ABC: Final Predictions For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Nashville,' 'The Neighbors,' 'Malibu Country' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

  Robert Bill
Happy Endings ABC 5% 0%
Red Widow ABC 0% 0%
Family Tools ABC 5% 0%
Malibu Country ABC 45% 40%
Body Of Proof ABC 55% 60%
Neighbors, The ABC 60% 60%
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC 55% 75%
Last Man Standing ABC 95% 90%
Nashville ABC 99% 90%
Castle ABC 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy ABC 100% 100%
Middle, The ABC 100% 100%
Modern Family ABC 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time ABC 100% 100%
Revenge ABC 100% 100%
Scandal ABC 100% 100%
Suburgatory ABC 95% 100%

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5/10 Update: Happy Endings, Family Tools, How To Live With Your Parents have all been canceled. Body Of Proof and Red Widow have been canceled. Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, The Middle, and Modern Family have been renewed.

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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final ABC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm quite confident in all but the shows predicted in the 40-75% range. If one or two of those go against my prediction I won't be particularly surprised.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Happy Endings (some F) :oops: 0.49
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Red Widow :oops: 0.54
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country* (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Body Of Proof :| :| :| 0.72
Last Man Standing* (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Family Tools :oops: 0.78
The Neighbors* :| :| :| 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How To Live With Your Parents :| :| :| 1.15
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.06

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Robb7

    WOW, I guess I’m the only one rooting for Red Widow. Didn’t think it had a chance, but was hoping people would tune in.

  • omabin

    @Bill Gorman,

    Just out of curiosity: HE had a 13 eps season 1. Had it been 22 eps would you have it as 100%, as you have Nikita? Thanks

  • Charlotte

    PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don’t get rid of BODY OF PROOF. NCIS and BODY OF PROOF are the two best dramas on TV! I love this show and watch it EVERY week!!!!!! I will cry if it is cancelled :(

  • Brooklyn

    Whoa…. why in the world would body of proof get cancelled?! It is the BEST show on television! I am a huge fan and watch it EVERY Tuesday! PLEASE renew this AMAZING show!

  • Lee

    I hope Nashville gets renewed. It sure has been fun seeing all the stars around town.

  • Tom

    “Malibu Country” deserves a second season. Reba is awesome, and it is nice to be able to watch her on Friday nights again.

  • Charmed

    Will they even announce early renewals this late? It’s only 6 days until upfronts.

  • Ultima

    @Charmed
    Will they even announce early renewals this late?

    I wouldn’t call any renewal at this point “early.”

    Latest buzz on Deadline is that ABC is considering renewing Castle for two seasons. Be happy, Castle fans!

  • Matthew Chapman

    And in the same article about Castle on Deadline, ABC is also considering renewing Greys Anatomy, Scandal, Modern Family, The Middle, Once Upon a Time and Revenge.

  • Charmed

    Really worried about Nashville, it wasnt mentioned in the Castle article on Deadline.

  • Ultima

    @Charmed
    Really worried about Nashville, it wasnt mentioned in the Castle article on Deadline.

    I think that list was basically just “certain to be renewed” shows. They’re obviously renewing a lot more than that.

  • Ollie

    I will honestly be gutted if Nashville is not renewed. I vow to stop watching ABC all together if they do

  • Kate

    I’m SOOOOOO excited to hear that ABC is possibly renewing Castle for two seasons! This news just made my day. There isn’t a show I enjoy more, and it’s been a bit stressful over the years watching the ratings. A year to just watch and enjoy without even thinking about the ratings sounds amazing to me! I can’t wait to find out if it really happens. Come on ABC- get going already!!!

  • Theoacme

    @Marc: ABC went to season with 8 single cams (I believe), 7 not counting Family Tools because… why did they bring us this anyways?

    Because karma wanted to diss J.K. Simmons, for Chief Will Pope screwing over Deputy Chief Brenda Leigh Johnson and Captain Sharon Raydor?

    Or because karma was affected by Telly Savalas, his spirit wanting all bald-headed actors to fail randomly, and Simmons’ number was up (re: Michael Chiklis, on Vegas AND that ABC superhero show whose name I forgot even faster than the show itself)?

  • sootfoot5

    Renew “The Neighbors” – love that quirky show!

  • SteveO

    My final prediction for ABC 2013-2014

    Sunday
    7pm AFHV
    8pm Once Upon a Time/Spinoff – Spring
    9pm Revenge
    10pm Nashville

    Monday
    8pm The Bachelor/Castle – Fall
    8pm Dancing/Castle – Spring

    Tuesday
    8pm The Middle
    8:30pm Back in the Game
    9pm The Goldbergs
    9:30pm Bad Management
    10pm Gothica/Body of Proof

    Dancing Results 9pm Spring

    Wednesday
    8pm Suburgatory
    8:30pm The Neighbors
    9pm Modern Family
    9:30pm How to Live with your Parents
    10pm The Returned

    Thursday
    8pm SHIELD
    9pm Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm Scandal

    Friday
    8pm Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu Country/King John – Spring
    9pm Shark Tank
    10pm 20/20

    Again, if I were ABC I would program SHIELD on Tuesday at 9pm, but I have a feeling they will go with Thursday at 8pm. Only 2 moves – The Middle and Nashville. Comments, please!!

  • veggie mama

    NASHVILLE is one of the best shows on TV! PLEASE RENEW NASHVILLE!!!!!

  • Chitwood

    so I would like networks to fix my sched. Conflicts

    day and time can make or break new show
    MON
    @9pm
    90210 CW
    @10pm
    revolution nbc/hawaii five o cbs/TeenMom mtv
    TUES
    @8pm
    NCIS cbs/pretty little liars abc fam
    @9pm
    NCIS LA cbs/the lying game abc fam
    WED
    @8pm
    survivor cbs
    @10pm
    nashville abc
    THUR
    @9pm
    greys anatomy abc
    @10pm
    scandal abc
    FRI
    @10pm
    blue bloods cbs
    SUN
    @9pm
    revenge abc/the good wife cbs

  • Theoacme

    @SteveO: Wednesday is a strong night of comedy for ABC, and Tuesday is not. Why move The Middle to Tuesday, when it is the second best comedy on ABC on Wednesdays, and will very likely not do better on Tuesdays?

    Plus Suburgatory has not any proven ability to lead off from local affiliate/O&O lead-in (in fact, it’s dangerously close to spackle bait as it is).

    If none of the ABC pilots can lead off Tuesdays, then they’re worse off than they should be. I would try Suburgatory on lead off duty on Tuesday, rather than Wednesday.

    Actually, I don’t think ABC will be able to have a two hour Tuesday comedy block, since The Neighbors and How To Live aren’t in great shape ratings-wise either, and at least one of the three Tuesday comedies you have will be needed on Wednesday, imo.

    Nashville, I can’t argue with you on that; someone else might.

  • Pamela

    Why do we still let the Neilson ratings rule our lives? And why do viewers stop counting when they turn 50? People over 49 watch tv and commercials, and we have money and we buy stuff. So why does no care what we watch?

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