CBS: Final Predictions For 'Vegas,' 'CSI:NY,' 'Rules Of Engagement' & 'Golden Boy'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
CSI: NY CBS 10% 0%
Golden Boy CBS 0% 0%
Vegas CBS 0% 0%
Rules of Engagement CBS 30% 25%
Criminal Minds CBS 100%** 100%**

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5/9 Update: Criminal Minds has been renewed.

5/10 Update: CSI:NY has been canceled. Vegas has been canceled. Rules of Engagement has been canceled. Golden Boy has been canceled.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CBS predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

**We'd both like to note that our predictions for Criminal Minds are based only on the ratings. The cancellation of the show is conceivably possible if terms cannot be reached with the cast, but we don't attempt to predict that likelihood.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :oops: 0.50
Vegas (some F) :oops: 0.51
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.55
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.57
The Good Wife* renewed 0.62
The Mentalist renewed 0.66
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.82
CSI renewed 0.86
Elementary renewed 0.88
Rules of Engagement :cry: :cry: 0.93
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.09
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly renewed 1.11
Person Of Interest renewed 1.14
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.31
Two and a Half Men** renewed 1.47
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.13

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    Sweet mother of G’d, it worked!

    Now, the less important bold test. Did it work?

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    Did it work?

    Yes, it did!

  • omabin

    - Rules of Engagement: 33%
    - Criminal Minds: 100%
    - CSI NY: 33%
    - Golden Boy: 2%
    - Vegas: 0%

  • David Howell

    Rules: 0%. Its role has been superceded by TBBT reruns and the writers know it.
    Criminal Minds: 95%. It seems like CBS veteran shows are keener on self-cannibalization than becoming bearchow right now, doesn’t it? 2.5 Men, HIMYM, 2.5 Men again, and now this.
    CSI NY: 3%. That’s a 60% chance of a pickup if CM falls through, and a 0% chance if it doesn’t.
    Golden Boy: 1%. That’s a 20% chance of a pickup if CM falls through, and a 0% chance if it doesn’t.
    Vegas: 0%.

  • TheFrenchGuy

    @ Anna Bones Clarkhood
    Thanks :)

    [i] Test to see if italic works[/i]

  • Holly

    @TheFrenchGuy,

    You have to replace the [] with < and its opposite

  • KJ Styles

    I wish Bill and Robert were more like Mike Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser, or Stephen A Smith and Skip Bayless.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I wish Bill and Robert were more like Mike Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser”

    So do we ;)

    We used to disagree somewhat more early on, and then created made up disagreement, then we stopped even bothering with that.

  • TheFrenchGuy

    @ Holly

    Thanks ;)

    Test number 2

  • Rollie Dethloff

    Man, wouldn’t it just be sweet if Criminal Minds got cancelled instead of CSI: NY?

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    The one good thing about being in agreement and being 99% correct is that it strengthens TVBTN’s case of whatever they predict.

    If your track record was less than that, we risk you both being both wrong b/c you are blind to it. However, you don’t base your predictions on opinions, except partly in the 40-60 range. So, I don’t see your agreement as a detriment.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @Rollie,

    HECK NO!

    I watch both & really like both shows.

    1. CSI:NY ended nicely.
    2. Criminal Minds is possibly a cliffhanger.
    3. CSI:NY is much closer to run of the mill case by the week procedural.
    4. Criminal Minds we go all over the country, thus lots of cool guest actors, & mostly about one serial killer case & trying to figure out what makes them tick in order to figure who they are & what they are going to do next.
    5. CBS is getting lots more $ from Criminal Minds, tied for 3rd highest drama vs lowest, if renewed, drama that CSI:NY was getting. More than double.

    Look, I will miss the actors/actresses on CSI:NY & I’m not sure who all will find spots on shows that I will watch, save for Doc on Covert Affairs this summer, but they had a long run & the show has to end sometime, esp when ratings, even for Friday, just aren’t good enough anymore, right?

