ABC: Final Predictions For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Nashville,' 'The Neighbors,' 'Malibu Country' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

  Robert Bill
Happy Endings ABC 5% 0%
Red Widow ABC 0% 0%
Family Tools ABC 5% 0%
Malibu Country ABC 45% 40%
Body Of Proof ABC 55% 60%
Neighbors, The ABC 60% 60%
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC 55% 75%
Last Man Standing ABC 95% 90%
Nashville ABC 99% 90%
Castle ABC 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy ABC 100% 100%
Middle, The ABC 100% 100%
Modern Family ABC 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time ABC 100% 100%
Revenge ABC 100% 100%
Scandal ABC 100% 100%
Suburgatory ABC 95% 100%

-
5/10 Update: Happy Endings, Family Tools, How To Live With Your Parents have all been canceled. Body Of Proof and Red Widow have been canceled. Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, The Middle, and Modern Family have been renewed.

-
In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final ABC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm quite confident in all but the shows predicted in the 40-75% range. If one or two of those go against my prediction I won't be particularly surprised.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
-
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Happy Endings (some F) :oops: 0.49
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Red Widow :oops: 0.54
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country* (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Body Of Proof :| :| :| 0.72
Last Man Standing* (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Family Tools :oops: 0.78
The Neighbors* :| :| :| 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How To Live With Your Parents :| :| :| 1.15
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.06

-
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Ben

    My schedule: Big changes needed to move into 1st place

    Sunday

    7:00 Dancing with the Stars
    9:00 Castle
    10:00 Nashville

    Monday

    8:00 DWS Results
    9:00 Body of Proof
    10:00 Manhattan Mystery

    Tuesday

    8:00 How to Live with Your Parents
    8:30 Neighbors
    9:00 Suburgatory
    9:30 Super Fun Night
    10:00 Grey’s Anatomy

    Wednesday

    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Malibu Country
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 James Caan Sitcom
    10:00 Revenge

    Thursday

    8:00 SHIELD
    9:00 Once upon a Time
    10:00 Scandal

    Friday

    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 King John
    9:00 Shark Tank
    10:00 20/20

  • Rollie Dethloff

    Final 2013-2014

    Sunday
    7:00 AFV
    8:00 SHIELD
    9:00 Revenge
    10:00 Nashville

    Monday
    8:00 DWTS
    10:00 Castle

    Tuesday
    8:00 Once Upon A Time
    9:00 Lucky 7
    10:00 Body Of Proof

    Wednesday
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Trophy Wife
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 The Neighbors
    10:00 Venice

    Thursday
    8:00 Shark Tank
    9:00 Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 Scandal

    Friday
    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu Country
    9:00 King John
    9:30 Divorce
    10:00 20/20

    Cancelled: Red Widow, Suburgatory, and Happy Endings
    Midseason: Splash, Wife Swap, How To Live, Family Tools, Bad Management, Once Wonderland, new drama

  • Dan

    @Marc – The difference is Last Man Standing averaged a 1.5 then declined for a 1.1 for Malibu Country, and then up to a 1.9 for Shark Tank, the fact is, thats not good enough retention to warrant a renewal even when ABC figures they could do better with a new show.

    Revenge retains 85% of Once Upon a Time but its not like the numbers go back up for any 10pm show the numbers go down from 8-11 so Revenge’s numbers are acceptable. MC’s arent because its within a half hour and it shows that numbers go down between 8:30-9 because people arent watching Malibu Country.

    @Tony JJ – Happy Endings numbers are irrelevant to Malibu Country’s chances at renewal. HE was just a burnoff and will hopefully be picked up by USA. MC needs 3+ seasons for syndication so any syndication needs for a first year show is not happening.

    Also I doubt ABC would want a 2 hour Friday comedy block but anything is possible. Maybe they should move Shark Tank to Tuesdays at 8 and air 2 hour comedy on Friday.

    @KJ Styles – USA mentioned that along with getting the Modern Family rerun rights they want a new comedy to pair with it and Happy Endings would work both as original programming and for syndication purposes. Kind of like how TBS paired Big Bang repeats with Cougar Town originals.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @Cass
    “Given the steep drops in ratings year by year, they might prefer to go with a show that’s cheap due to some kind of tax break and is a known quantity as schedule spackle in the event of new shows going kaput next fall than more pricey, less reliable shows.”

    I believe BOP is merely eligible for a third year tax benefit. It is not automatic and will not be announced until June.

  • James

    Due to the limited time slots for sitcoms, I guess only one new sitcom will be launched on Wednesday after Modern Family. The Neighbors will move to Friday.

    How To Live With Your Parents is like Apt 23 last season. Very likely its time slot will be replaced by new sitcoms, and it’ll collapse in ratings when it’s moved away from MF.

    Family Tools must be cancelled due to the lack of time slots.

    I guess Suburgatory will stay on Wednesday 8:30pm. ABC don’t want it to be another Happy Endings and protect it for one more season.

  • snoot

    Renew the neighbors and last man standing!!!

  • Bill

    @Cj Morton:

    Malibu Country is in a really tough spot, urghhh. First and foremost, there was an article recently on Deadline saying they’ll need a new show runner if they get renewed. Also, the head people at the network weren’t too thrilled with the direction they wanted to go in next season. I hope somehow those issues have been resolved, but if they haven’t I doubt the show will be back. :(

    Your suggestion of another network saving it in the event of cancellation is interesting! But who would save it? It was a cut throat pilot season at CBS so I doubt they’d have any extra room, not to mention its not really a CBS compatible show. CBS’ multi cams seem to be just a bit more mature and perhaps edgier. If this were the ’97-’98 season where they tried their “CBS Friday Night Block Party” block, I’d say it would definitely fit well there but it’s 15 years later.

