ABC: Final Predictions For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Nashville,' 'The Neighbors,' 'Malibu Country' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

  Robert Bill
Happy Endings ABC 5% 0%
Red Widow ABC 0% 0%
Family Tools ABC 5% 0%
Malibu Country ABC 45% 40%
Body Of Proof ABC 55% 60%
Neighbors, The ABC 60% 60%
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC 55% 75%
Last Man Standing ABC 95% 90%
Nashville ABC 99% 90%
Castle ABC 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy ABC 100% 100%
Middle, The ABC 100% 100%
Modern Family ABC 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time ABC 100% 100%
Revenge ABC 100% 100%
Scandal ABC 100% 100%
Suburgatory ABC 95% 100%

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5/10 Update: Happy Endings, Family Tools, How To Live With Your Parents have all been canceled. Body Of Proof and Red Widow have been canceled. Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, The Middle, and Modern Family have been renewed.

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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final ABC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm quite confident in all but the shows predicted in the 40-75% range. If one or two of those go against my prediction I won't be particularly surprised.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Happy Endings (some F) :oops: 0.49
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Red Widow :oops: 0.54
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country* (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Body Of Proof :| :| :| 0.72
Last Man Standing* (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Family Tools :oops: 0.78
The Neighbors* :| :| :| 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How To Live With Your Parents :| :| :| 1.15
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.06

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • ryan

    Either Neighbors or How to Live will be cancelled. My guess is How to Live is cancelled, although both really should be.

    I wouldn’t be shocked to see Malibu Country renewed, but I going to predict cancelled.

    Come on USA, pick up Happy Endings!

  • KJ Styles

    USA will not pick up Happy Endings. They only air dramas on USA, not sitcoms.

    If Happy Endings does get picked up, it will be by TBS. I don’t even see that happening though. The reason Cougar Town got picked up is because ABC owned it and sold it to Turner. ABC doesn’t own Happy Endings so they could care less, as it would make them no money in syndication.

  • Oliver

    @KJ Styles

    USA get the syndication rights to Modern Family from this fall.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I expect BoP to be renewed for one more 13-episode spring season, after which it will be canceled with no chance of syndication renewal since there will be too few episodes in the can (55 as of end of the next season, assuming 13 episodes.)

  • Marc

    Dan

    “I doubt Malibu Country will return even with Reba’s presense. The fact is that the show just lost too much of its LMS lead in and ABC can do better.”

    Malibu had an 85-90% retention, which is better than almost any other lead-out show on ABC. BOP is about 70% following Dancing. Neighbors after Middle was about 70-75% retention. Anything that airs after Modern Family is between 40-55%. Revenge after Once is about 80%. The only duo that stays close that I can think of is Greys/Scandal, maybe Castle after Dancing. So, retention is not a big issue, unless the expectation is 100%.

  • Tony JJ

    @Dan

    Happy endings bombed on Fridays. I’m not sure they can do better. Malibu Country was very compatible with LMS and is produced by ABC Studios so they will probably want to get it into syndication. My bet would be to expand Friday block with LMS at 8 and MC at 9 with KING JOHN in behind LMS and Divorce in there after MC, with neighbors as midseason back up if one fails. But that would also be risky to do because it would need to move Shark Tank, but if they are really risky they could move ST to 10 and hope for a complete TGIF revival and ST ratings staying stable. Very risky but if both King John and Divorce turn out well, they may not have a choice.

  • Frank

    I feel like this site should be called TV By the Number because people seem to only pay attention to one number here.

    There’s no question that the 18-49 demo is one of the most important numbers that networks look at, but there are actually a bunch of other numbers that will be bandied about in an effort to help the networks make decisions. These numbers include the other demo numbers (18-34, 18-54, etc.), production costs, marketing costs, international sales, syndication sale estimates, and many more. Also, the relative importance of some of these numbers is constantly changing. A few years ago, networks paid no attention to how many twitter followers a show or the actors on a show had, but they now consider that free marketing and some number cruncher somewhere is trying to factor that in.

    Anyway, these are just some things that, as an accountant, I’m sure the networks are paying attention to. So when I see people making arguments like “why would such and such network pick up this show when another show has a higher demo rating?” I find those statements/questions pretty uninformed.

    Oh, and this is not specific to ABC. I was thinking this as I browsed through the comments for the other networks too, but I’m just posting here because I read this one last. So if a network cancels your favorite show and picks up a show with lower ratings, don’t accuse the networks of being idiots. They’re just trying to do their best to achieve the one number that does truly matter to them… net profit.

  • Marc

    @tony jj

    That’s how I would go. 2020 isn’t great at 10, and Shark Tank could increase the hour substantially to a 1.8-2.0. If the 2 hr block doesn’t work, shift the two best comedies back to 8-9, ST back to 9, and whatever newsmagazine filler they have at 10.

  • Elijah

    I hope Castle gets to 10 seasons! I hope dancing with the stars tumbles to low 1s in the 18-49 next year while Castle remains steady with low 2s. That oughta silence the retentionistas who used to claim the show should be cancelled because it had bad retention and was lead in dependent.

