CBS: Final Predictions For 'Vegas,' 'CSI:NY,' 'Rules Of Engagement' & 'Golden Boy'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
CSI: NY CBS 10% 0%
Golden Boy CBS 0% 0%
Vegas CBS 0% 0%
Rules of Engagement CBS 30% 25%
Criminal Minds CBS 100%** 100%**

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5/9 Update: Criminal Minds has been renewed.

5/10 Update: CSI:NY has been canceled. Vegas has been canceled. Rules of Engagement has been canceled. Golden Boy has been canceled.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CBS predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

**We'd both like to note that our predictions for Criminal Minds are based only on the ratings. The cancellation of the show is conceivably possible if terms cannot be reached with the cast, but we don't attempt to predict that likelihood.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :oops: 0.50
Vegas (some F) :oops: 0.51
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.55
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.57
The Good Wife* renewed 0.62
The Mentalist renewed 0.66
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.82
CSI renewed 0.86
Elementary renewed 0.88
Rules of Engagement :cry: :cry: 0.93
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.09
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly renewed 1.11
Person Of Interest renewed 1.14
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.31
Two and a Half Men** renewed 1.47
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.13

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Ultima

    @Wright
    Renew CM!!! Why the hell is it taking so long?

    The cast and ABC/CBS have been very far apart in contract negotiations. They only locked in the showrunner last week. The show will be a go if Gibson and Mantegna sign, but probably dead if not – the final offer is apparently on the table.

  • Petar Ivanov

    I am here again.(adter big holiday in may contry)

    @Tuesday
    8:00- NCIS
    9:00- Person of Interest (NEW NIGHT) yes you’re reading this right lol.

    I like it but ncis la is DEAD without NCIS lead. I think PoI will stay at its slot – to big and good to move or will take wednesday 8-9pm slot.

  • Carmen

    This is just semantics, but I would rate CSI:NY as higher than the percentages of 0% and 10%.
    To hear this site speak of it since its final episode you would think that there is a greater chance that “How to Become a Gentleman” will be resurrected than NY being given another year.

    Yes, I think that the site is right and that it will be cancelled, but I bet it was not nearly as clear cut as has been depicted in these blogs.

    As I said, Semantics.

  • Ultima

    @Petar
    8:00- NCIS
    9:00- Person of Interest (NEW NIGHT) yes you’re reading this right lol.

    Wow! You’ve finally given up on the Person of Interest Tuesday 8pm stuff? ;)

  • Pavelsauce

    I agree with the predictions. I hope CM comes back, because it’s a good show, and my sister loves it. I won’t be sad to see RoE. I like it, but I won’t be crying over its demise. As for the others on the list, I haven’t seen any of them, so I won’t miss them either.

  • Pavelsauce

    I meant that I won’t be sad to see RoE go.

  • lll

    Person of Interest isn’t moving to a new night. If anything they will shift to the hour after the two-hour comedy block on Thursday. Elementary will move because they were overhyped (super bowl, person of interset pairing and the soon-to-be two hour finale) and the ratings don’t match their expectations. I’m guessing mondays, tuesdays or wednesdays.

  • Dan

    @Ultima – I disagree, after renewing Mentalist and Good Wife, CBS has more dramas than it can handle, even with UB airing at midseason. They will have 3 new dramas in the fall which means that with Criminal Minds renewal, there’s simply no room for CSI NY. It was barely renewed in May 2011 and CBS chose Miami to cancel last May. This year CSI NY is the networks veteran drama cancellation without a doubt.

    Even if Criminal Minds negotiations fell through (which they wont), CBS doesnt need CSI NY to fill the hole as they have more than enough dramas to fill said hole, especially with a possible comedy expansion.

    I agree Rules has no chance to return but CSI NY has even less of a chance.

  • ProViewerShipNumbers

    CBS Sunday: 2013-2014

    7- 60 Minutes (12 million)
    8- Half A Heart 19 episodes (10.5 million)
    9- The Mentalist (final season); 16 episodes (9.9 million) | Untitled NCIS: Los Angeles Spin-Off; 17 episodes (11.4 million)
    10- Blue Bloods; 26 episodes (10.9 million)
    10:58- The Crazy Ones; 19 episodes (6.3 million)
    11:30- The Buddy System; 17 episodes (5.1 million)
    11:58- Half A Heart (repeat; begins at 11:58pm; 1.1 million)
    1- 60 Minutes (repeat; 390,000)
    2- The Crazy Ones (repeat; 280,000)
    2:30- Blue Bloods (repeat; 150,000)
    3:30- Up To The Minute

    June-September
    7- 60 Minutes
    8- The Town
    9- Parable of The Sower
    10- Untitled NCIS: Los Angeles Spin-Off
    10:58- The Crazy Ones
    11:30- The Buddy System
    11:58 – Blue Bloods
    1- Parable of The Sower (repeat)
    2- Half A Heart
    3- The Crazy Ones

  • Max Vrany

    If Criminal Minds’ issues don’t get worked out (and I think they will be resolved in the end), I think CBS will move Elementary (more likely) or Person of Interest (less likely) to Criminal Minds’ Wednesday slot, put the remaining Thursday drama at 10PM and expand their sitcom time to Thursdays at 9PM. Makes more sense than renewing a low rated drama.

