ABC: Final Predictions For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Nashville,' 'The Neighbors,' 'Malibu Country' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

  Robert Bill
Happy Endings ABC 5% 0%
Red Widow ABC 0% 0%
Family Tools ABC 5% 0%
Malibu Country ABC 45% 40%
Body Of Proof ABC 55% 60%
Neighbors, The ABC 60% 60%
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC 55% 75%
Last Man Standing ABC 95% 90%
Nashville ABC 99% 90%
Castle ABC 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy ABC 100% 100%
Middle, The ABC 100% 100%
Modern Family ABC 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time ABC 100% 100%
Revenge ABC 100% 100%
Scandal ABC 100% 100%
Suburgatory ABC 95% 100%

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5/10 Update: Happy Endings, Family Tools, How To Live With Your Parents have all been canceled. Body Of Proof and Red Widow have been canceled. Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, The Middle, and Modern Family have been renewed.

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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final ABC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm quite confident in all but the shows predicted in the 40-75% range. If one or two of those go against my prediction I won't be particularly surprised.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Happy Endings (some F) :oops: 0.49
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Red Widow :oops: 0.54
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country* (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Body Of Proof :| :| :| 0.72
Last Man Standing* (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Family Tools :oops: 0.78
The Neighbors* :| :| :| 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How To Live With Your Parents :| :| :| 1.15
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.06

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Eliot

    MY RENEWAL/CANCELLATION PREDICTIONS:

    Happy Endings (cancelled; will be picked by USA)
    Red Widow (cancelled)
    Family Tools (cancelled)
    Malibu Country (cancelled)
    How To Live With Your Parents… (cancelled)
    Body Of Proof (renewed; mid-season)
    The Neighbors (renewed)
    Last Man Standing (renewed)
    Nashville (renewed)
    Castle (renewed)
    Grey’s Anatomy (renewed)
    The Middle (renewed)
    Modern Family (renewed)
    Once Upon A Time (renewed)
    Revenge (renewed)
    Scandal (renewed)
    Suburgatory (renewed)

  • Joseph

    Look for ABC’s Friday-night schedule this Fall to be a mix of reality and newsmagazines, with no scripted shows.

  • Ultima

    @Joseph
    Look for ABC’s Friday-night schedule this Fall to be a mix of reality and newsmagazines, with no scripted shows.

    Because the sitcom block did so terrible this season? Especially compared to – oh, I don’t know – their Tuesday sitcom block?

  • Ultima

    Grey’s Anatomy, Scandal, Once Upon a Time, Revenge and Castle are all certain to be renewed. I’m not as confident with Nashville, but I think it will be renewed. Body of Proof will probably be picked up as midseason filler again. Red Widow will obviously be canceled.

    Modern Family, The Middle, Suburgatory and Last Man Standing are all certain to be renewed. I think only one of HTLWYP and The Neighbors will be renewed, but I haven’t a clue which. Malibu Country and The Family Tools will be canceled.

  • Len Jaffe

    I would really like to see “Nashville” picked up for one more year. The writing for the show seems to have suffered since the first of the year, but the music has been fantastic. Claire Bowen absolutely knocks me out with her singing. Hayden and Connie are good, but neither one holds a candle to Claire.

  • Tori

    Those How to Live With Your Parents numbers are too high. I’d say they’ve got a 25% chance of returning, maybe 35% as a midseason replacement and that’s it. A short first season means nowhere close to syndication and ABC loves their comedy pilots this year. No way is it in the favorable column given its new, isn’t a breakout hit, just a decent performer, didn’t fare well on it’s own and from an outside studio. Plus, you gotta figure there are cheaper shows out there as well with Chalke, Garrett and Perkins likely commanding higher than average per episode salaries. ABC has many other options this pilot season, I don’t see this one returning for a variety of reasons.

  • Fred

    @Rebecca

    Myself, family and friends also watch many ABC shows. Here is what we enjoy on ABC:

    OUAT
    REVENGE
    666 PARK AVE ( will be missed)

    CASTLE

    BODY OF PROOF

    MIDDLE
    MODERN
    NASHVILLE

    GREY’S
    SCANDAL

    Probably the most addictive scripted programs on broadcast television.
    We also occasionally watch DWTS, SHARK TANK, PRIME TIME and 20/20

  • Fred

    I forgot HAPPY ENDINGS.
    Will miss that one so much.
    That fantastic sitcom deserves a pick up somewhere!

  • R Nicole Taylor

    Malibu Country will be renewed:maybe on a trial basis with a limited number of shows, but I believe ABC will give it a second chance. I agree, ABC should promote the show. It is like they hung it out to dry or die.

  • Dan S

    If ABC does keep How To Live (I think they will) it should be kept in its current slot after MF. A renewal along with a move to another day will kill it like Apt 23 & HE. Nashville should be paired up with DWTS on Sundays & scrap the results show. If Super Fun Night is picked up I think it should pair up with Suburgatory as its lead in. Maybe try it out on Mon assuming DWTS is relocated. I think ABC will have the most surprises when they announce their upfront schedule next week.

  • AA

    Red Widow 0%
    Family Tools 0%
    Happy Endings 30%
    Malibu Country 30%
    Neighbors, The ABC 40%
    How To Live With Your Parents… 40%
    Body Of Proof 60%
    Last Man Standing 80%
    Nashville 80%

    100%:
    Castle
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Middle, The
    Modern Family
    Once Upon A Time
    Revenge
    Scandal
    Suburgatory

  • Fred

    @AA

    Happy Endings @ 30%. Do you mean to renewed by another network?
    Because it would be close to zero if you meant ABC.

    Last season at around this time I was praying that Cougar Town would be renewed on another network. Because it was hopeless on ABC.
    Now I’m praying just as hard for Happy Endings.
    My two favorite adult oriented sitcoms.

    I also love the family oriented Middle and Modern but for different reasons.

  • Melanie P.

    All I honestly care about is Grey’s and Scandal and both will be renewed for sure, so I am very happy. :)

  • AJS

    My guesses:

    Happy Endings 0%
    Red Widow 0%
    Family Tools 0%
    Malibu Country 50%
    Body Of Proof 75%
    Neighbors, The 50%
    How To Live With Your Parents… 50%
    Last Man Standing 100%
    Nashville 100%
    Castle 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy 100%
    Middle, The 100%
    Modern Family 100%
    Once Upon A Time 100%
    Revenge 100%
    Scandal 100%
    Suburgatory 100%

  • John

    @SJ
    after recent ratings i doubt abc puts dancing with the stars on twice a year

  • Drew

    I have stop watching Revenge. It got ridiculous and hard to follow. It was really good initially as Emily exacted Revenge on all of Hamptons high society. The plot took a turn for worse with The initiative. I had enough. Nashville isn’t bad. I would like to see ABC come up with some interesting dramas or a show as intriguing as Lost. It seems all they are doing is trying to replicate Desperate Housewives with shows appealing to women. Revenge, Nashville and Scandal are all basically soap operas.

  • omabin

    My guesses:
    – Modern Family: 100%
    – The Middle: 100%
    – Last Man Standing: 95%
    – Suburgatory: 90%
    – How to Live with Your Parents: 65%
    – Malibu Country: 51% [I really want to put 50% on this one, but oh well]
    – The Neighbors: 55%
    – Happy Endings: 45% [Though these odds concern mostly a pickup from another network, and I still predict it won’t happen]
    – Family Tools: 0%

    – Grey’s Anatomy: 100%
    – Scandal: 100%
    – Once Upon a Time: 100%
    – Castle: 100%
    – Revenge: 100%
    – Nashville: 85%
    – Body of Proof: 80%
    – Red Widow: 0%

  • Randy

    Oh, I like the 90% & 95% Last Man Standing chances!

  • Chris O’Brien

    2013-2014 ABC Schedule

    Sunday:
    7:00- AFV
    8:00- Once Upon a Time
    9:00- Revenge
    10:00- Castle

    Monday:
    8:00- DWTS (fall & spring)/The Bachelor
    10:00- Nashville

    Tuesday:
    8:00- How to Live with your Parents…
    8:30- Last Man Standing
    9:00- DWTS Results
    10:00- New Drama

    Wednesday:
    8:00- The Middle
    8:30- Suburgatory
    9:00- Modern Family
    9:30- The Neighbors/new comedy
    10:00- New Drama

    Thursday:
    8:00- Body of Proof/Shark Tank
    9:00- Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00- Scandal

    Friday:
    8:00- OUAT spinoff
    9:00- Shark Tank
    10:00- 20/20

  • Charmed

    My predictions:

    Red Widow: 0%
    Family Tools: 0%
    The Neighbors: 10%
    Happy Endings: 50% (To get picked up by another network, 0% to get picked up by ABC)
    Malibu Country: 60%
    How To Live With Your Parents: 75%
    Nashville: 80%
    Body Of Proof: 85%
    Last Man Standing: 95%
    Revenge: 99%
    Suburgatory: 100%
    Modern Family: 100%
    Once Upon A Time: 100%
    Castle: 100%
    The Middle: 100%
    Scandal: 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy: 100%

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