  • Penny

    Modern Family = Renewed
    The Middle = Renewed
    How to Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) = Renewed
    Malibu Country = = Renewed
    Happy Endings = Cancelled
    Last Man Standing = Renewed
    The Neighbors = Renewed
    Suburgatory = Renewed
    Grey’s Anatomy = Renewed
    Once Upon a Time = Renewed
    Scandal = Renewed
    Castle = Renewed
    Nashville = Renewed
    Revenge = Renewed
    Body of Proof = Cancelled
    Red Widow = Cancelled

  • HV

    Here are my ABC guesses! (Note that I do not believe in giving 0% or 100%)

    Happy Endings 10% (on ABC)
    This show is pretty much dead on ABC. The only way it has a chance of renewal is if ABC pitys it for moving it around so much and gives it seasons 4 and 5 to get to syndication. But, most likely, it will end up on USA or TBS.
    Red Widow 8%
    This show is doing horrible.
    Family Tools 15%
    ABC might feel sorry for it for pemiring it in May. But, it still premired horribly.
    Malibu County 84%
    ABC Fridays ruled November-March. Malibu Country is coming back!
    Body of Proof 65%
    I was doing worse last year and got renewed. Also, it could be ABC’s Rules of Engagement.
    The Neighbors 32%
    This show is fighting a battle with HTLWYP. I think HTLWYP will win, but it may be close.
    HTLWYP 68%
    This show is fighting a battle with The Neighbors. I think it will win, but it may be close.
    Last Man Standing 94%
    ABC Fridays ruled November-March. Last Man Standing performed well on Friday. It will likely stay there, although it may move back to Tuesday, being the only successful comedy there.
    Nashville 88%
    Nashville isn’t doing really great, but it’s been pretty great and it’s ABC’s one new non-failiure drama.
    Castle 96%
    It’s doing really well.
    Grey’s Anatomy 99.5%
    It’s ABC’s top drama.
    The Middle 99%
    Doing a fantastic job starting off ABC’s comedy night.
    Modern Family 99.9%
    This may be pessimistic for ABC’s top show.
    Once Upon a Time 95%
    It’s been dropping, but it’s still staying strong.
    Revenge 88%
    Revenge is headed down a hill, but is still near the top. Will get another two seasons before death.
    Scandal 99%
    There was a week where this practicly new show beat Grey’s Anatomy. It’ll be back!
    Suburgatory 90%
    The show slipped in the 9:30 timeslot, and did not regain its veiwers upon moving back to 8:30. But it still should be renewed. The real test is how it will do off of Wednesday. But it should survive for two more years.

    Biggest Difference: Malibu Country
    You say it has a 40% chance at renewal, while I say 84%. This should be interesting.
    Disagreements: Malibu Country (you say cancel, I say renew), The Neighbors (you say renew, I say cancel).

  • Cj morton

    Renew Malibu Country, or even a network shift!???!?!!

  • Fred

    I’m anxiously awaiting an ABC announcement.
    Nor for season pickups and cancelations, but for the exclusive on the Cleveland Ohio House of Horrors.
    And of course the intimate interview with hero Charles Ramsey the neighbor who saved the missing women.
    Question is ,
    will Diane Sawyer get it and will they air is as a 20/20 special.

  • Fred

    ABC is akin to the greatest ambulance chaser lawyer.
    Can’t really blame them for being so aggressive . The ratings for these exclusives are humongous .

  • Bitter Ringer Fan

    I don’t think ABC will cancel both The Neighbors and Malibu Country, at least one will survive (Crossing fingers for TN). I also believe BOP could cheat death once again…

  • Elijah

    I remember when this site thought Castle was going to be cancelled back in the day. That was back when CSI Miami was on Mondays at 10 pm and would pull over a 4.0 in the 18-49 demo. Good times.

  • sue

    hopefully since things r finally starting to get better on revenge, that next season it will go back to having ratings in the low 2s

  • mam61232

    Red Widow – 0%
    Family Tools – 0%
    Happy Endings – 5%
    How to Live with Your Parents – 40%
    Malibu Country- 45%
    Body of Proof – 50% (Only way it is renewed is due to overseas popularity)
    The Neighbors – 65%
    Nashville – 65%
    Last Man Standing – 75%
    Suburgatory – 95%
    Once Upon a Time – 95%
    Revenge – 100%
    Castle – 100%
    The Middle – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%
    Scandal – 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%

    I just have a gut feeling that Nashville is not safe the shows ratings are not that bad yet not good

  • Nick

    Happy Endings: 1%
    Red Widow: 0%
    Family Tools: 1%
    Malibu Country: 40%
    Body Of Proof: 55%
    The Neighbors: 52%
    How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life): 65%
    Last Man Standing: 90%
    Nashville: 90%
    Castle: 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy: 100%
    The Middle: 100%
    Modern Family : 100%
    Once Upon A Time: 100%
    Revenge: 99%
    Scandal: 100%
    Suburgatory: 99%

    Mine is again pretty similar, except for the Neighbors which I feel is a tossup solely based on how ABC treated it.

  • dgsgss

    I HOPE THEY WILL RENEW MALIBU COUNTRY

    and make new season of LESS THAN PERFECT and ACCORDING TO JIM

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