    Criminal Minds, has already proven that it can change cast, usually just 1 or 2 cast members a season, but I think that if contracts can’t be renewed for a full season, we get slightly more expensive, by per episode basis, transition time to phase the cast that didn’t sign new contracts out.

    BTW, while JJ & Penelope, more so Penelope IMO, have been given a way to establish their roles & succeed, Penelope could be replaced by Kevin & then we just minimize time with him esp her & Derek, which while cute etc isn’t going to go anywhere & not needed. JJ esp can easily be replaced, not with a replica but with a new member with their own characteristics etc to bring to the team. We def don’t need both Derek & Aaron, as they are both leaders. Derek can lead if needed, or even someone new like when Jason left.

  • The Rookie

    Wow, at this rate CM could have recorded their episode and maybe even a cliffhanger!

  • The Rookie

    Their last episode

  • Dan

    I think it’s funny how people actually think that Criminal Minds won’t be renewed. There’s no if this or what if that, it’s coming back

  • HV

    Here are my predictions (Note that I do not believe in giving 0% or 100%)

    CSI:NY 24%
    Of the the not-yet-renewed dramas (other than Criminal Minds), this one has the best chance at renewal. Still, I don’t think it’s gonna happen.
    Golden Boy 12%
    It’s not doing well at all.
    Vegas 10%
    Not doing well at all either, and CBS has expressed that they don’t care about the show by airing an episode on Saturday instead of airing it somewhere else in the week or pushing the season finale date ahead one week.
    Rules of Engagement 38%
    If CBS stays with 3 hours of comedy, this show is dead. I think, though, there is a possibility in which this show can gain renewal. If CBS adds a fourth hour of comedy January-May on Wednesday, then this show can air at 8:00 with a new show following at 8:30. But I don’t think that’s happening.
    Criminal Minds 95%
    It hasn’t been renewed yet, which causes some worry, but not much.

    Biggest Difference: CSI:NY
    While you say this show has a 0% chance at coming back, I say there’s a 24% chance.
    Disagreements: None

  • Billy

    I am really quite surprised many people here think ROE is going to be renewed. I think it has virtually no chance at all of a renewal. CBS is preempting it next week for a TBBT repeat. That is what CBS thinks of it. Also, if you watched yesterday’s episode they are wrapping up the show. On May 20 will be a series finale type show.

    The bottom line is that CBS simply does not need a bench player like ROE anymore. They have TBBT repeats as their bench player if needed. I will be stunned if ROE is renewed. That show had a nice 100 episode run, but is completely finished.

  • Nick

    My predictions-

    CSI: NY: 12%
    Golden Boy: 0%
    Vegas: 0%
    Rules of Engagement: 25%
    Criminal Minds: 100%

    Virtually no differences.

  • Doc

    The two actresses on criminal minds ought to spend some time thinking about other actresses that bailed on shows, over perceived salary inequities, only to see the show go on to a lengthy run. (e.g. the girl that played Kate on NCIS, she left and disappeared). Criminal minds is a great show and could run 10 more years. Over 10 years they could earn a great deal of money compared to what they’ll earn if they roll the dice on landing a new part. IMHO, neither is crucial to the shows success.

    I’m sad that Vegas has apparently tanked. Loved the characters. But the last 4 or 5 episodes have seemed like the writers lost their way.

    Too bad. I think CBS ought to rethink the entire 30 minute comedy concept. For every sucess, it seems there are 3 or 4 absolute bombs.

  • Jessica P.

    @Connor Murdock

    however, I dont see the incentive for CBS to renew Criminal Minds next year. its an expensive show that they don’t own. honestly it can go either way.

    It’s been pointed out before but since people still don’t listen: CBS co-owns Criminal Minds with ABC Studios. So there is financial incentive related to ownership interests at stake for CBS in deciding whether to renew it.

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