CBS: Final Predictions For 'Vegas,' 'CSI:NY,' 'Rules Of Engagement' & 'Golden Boy'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
CSI: NY CBS 10% 0%
Golden Boy CBS 0% 0%
Vegas CBS 0% 0%
Rules of Engagement CBS 30% 25%
Criminal Minds CBS 100%** 100%**

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5/9 Update: Criminal Minds has been renewed.

5/10 Update: CSI:NY has been canceled. Vegas has been canceled. Rules of Engagement has been canceled. Golden Boy has been canceled.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CBS predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

**We'd both like to note that our predictions for Criminal Minds are based only on the ratings. The cancellation of the show is conceivably possible if terms cannot be reached with the cast, but we don't attempt to predict that likelihood.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :oops: 0.50
Vegas (some F) :oops: 0.51
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.55
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.57
The Good Wife* renewed 0.62
The Mentalist renewed 0.66
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.82
CSI renewed 0.86
Elementary renewed 0.88
Rules of Engagement :cry: :cry: 0.93
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.09
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly renewed 1.11
Person Of Interest renewed 1.14
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.31
Two and a Half Men** renewed 1.47
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.13

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Austin

    i’m going to be sad when csi ny gets cancelled

  • TheFrenchGuy

    Renewed: CSI: NY and Criminal Minds.
    Canceled: Rules of Engagement, Vegas and Golden Boy.

    I think Robert forgot a 0 for CSI: NY. I’m more worried for Bill because he forgot a 1 and a 0 :)

  • frodo

    Vegas, Golden Boy and CSI NY will be canceled, I think Rules will be picked up for its last season.

  • SJ

    CBS is kinda boring:

    Rules of Engagement – 0%
    CSI: NY – 0%
    Golden Boy – 0%
    Vegas – 0%
    Criminal Minds – 100%

  • Ultima

    No chance that Rules of Engagement is renewed.

    I think they’ll end up renewing Criminal Minds, but if they don’t, CSI: New York might be the beneficiary. Golden Boy and Vegas are certain to be canceled.

  • Dan

    @SJ – Completely agreed. Not sure where that 10% for CSI NY came from from Robert but there is no room for CBS

    Renewed: Criminal Minds

    Cancelled: CSI NY, Golden Boy, Vegas, Rules of Engagement

    Anything different by CBS would surprise me.

  • gerry

    yeah, once they announce most of their pickups, the rest is kinda blah for the season. i guess criminal minds is simply hammering out the contractual? -g

  • Dan

    @Ultima – Criminal Minds will be renewed as long as Thomas Gibson and Joe Mantegna are signed on. Rules has more of a chance to return than CSI NY which has absolutely zero chance.

  • MichaelChickless

    A shocking renewal for CSI: New York!

    A no-brainer renewal for Criminal Minds.

    The rest, relegated to history.

  • Billy

    CBS does not need Rules of Engagement as a bench player next season. The Big Bang Theory repeats do better, and will be CBS’s bench player should things go wrong for comedy next season.

  • rob60990

    Monday
    8:00- How I Met Your Mother
    8:30- 2 Broke Girs (NEW TIME)
    9:00- Crazy Ones (NEW COMEDY)
    9:30- Ex Men (NEW COMEDY)
    10:00- Beverly Hills Cop (NEW DRAMA)

    Tuesday
    8:00- NCIS
    9:00- Person of Interest (NEW NIGHT) yes you’re reading this right lol.
    10:00- Hostages (NEW DRAMA)

    Wednesday
    8:00- Survivor
    9:00- Criminal Minds
    10:00- CSI

    Thursday
    8:00- The Big Bang Theory
    8:30- Mom (NEW COMEDY)
    9:00- Two & a Half Men (NEW TIME)
    9:30- Mike & Molly (NEW NIGHT)
    10:00- Elementary

    Friday
    8:00- The Good Wife (NEW NIGHT & TIME)
    9:00- Hawaii 5-0 (NEW NIGHT & TIME)
    10:00- Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    7:00- 60 Minutes
    8:00- Amazing Race
    9:00- NCIS:LA (NEW NIGHT)
    10:00- The Mentalist

    Midseason: Intelligence, NCIS: Red, The McCarthys, Super Clyde, Friends with Better Lives, Undercover Boss

  • Mon

    Has a show been cancelled before because of negotiations gone horribly wrong? I can’t imagine it happening to Criminal Minds since I think CBS will still renew it even if they can’t reach a deal with AJ Cook and Kirsten Vanganess. Though I can see a total collapse in the ratings about low 2s if this happens. I hope these actresses get the salary they deserve after 8 seasons(!).

  • Anon

    I can’t believe either of you found a pulse in RoE. You could just smell “closure” all over last night’s episode (and presumably all over “100” as well).

  • Mellw2lls

    “Vegas” is the most original show on CBS….need I say more. Every other show has been done again and again…

  • Wright

    Renew CM!!! Why the hell is it taking so long?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Has a show been cancelled before because of negotiations gone horribly wrong?”

    It’s not something that we can easily track, since we don’t listen to the nonsense coming out of Hollywood, but it could be argued that Brothers & Sisters could have had another season were the reports about cast salary negotiations coming apart true.

  • PurpleDrazi

    @Wright
    “Renew CM!!! Why the hell is it taking so long?”

    See Ultima’s comments above yours. The two female cast members are holding out and demanding that they get paid as much as the men do. Not to mention, Shemar Moore has yet to sign a deal either and reports this morning say there is still a big gap between CBS/ABC offer and what Moore is asking for.

    I still think the show is coming back no matter what however, negotiations have taken a nasty turn all of the sudden and I’m not sure all of the current actors will return next season. Ratings were going to go down anyway but if they lose some of the cast I predict they will go down a lot more.

  • Dan

    @Anon – Agreed, the last 3 episodes of Rules (Timmy Quits, A Wee Problem, and 100th) have been written to close the series. Its all done, so with a proper finale and 100 episodes and syndication deals, Rules of Engagement’s purpose is fulfilled and it is finally free to enter TV heaven. (And the actors are free to pursue other pilots)

    And if anyone is interested in similarities to last season

    NYC 22 = Golden Boy
    CSI Miami = CSI NY
    Unforgettable = Vegas

    So no bloodbath this year, just a veteran and 2 freshman dramas gone.

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    Criminal Minds will be renewed as long as Thomas Gibson and Joe Mantegna are signed on. Rules has more of a chance to return than CSI NY which has absolutely zero chance.

    I disagree. CBS is solid on comedy pilots, there’s no chance that Rules will be renewed.

    On the other hand, if the negotiations for Criminal Minds fall through (we should find out today), then there is a chance that CSI:NY gets picked up to fill the hole. I don’t think they need to renew another drama if they can’t get CM back, but if they do, it would certainly be CSI:NY.

  • PurpleDrazi

    Oops! I ment Mon’s comment above.

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