ABC: Final Predictions For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Nashville,' 'The Neighbors,' 'Malibu Country' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

  Robert Bill
Happy Endings ABC 5% 0%
Red Widow ABC 0% 0%
Family Tools ABC 5% 0%
Malibu Country ABC 45% 40%
Body Of Proof ABC 55% 60%
Neighbors, The ABC 60% 60%
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC 55% 75%
Last Man Standing ABC 95% 90%
Nashville ABC 99% 90%
Castle ABC 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy ABC 100% 100%
Middle, The ABC 100% 100%
Modern Family ABC 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time ABC 100% 100%
Revenge ABC 100% 100%
Scandal ABC 100% 100%
Suburgatory ABC 95% 100%

-
5/10 Update: Happy Endings, Family Tools, How To Live With Your Parents have all been canceled. Body Of Proof and Red Widow have been canceled. Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, The Middle, and Modern Family have been renewed.

-
In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final ABC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm quite confident in all but the shows predicted in the 40-75% range. If one or two of those go against my prediction I won't be particularly surprised.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
-
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Happy Endings (some F) :oops: 0.49
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Red Widow :oops: 0.54
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country* (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Body Of Proof :| :| :| 0.72
Last Man Standing* (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Family Tools :oops: 0.78
The Neighbors* :| :| :| 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How To Live With Your Parents :| :| :| 1.15
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.06

-
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Ultima

    @Pamela
    Why do we still let the Neilson ratings rule our lives?

    Sounds like a personal problem. I watch TV that entertains me and follow ratings as a hobby. I assume many here do the same.

    Why do the networks use Nielsen ratings? Because they need advertising revenue to subsidized the production of their programming and Nielsen ratings are the primary metric for pricing ad time.

    And why do viewers stop counting when they turn 50? People over 49 watch tv and commercials, and we have money and we buy stuff. So why does no care what we watch?

    It’s simple supply and demand. Younger viewers are harder to reach, so their eyeballs and earballs are worth more.

  • Ultima

    The comedy pilots “Spy” and “Keep Kalm and Karey On” are dead.

  • Chelle

    Nashville Renewing is a MUST!!!!!!!

  • Nick

    Why do we still let the Neilson ratings rule our lives?

    Yay! Conspiracy theorists are my favorite kind of crazy fan. ;-)

    Oh, the joys of upfront season.

  • Marc

    With King John out (despite apparently false rumors of it being good to go) this likely means a MC renewal. I can’t imagine they’d risk the slot by either putting single cam -low viewers Neighbors behind LMS or drop star-free Divorce and hope it can match the 85-90% retention rate of MC.

  • Judy912

    ‘CASTLE’ getting a possible 2 season renewal? Color me HAPPY!!! That would be the best news ever. I hope they keep it at the same day and time slot as well. Why fix what’s not broken? I am beside myself, I am so excited….ABC, please make your announcements for next season as soon as possible with that 2 season renewal. I can hardly contain myself!! WAY TO GO CASTLE

  • SteveO

    Updated final schedule prediction due to latest news

    Sunday
    7pm AFHV
    8pm Once Upon a Time/Spinoff
    9pm Revenge
    10pm Nashville

    Monday
    8pm The Bachelor
    10pm Castle

    Spring
    8pm Dancing with the Stars
    10pm Castle

    Tuesday
    8pm Shark Tank
    9pm Agents of Shield
    10pm Influence/Body Of Proof

    Wednesday
    8pm The Middle
    8:30pm The Goldbergs
    9pm Modern Family
    9:39 How to Live
    10pm New Drama

    Thursday
    8pm Super Fun Night
    8:30pm Suburgatory
    9pm Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm Scandal

    Friday
    8pm Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu Country
    9pm Back in the Game
    9:30pm The Neighbors
    10pm 20/20

  • Charmed

    Still no renewals yet? They certainly aren’t in a hurry. Does anyone know when they will announce renewals?

  • Kate

    Abc is killing me! Announce something already!!!!!!!

  • Matthew Chapman

    @Kate-The suspense is Over

    Nashville has been renewed.

  • Matthew Chapman

    As Per Tv Line, Greys Anatomy, Scandal, and Castle have all been renewed.

  • chris

    according to jai rodriguez malibu was canceled

  • Matthew Chapman

    Body of Proof, Happy Endings Maulibu Country and Red Widow have been cancelled With everything else Baring How To Live With Your Parents and Family Tools renewed

  • Bette

    Of the shows left hanging the only one I care about is Body of Proof. I tried to watch Family Tools. I lasted 10 minutes and the of that the last five my remote finger was twitching. I really wanted to like it, but it was torture.

  • LLL

    By canceling a lot of these shows I’ll be able to get more sleep.

  • Christian

    Body Of Proof continues to be treated poorly by netwrok execs and for them the show is in jeopardy? try not airign it when they feel liek it, moving it about time slots and give it a consistent slot and full schedule….

  • Jim Mears

    I can’t make any predictions, but I stopped watching Body of Proof because the writing has changes so much from last year. It was a basic whodunnit with a smart medical examiner solving the crimes. Now I don’t know what the heck it is, but it went to a favorite program to puke.

  • Jon Snow

    The Neighbors is best suited on Friday night…return TGIF!!!

  • Maryanne

    I enjoyed Body of Proof last year..but this year the main character looks like she had her face lifted. Can’t look at her or Leslie Stall on 60 mins

  • susan

    The shows that have been cancelled should go to cable where we have more than 2 brain cells. Malibu Country???? Really?!!!

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures