CBS: Final Predictions For 'Vegas,' 'CSI:NY,' 'Rules Of Engagement' & 'Golden Boy'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
CSI: NY CBS 10% 0%
Golden Boy CBS 0% 0%
Vegas CBS 0% 0%
Rules of Engagement CBS 30% 25%
Criminal Minds CBS 100%** 100%**

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5/9 Update: Criminal Minds has been renewed.

5/10 Update: CSI:NY has been canceled. Vegas has been canceled. Rules of Engagement has been canceled. Golden Boy has been canceled.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CBS predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

**We'd both like to note that our predictions for Criminal Minds are based only on the ratings. The cancellation of the show is conceivably possible if terms cannot be reached with the cast, but we don't attempt to predict that likelihood.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :oops: 0.50
Vegas (some F) :oops: 0.51
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.55
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.57
The Good Wife* renewed 0.62
The Mentalist renewed 0.66
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.82
CSI renewed 0.86
Elementary renewed 0.88
Rules of Engagement :cry: :cry: 0.93
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.09
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly renewed 1.11
Person Of Interest renewed 1.14
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.31
Two and a Half Men** renewed 1.47
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.13

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • James

    One wonders whether CBS would renew CSI:NY if the negotiations for Criminal Minds fall through and the show is cancelled.

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    1) Expand comedy on Thursday

    No! CBS is either going to expand their comedy hours or their not. They aren’t going to let a Criminal Minds cancellation be a precondition for that. That would be beyond absurd.

    If Criminal Minds is canceled, they will need to replace it with something – CSI: NY, Undercover Boss, a new drama…

    … or Unforgettable. That’s something I hadn’t considered; unlikely, but interesting.

    I think the chances of CBS cancelling Criminal Minds and then renewing CSI:NY is very unlikely, but the possibility of it happening is a non-zero number! :)

  • DuMont

    Cancelled:
    CSI: NY
    Golden Boy
    Vegas CBS

    Renewed:
    Rules of Engagement (13 episodes)
    Criminal Minds

  • Ultima

    @James
    One wonders whether CBS would renew CSI:NY if the negotiations for Criminal Minds fall through and the show is cancelled.

    Apparently only “one” is wondering that. Everyone else thinks I’m crazy! :mrgreen:

  • bob

    vegas and criminal minds has to be renewed, the rest is just crapø…

  • Connor Murdock

    it doesnt matter if criminal minds is renewed or not that still wont help CSI NY. golden boy, vegas, rules of engagement are all as good as cancelled.

    however, I dont see the incentive for CBS to renew Criminal Minds next year. its an expensive show that they don’t own. honestly it can go either way.

  • bob

    the fact that criminal mind has gotten better this season gives it hopes

  • James

    @Ultima

    Ah hadn’t seen your comment proposing the same theory. Great minds think alike. Or incredibly wrong minds in regards to TV renewals. Either one… :)

  • Eliot

    MY RENEWAL/CANCELLATION PREDICTIONS:

    CSI: NY (cancelled):(
    Golden Boy (cancelled)
    Vegas (cancelled)
    Rules of Engagement (cancelled):(
    Criminal Minds (cancelled)

  • Mon

    @Ultimate
    Apparently only “one” is wondering that. Everyone else thinks I’m crazy!

    You are not alone! I can’t help but wonder about the possible scenarios if (a BIG IF) Criminal Minds is cancelled. Is CBS going to move a veteran show in its place? A new show perhaps? And to a lesser extent renew CSI: NY?

  • Mon

    I meant “OR to a lesser extent…”

  • Mon

    @Elliot

    CSI: NY (cancelled):(
    Criminal Minds (cancelled)

    Noooo… CBS should not cancel these shows in the same year. Let one live. It’s just wrong and sad for fans of both shows that were together for 5 strong years.

  • _JC

    I wonder how often a show pulling 93% of network average gets cancelled, with the concensus being that is has less chance at renewal than the dregs of the network. Hm. (I’m not arguing for a RoE renewal, I don’t even like the damn show, I just find its situation interesting.)

  • Ultima

    @JC
    I wonder how often a show pulling 93% of network average gets cancelled, with the concensus being that is has less chance at renewal than the dregs of the network. Hm. (I’m not arguing for a RoE renewal, I don’t even like the damn show, I just find its situation interesting.)