    Best hope for Malibu right now was suggested up thread-renew, but for just 13 or so episodes and see what happens. Back 9 depends on how well it does.

    I wanna see ABC expand the Friday Night block over the next few years, we will see if they do it.

    Not at all worried on Last Man Standing. More than earned a renewal I think. If it somehow dies, ill be super shocked and my mouth will drop open. Ill be dumbfounded. But I think it’s 95 percent sure to be renewed. Just leaving 5 percent legroom there to be realistic. :)

  • Bill

    Wasn’t done yet ugh! MC isn’t really Fox material. If NBC were smart they would grab it and at least get a consistent performer. Perhaps it would work at the CW, I know they’re looking into more comedies and wanting some multi cams so Reba would be going home so to speak in that case. :)

  • scifi

    OUAT is not 100%.

  • harry

    Why everyone thinks nashville will be renewed? The show is terrible ratings wise.and body of proof does the same. And is on 3rd season.

  • Ultima

    @harry
    Why everyone thinks nashville will be renewed? The show is terrible ratings wise.and body of proof does the same.

    Nonsense. Body of Proof is averaging a 1.4 rating; since BoP returned, Nashville is averaging a 1.7 rating.

    Maybe if looked at more than the one week in which BoP did better than Nashville, you would see what everybody else does.

  • Ultima

    @scifi
    OUAT is not 100%.

    :roll:

  • Eren

    ABC should do this:
    Monday:
    08.00pm The Bachelor / Dancing with the Stars
    10.00pm Castle (24 episodes)

    Tuesday:
    08.00pm The Bachelor / Dancing with the Stars
    09.00pm S.H.I.E.L.D. (22 episodes)
    10.00pm Big Thunder (22 episodes)

    Wednesday:
    08.00pm The Middle (24 episodes)
    08.30pm Mixology (24 episodes)
    09.00pm Modern Family (24 episodes)
    09.30pm Super Fun Night (24 episodes)
    10.00pm Killer Women (22 episodes)

    Thursday:
    08.00pm Revenge (24 episodes)
    09.00pm Grey’s Anatomy (24 episodes)
    10.00pm Scandal (24 episodes)

    Friday:
    08.00pm Suburgatory (18 episodes)
    08.30pm Last Man Standing (18 episodes)
    09.00pm Shark Tank / Primetime
    10.00pm 20/20

    Sunday:
    07.00pm America’s Funniest Home Videos
    08.00pm Once Upon a Time (22 episodes)
    09.00pm Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (22 episodes)
    10.00pm Westside (22 episodes)

    Midseason/Summer:
    Influence (13 episodes)
    Nashville (13 episodes)
    Body of Proof (13 episodes)
    How to Live with Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) (13 episodes)
    The Neighbors (13 episodes)
    20/20

  • Rebecca

    I root for The Neighbors, HE, The Middle, MF, HTL, LMS and OUAT. I’ll understand if HE does not return. Good luck to all the fans of all the shows.

  • Brandy

    All I want renewed are OUAT & Nashville, glad to see they’re both certain to come back

  • Marc

    @Dan

    Incorrect. Malibu Country did not average a 1.1 vs a 1.5 for LMS. It hit 1.1 a few times out of 18 airings (never below), but the average was closer to 1.4. LMS was 1.6. It was almost always .2 behind LMS in the ratings.

    And the MC drop is still much better than the mid-hour drops ABC gets from 8 to 8:30 and then from 9 to 9:30. Malibu usually drops 10-15%. But whatever airs after The Middle drops between 20-30% and whatever airs behind Modern Family drops around 50%. When Happy Endings and Apt 23 were airing together, the drops were about 30% between half hours.

    Honestly, I don’t see a sitcom that has BETTER retention than Malibu Country on any network. NBC Thursdays has big drops around Office and Parks. CBS Thursdays has huge drops from TBBT to 2.5 Men. About a 35% drop from New Girl to Mindy on Fox. CBS Mondays has about a 30% following HIMYM and 2BG. So again, what would MC have to hold? (Maybe your argument is based on you believing that MC average a 30% drop from 1.5 avg to a 1.1 avg, which isn;t the case).

  • Damion

    For the love of COD, why would any network cancel one of the few truly great comedies on television….RENEW HAPPY ENDINGS. Then again, ABC thought “Family Tools” was worth broadcast when the show should have been nixed in development.

  • Mary Sims

    @Marc-ditto for your comments on Malibu Country. If ABC would do a few quick commercials for this show and try to help with promoting it, I think it would be a success for ABC. After all, it helped ABC ratings on Friday night and after the first show, ABC did nothing to help the show obtain viewers and it still hung in there.

  • Fred

    So much love for Happy Endings.
    Too bad so few watch it.

  • Connor Murdock

    Ok so here is what I think ABC should do:

    Monday:
    8:00 – Shark Tank
    9:00 – BETRAYAL (New Show) Followup: Body of Proof
    10PM – Castle

    Tuesday:
    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – Middle Age Rage (New)
    9:00 – Suburgatory
    9:30 – The Neighbors
    10PM – Trophy Wife (New)

    Wednesday:
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – Keep Calm and Karey On (New)
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – How the Hell am I Normal? (New)
    10PM – Grey’s Anatomy

    Thursday:
    8-10PM – Dancing with the Stars
    10PM – Scnadal

    Friday:
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars: Results
    9:00 – Primetime
    10PM – 20/20

    Saturday:
    Football/Movies

    Sunday:
    7:00 – America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – S.H.I.E.L.D. (New)
    10PM – Revenge

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures