHARK TANK-8:00- This move should help ABC’s death slot
    GREY’S-9:00
    SCANDAL-10:010

    Friday

    LAST MAN STANDING-8:00
    MALIBU COUNTRY
    NEIGHBORS-(9:00
    NEW SITCOM
    20/20-10:00

    2 new 30 min sitcoms and 2 new 1 hour scripted shows. 3 hours of new programing for the Fall.

  • Marc

    I see a cop-out! I don’t see EVERY Wednesday comedy tried this year (minus tools) making it. There is no room for Parents, Sub, and Neighbors unless they arent picking much else up. Personally id scrap Sub and Neighbors because any new show will do just as well as these fillers, so not much to lose. I also don’t think MC gets canned, its ratings are too good for the time slot and at worst they would want acsafety net. I also think MC helps LMS. I think there are some people who watch LMS because they are waiting for MC, much in the same way MC benefits from LMS. Plus, i guarantee Rebas built in fan base is larger than John Leguz. As for BOP, Certainly they can find a show that can pull a 1.4 with a decent lead in. Right, ABC?

  • Cass

    @Marc
    As for BOP, Certainly they can find a show that can pull a 1.4 with a decent lead in. Right, ABC?

    Given the steep drops in ratings year by year, they might prefer to go with a show that’s cheap due to some kind of tax break and is a known quantity as schedule spackle in the event of new shows going kaput next fall than more pricey, less reliable shows.

  • David

    @Marc
    So you would scrap Suburgatory with 2 seasons under its belt but keep ratings loser Malibu Country with less than a full season?!

  • Jonay

    If ABC doesn’t do a comedy Friday were will they put Last Man Standing?

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    1. Where do %’s come from. “95/100 times this situation occurred, it was renewed”? I doubt that. I think it’s more of a relative to to other shows type situation. Meaning odds makers like 2/1, 9/1, 100/1 would be more accurate, but harder for readers to understand & much harder for readers to duplicate their guesses.

    2. ABC comedies is very hard to figure out, save for their Top 2 TM/MF & closish to syndication, doing well for Friday LMS. ABC might want to expand, keep the same number or get rid of an hour of comedy even clean house minus 3. I just can’t accurately predict that. So, my % are more based on relative to priority for keeping.

    Happy Endings 0% on ABC, only on USA if it’s quality & Sony’s deal is better than developing their own.
    Red Widow 0%
    Family Tools 0% Low debut plus way late debut when they could have aired it way earlier.
    Malibu Country 55% If 1hr TGIF block, 95% if 2hr TGIF block, 35% if Tuesday comedy block is removed.
    Body Of Proof 15% as fall/full season, 65% as schedule spackle
    Neighbors, The 55% if 1hr TGIF block or few new comedies or keep Tuesday comedies.
    How To Live With Your Parents… 15% similar to Family Tools but ratings are a tad better mostly/b/c of the better MF lead in.
    Last Man Standing 99% Only if they scrap TGIF.
    Nashville 95% It’s not going to syndicate well/if at all esp with it’s repeat ratings, it’s a serial, however ratings are solid & music sales plus reviews tip it well in it for a 2 season & done, at the very least show.
    Castle ABC 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy 100%
    Middle, The 100%
    Modern Family 100%
    Once Upon A Time 100% They might have bad ratings for s4 but s3 will be high enough esp since Disney will want to keep this going.
    Revenge ABC 95% Ratings for s4 are def looking bad even s3 doesn’t look to promising but it’s still high enough, bigger concerns for other slots to allow for a 4 and done.
    Scandal ABC 100%
    Suburgatory 99% not 100% only if they remove Tuesday comedy hour & they choose NEW over old. Def 4th most important comedy for ABC.

    Comedy Order:
    Modern Family
    (2 spaces)
    The Middle
    (1 space)
    Last Man Standing
    (1 space)
    Suburgatory
    Malibu Country
    Neighbors
    (2 spaces)
    How To Live
    Family Tools
    Happy Endings

    Right now, there are 8 half hour comedy slots. I’m sure ABC sees they are #4 Network, even though they don’t have hours of Idol/Voice or solid cop dramas & DWTS is solid but avg. Which should tell them that they should try new comedies. They do have a lot of comedy pilots that they are testing, so that leads me to believe they want more than just 1 or 2 new comedies. Which means that some cuts will have to be made. How deep depends on just how well the pilots test & how much they want to go with 2/3ds type seasons/ double up for burnoff in a cancelled dramas slot again.

  • Brian

    Here is my 2 cents worth…I believe/wish they have to be aggressive. I would LOVE for a network (preferably ABC) to take a chance a schedule all 10pm shows as original all year. Summer could be used to “catch up on what you missed out of” sort of promotion.