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    They will have 3 new dramas in the fall which means that with Criminal Minds renewal, there’s simply no room for CSI NY.

    Criminal Minds being canceled is a precondition for a CSI:NY renewal. I never said otherwise.

    Even if Criminal Minds negotiations fell through (which they wont), CBS doesnt need CSI NY to fill the hole

    I said that as well. However, if they do decide that they want ten returning dramas, CSI:NY would definitely be renewed ahead of Golden Boy or Vegas.

    Again, I think that Criminal Minds will be renewed. In the event that it doesn’t, CSI:NY might benefit. Depends on what CBS’ contingency plans are.

    I agree Rules has no chance to return but CSI NY has even less of a chance.

    Are you suggesting that CSI NY’s chance of renewal is less than 0%? ;)

  • Ultima

    @Max Vrany
    If Criminal Minds’ issues don’t get worked out (and I think they will be resolved in the end), I think CBS will move Elementary (more likely) or Person of Interest (less likely) to Criminal Minds’ Wednesday slot, put the remaining Thursday drama at 10PM and expand their sitcom time to Thursdays at 9PM. Makes more sense than renewing a low rated drama.

    That assumes that CBS would only expand their comedies if negotiations for Criminal Minds fell thorugh.

    That’s ridiculous.

  • smr223

    While I completely understand Vegas being cancelled, it does make me a little sad. Perhaps, maybe…..maybe….a summer renewal?

  • ProViewerShipNumbers

    CBS Monday: 2013-2014

    8- How I Met Your Mother (final season; 13 episodes)| Girlfriend Season (19 episodes)
    8:30- Friends With Better Lives | 26 episodes
    9- Mike & Molly | 26 episodes
    9:30- Two And A Half Men (final season; 15 epsiodes) | Oh F–k, It’s You (15 episodes)
    10- Criminal Minds (final season; 29 episodes)

    The Late Show with David Letterman (begins at 11:37pm)
    The Late Late Show (begins at 12:40pm)
    Friends With Better Lives (repeat; begins at 1:40am; 790,000)
    Mike & Molly (repeat; begins at 2:10am; 770,000)
    The Crazy Ones]] (repeat; begins at 2:40am; 320,000)
    Up To The Minute (begins at 3:08)

  • Tom Shaw

    Golden Boy 0%
    Vegas 0%
    CSI: NY 15% (If CBS hates their pilots and CM has issues and CBS hates UB in Fall, it does have syndicated backend.)
    Rules of Engage 20% (If CBS expands to 4 hours and needs insurance and doesn’t want to air a repeat until a January launch of new shows.)
    Criminal Minds 95% (The show comes back. I have no clue how much of the cast returns.)

  • ProViewerShipNumbers

    CBS 2013-2014| MONDAY | JUNE – SEPTEMBER

    8- Girlfriend Season
    8:30- Friends With Better Lives
    9- Mike & Molly
    9:30- Under The Dome
    10:30- Oh F–k, It’s You

    The Late Show with David Letterman (begins at 11:37pm)
    The Late Late Show (begins at 12:40pm)
    Friends With Better Lives (begins at 1:40am)
    Mike & Molly (begins at 2:10am)
    The Crazy Ones (begins at 2:40am)
    Up To The Minute (begins at 3:08am)

  • CrimTV

    @ProViewerShipNumbers

    What the?!

  • Jonay

    Robert made a point about a schedule Spackle could Rules Of Engagement be a schedule Spackle because every year a fall comedy on CBS fails???

    2010- $#*! My Dad says

    2011- How To Be A Gentleman

    2012- Partners

  • Dan

    @Ultima – I’m suggesting that personally I believe that CSI NY has 0 chance of returning and less is possible. But its not an either or situation with the too. The only similar thing about them is that both series cancellation wont be based on ratings as much as lack of room.

    If a Criminal Minds deal fell through, CBS would still cancel CSI NY but they have better options

    1) Expand comedy on Thursday
    2) Put Undercover Boss on the falls sched
    3) Push Unforgettable to fall.

    CSI NY is dead, it has 3 finales and since every year CBS cancels a veteran, its CSI NY, but the show had a good run.

    @Jonay – If CBS has 2 comedies on the fall schedule, 1 of them will fail. Whether they will be pulled after a few episodes or done after a season of 18 eps is another story.

  • Ultima

    @CrimTV
    @ProViewerShipNumbers

    What the?!

    That was pretty tame compared to his usual nonsensical ramblings! ;)

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