    This happens pretty much every year with one of CBS’ sitcoms.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    CSI: NY CBS 5% Only if Criminal Minds contract negotiations fall through & they don’t try to use that extra hour that they weren’t expecting to test out new comedies for when HMIYM, Mike & Molly & eventually 2 Broke Girls/TAAHM are all removed from the schedule & they prefer a known Friday hour vs a 4th New Drama/another Reality Filler like Undercover Boss.
    Golden Boy 0%
    Vegas CBS 0%
    Rules of Engagement 5% only if they like a few comedy pilots more than 1 or 2, thus an expansion of comedy hours (meaning 2 dramas or CM is let go), and only as schedule spackle for a failed comedy out of all 3 slots.
    Criminal Minds CBS 100%** 100%** What’s sad is that basically the whole cast is up for contracts & this is at 109% (tied for 3rd best), & CBS already has 3 shows next year & 2 more in 2 years that are worse off, so even though it’s not CBS, the cast deserves the raises.

    I don’t think CBS knows right now how many New dramas vs New Comedies for fall (at least) they plan on doing. I think Criminal Minds plus all their comedy pilots is making it difficult to decide. In fact, I wonder why TGW/TM were announced relatively early. I mean, I’m sure TGW/TM could have waited until the week of their last episode b/c they could have filmed 2 different 3min final scenes to wrap them up well enough, if need be. Still, with their renewal it put pressure on Criminal Minds cast to sign otherwise they could afford to cancel their show. Which is why 3 New comedies & 3 New Dramas is possible instead of the expected 2 New Comedies & 4 New Dramas. ESP, with ROE spackle not as preferable to TBBT repeats/ a spring New Comedy.

  • Dan S

    Right now CBS probably has 2 mockup schedules. 1 with CM returning & the other it’s gone. Either way I think CBS is going to add 1 hr of comedy most likely on Thur. POI could easily replace CM on Wed & assuming CM returns it can move to Tues at 10pm. Otherwise they can plug in a new drama like Intelligence or Hostages which I understand the latter is very likely to receive a pickup.

  • ProViewerShipNumbers

    CBS | 2013-2014 | TUESDAY

    8- NCIS (29 episodes)
    9- The Good Wife (29 episodes)
    10- NCIS: Los Angeles (29 episodes)

    The Late Show with David Letterman (begins at 11:37pm)
    The Late Late Show (begins at 12:40pm)
    The Good Wife (repeat; begins at 1:40am; 780,000)
    All The Single Ladies (repeat; begins at 2:40am; 290,000)
    Up To The Minute (begins at 3:08am)

    JUNE – SEPTEMBER
    8- NCIS
    9- The Good Wife
    10- NCIS: Los Angeles
    The Late Show with David Letterman (begins at 11:37pm)
    The Late Late Show (begins at 12:40pm)
    All The Single Ladies (begins at 1:40am)
    The Good Wife (begins at 2:10am)
    Up To The Minute (begins at 3:08am)

  • CJVC

    I thought CSI:NY was cancelled already, AXN Latinamerica has been promoting CSI: NY’s “last case” in an ad that includes most of its shows, I guess they’re gonna stop airing it either way?

  • Jake

    I hope they don’t cancel CSI:NY but I know they will. So go ahead & do it already!!!!!!! get it over with!!!!!!!

  • ProViewerShipNumbers

    CBS | 2013-2014 | WEDNESDAY

    8- The McCarthys (26 episodes)
    8- Untitled Tad Quill Project (26 episodes)
    9- 2 Broke Girls (27 episodes)
    9- Ex-Men (26 episodes)
    10- CSI (final season; 29 episodes)

    The Late Show with David Letterman (begins at 11:37pm)
    The Late Late Show (begins at 12:40pm)
    The McCarthys (repeat; begins at 1:40am; 770,000)
    Untitled Tad Quill Project (repeat; begins at 2:10am; 750,000)
    2 Broke Girls (repeat; begins at 2:40am; 350,000)
    Up To The Minute (begins at 3:08am)

    JUNE – SEPTEMBER
    8- The McCarthys
    8- Untitled Tad Quill Project
    9- 2 Broke Girls
    9:30- The Jagged Orbit (16 episodes)
    10:30- Ex-Men
    The Late Show with David Letterman (begins at 11:37pm)
    The Late Late Show (begins at 12:40pm)
    The McCarthys (begins at 1:40am)
    Untitled Tad Quill Project (begins at 2:10am)
    The Jagged Orbit (repeat; begins at 2:40am)
    Up To The Minute (begins at 3:35am)

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