    Monday
    8:00- DWTS/The Bachelor/DWTS
    10:00- DOUBT, it sounds like the best of all ABC DRAMA PILOTS, with really likable cast

    Tuesday
    8:00- BACK IN THE GAME
    8:30- SUPER FUN NIGHT/MIXOLOGY
    ***BIG THUNDER after the ACADEMY AWARDS!!!!!
    9:00- DWTS Results/Wife Swap/DWTS Results
    10:00- MAID IN MANHATTAN/WESTSIDE….all originals, all year long

    Wednesday
    8:00- The Middle
    8:30- THE GOLDBERGS (with ADOPTED in the wings)
    9:00- Modern Family
    9:30- TROPHY WIFE (with BAD MANAGEMENT in the wings)
    10:00- Nashville/Revenge…all originals all year long

    Thursday
    8:00- SHARK TANK, has to be done, do not want to see even SHIELD flounder here
    9:00- Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00- Scandal

    Friday
    8:00- Last Man Standing
    8:30- New Comedy (King John)
    9:00- Malibu Country
    9:30- The Neighbors
    10:00- 20/20

    Sunday
    7:00- America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00- Once Upon a Time
    9:00- Shield
    10:00- Castle
    ***Mid-season: ONCE UPON A TIME IN WONDERLAND, 8pm when OUAT original ends it’s 22 episode run
    ***Castle needs to move, and its audience will go with it; and they may get more male viewers too by playing the comic “geek card” b/t SHIELD and Nathan Fillion. Plus SHIELD and CASTLE will repeat well on Sundays when in repeat.

    Mid-season: Body of Proof for wherever needs it, it deserves a renewal.

  • Greg

    Red Widow – 0%
    Family Tools – 0%
    Happy Endings – 0%
    The Neighbors – 40%
    Body of Proof – 55%
    How to Live with Your Parents – 55%
    Malibu Country – 60%
    Nashville – 70%
    Last Man Standing – 80%
    Suburgatory – 90%
    Revenge – 100%
    Castle – 100%
    Once Upon a Time – 100%
    The Middle – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%
    Scandal – 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%

    Of all the five networks, I’m most curious about ABC’s schedule, just because I don’t know what they can do with so many comedies. I think it would be a mistake to add another hour to the Friday comedy block and move Shark Tank to a different night, but that seems like the only solution for them. I also believe it would be a mistake to premiere a new comedy after LMS instead of sticking with Malibu Country, since nothing will do any better with such a weak lead in.

  • Marc

    “@Marc
    So you would scrap Suburgatory with 2 seasons under its belt but keep ratings loser Malibu Country with less than a full season?!”

    1. I look at multi-cams and single cams independently because they are not interchangeable in the schedule. (No one is going to stick one muliti-cam in the same block as 3 single cams, nor will they stick Neighbors at 8:30 behind LMS.) ABC only has two multicams. Both performed well for their time period. Even if they pick up another multi-cam, you still want to have a back-up. They didn’t have a back-up this year because I think MC performed how they anticipated it would. But starting a new multi-cam sitcom without a big star is much riskier. No, John Leg-cant-spell-his-last-name is not a big star. Though I did enjoy when he was Luigi when I was a kid.

    2. ABC only has 2 new multicams. Divorce isn’t even off the ground and King John is hopeful, but not much else. I doubt they launch the season with only 2 multicams. I’d more expect they bring in both new ones and keep LMS and MC. I suspect that ABC may want to have an extra hour of multicams available if/when they need it for a hapless hour in 2013/14 they are struggling with. Example: Tuesdays and Thursdays at 8 have been a disaster. A pair of multi-cams may have been a good replacement option when Last Resort/Splash/Everything failed.

    3. ABC has 4,286 new single cams, a lot of them look very good on paper, and a handful are sure to be picked up. MF and Middle are not going anywhere. If they keep Sub, Parents, and Neighbors they already have 5 single cams. ABC went to season with 8 single cams (I believe), 7 not counting Family Tools because… why did they bring us this anyways? So now you are only looking at 2-3 new single cams, or a whole lot of mid-season replacements and partial orders like Parents and Tools.

    4. Let’s not pretend that Suburgatory’s ratings are all that great. I would probably keep it over Neighbors and Parents, but I think all three do about the same retentionwise. Sub is also in a ratings freefall vs last year and week to week this year. I think ABC putting Suburgatory for the full hour to close out the season was a test to see if it could reasonably take the place of The Middle to start the 2-hr block, so Middle could be moved to Tuesdays at 8. I would say the answer is a “no.” It scored a 1.5 in The Middle hour, down from the 2ish that Middle normally gets. Then it closed out with a 1.7 heading into MF. Those are not really mind-blowing numbers, and I wouldn’t even argue that they are better than the 1.4 MC got to close out the season. I wonder if Suburgatory would get a 1.4 on Friday, or would they look like Happy Endings?

    Realistically, one should be picked up. If you are going with 3 hours of single cams, you want three returning veterans to start the hours. Suburgatory would probably get the nod as the best chance at starting an hour, but a 1.5 is hardly comforting. ABC might even want to start the season with new eps of Moden Family at 8 and 9 PM and after a few weeks promote one of the new shows to the 8PM slot.

  • DuMont

    Cancelled:
    Happy Endings
    Red Widow
    Family Tools
    How To Live With Your Parents…
    Nashville

    Renewed:
    Body Of Proof (13 episodes)
    Castle ABC
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country
    Middle, The
    Modern Family
    Neighbors, The
    Once Upon A Time
    Revenge
    Scandal
    Suburgatory

  • Dan

    I doubt Malibu Country will return even with Reba’s presense. The fact is that the show just lost too much of its LMS lead in and ABC can do better.

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