CBS: Final Predictions For 'Vegas,' 'CSI:NY,' 'Rules Of Engagement' & 'Golden Boy'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
CSI: NY CBS 10% 0%
Golden Boy CBS 0% 0%
Vegas CBS 0% 0%
Rules of Engagement CBS 30% 25%
Criminal Minds CBS 100%** 100%**

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5/9 Update: Criminal Minds has been renewed.

5/10 Update: CSI:NY has been canceled. Vegas has been canceled. Rules of Engagement has been canceled. Golden Boy has been canceled.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CBS predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

**We'd both like to note that our predictions for Criminal Minds are based only on the ratings. The cancellation of the show is conceivably possible if terms cannot be reached with the cast, but we don't attempt to predict that likelihood.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :oops: 0.50
Vegas (some F) :oops: 0.51
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.55
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.57
The Good Wife* renewed 0.62
The Mentalist renewed 0.66
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.82
CSI renewed 0.86
Elementary renewed 0.88
Rules of Engagement :cry: :cry: 0.93
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.09
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly renewed 1.11
Person Of Interest renewed 1.14
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.31
Two and a Half Men** renewed 1.47
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.13

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Ultima

    @Holly
    Also, anger at reality TV is misdirected because CSI: NY, Vegas, and Golden Boy will be replaced with new scripted shows, not reality shows.

    QFE

  • TV Viewer

    @ Holly
    @ Ultima

    In addition to CSI:NY, Golden Boy, and Vegas being replaced with scripted shows (instead of a another reality show); Rules of Engagement should be added to the list as it is also going to be replaced by another scripted show, and not a reality program. Mom will probably replace ROE in it’s Monday night 8:30 to 9:00 time slot.

  • bluejays

    If Criminal Minds loses some cast members I think it will lose a lot of ratings next year. It’s already trending down and things could get worse if the negotiations don’t pan out.

    Look at what happened to SVU when they lost stabler. Big drop in the ratings.

  • todd35

    People should have given Vegas a chance. It was so different than the typical NYC cop show that seems to be on every night. Don’t get me wrong, I like some of them including CSI NY and Blue Bloods… but I like to break away from that mode as well and watch something a like Vegas… You still have a cowboy sheirf (based on a real life Sheirf Lamb)and a 1960 mobster (that you can’t tell if you love or hate). The show keeps you on your toes, and it being semi seriel makes you want to watch the next episode to see what happens…

  • TV Viewer

    Vegas was a great show, but, the ratings were terrible, and it was expensive. Excellent, (costly), programs with horrible ratings (18 – 49 demo and total viewers), get cancelled all the time by all the networks.

  • Steve

    Dang. I LIKE “Vegas”. Michael Chiklis is as good as an outright crook, as he was as a crooked cop in “The Shield”. There ARE more folks in the 50-69 year old category that like good shows than there are in the 18-49 category the sponsors look for. Dang, WE buy products, too, ya know…….

  • Scarps

    what’s the status of NCIS: Red. Is it go for the fall 13 lineup?

  • Lisa

    Does anyone (moderators?) know why the networks don’t try to move a show to another night before they cancel it?

  • Matthew Chapman

    Criminal Minds has been renewed.

  • Annie

    Well, I hate to be the odd man out here……really!!….. because I want to see Golden Boy continue. I enjoyed this show very much and I want to find out how he gets to be commissioner in 7 years. I love Chi McBride in anything and I really liked the rest of the cast of newcomers, at least to me. I’m disappointed.

  • Barbie

    Robert, thank you for your 10% in CSI:NY. I love that you have hopes like me :) CBS’s greatest survivor isn’t dead till it is.

  • sally

    I like CSI NY,vegas, cant stand Golden Boy,im glad Criminal Minds is renewed

  • John

    Crap. I really liked Vegas.

  • Billie Holden

    Pllleeeeessssseeeee don’t cancel Vegas or Golden Boy!

  • Matthew Chapman

    CSI:NY has been cancelled

  • Matthew Chapman

    Vegas has also been Cancelled.

  • Matthew Chapman

    Third Cancellation-Rules of Engagement has also bitten the dust

  • Matthew Chapman

    And Last but by no means least, Golden Boy has been Cancelled.

  • Bradleigh H Horton

    WRONG FRODO! RULES OF ENGAGEMENT went BYE-BYE too.

  • Dawn Payne

    I have heard tonight that Vegas will be cancelled. I am so tired of all the excellent dramas that I enjoy on your station being cancelled! We were major fans of all of the CSI series. You have cancelled several of them. We are senior citizens & enjoy CBS primarily. Your recent programming changes/cancellations have made us have second thoughts about our programming choices. Your organization needs to take a hard look at their selections. I had a grandfather who retired from NBC back in the 70′s.They used to have decent/interesting shows also decades ago: perhaps we should re-think our program loyalty.

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