CW: Final Predictions For 'Nikita' & 'The Carrie Diaries'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
Carrie Diaries, The CW 15% 10%
Nikita CW 85% 100%

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5/9 Update: Nikita and The Carrie Diaries have both been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CW predictions. Our one significant difference that existed towards the end of the season, the fate of Beauty & The Beast, having been resolved a few weeks ago. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.57
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.93
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.90

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Dillan

    After Nikita’s 0.2 last week, I don’t think its that safe, I can see it getting renewed but maybe for 13 episodes. You can still get a syndication deal with 80 episodes.

    TCD’s chance look slim right now, but The CW are still posting about it on their Facebook page..

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “After Nikita’s 0.2 last week, I don’t think its that safe, I can see it getting renewed but maybe for 13 episodes. You can still get a syndication deal with 80 episodes.

    TCD’s chance look slim right now, but The CW are still posting about it on their Facebook page..”

    If you think Nikita is going to be canceled and Carrie Diaries renewed, prepare for double disappointment.

  • Dillan

    @Bill

    I clearly said about Nikita, “I can see it getting renewed”..

  • frodo

    Nikita is getting renewed for a final season, TCD will be canceled no doubt about that.

  • Sel

    CW had never disappointed me, last year they renewed their only show I watch and now they renewed it again + BatB, which is awesome. I guess Nikita is gonna live on for another year though.

  • gerry

    nikita is def getting renewed, that’s a no brainer.

    i would LOVE tcd to get renewed, even as spackle for a failing fall show. but i’m a realist. sigh.

  • John A

    Nikita really is the True Syndication Renewel test.

  • SJ

    The Carrie Diaries – 20%
    Nikita – 80%

    …although if there ever was a time to defy the syndication gods, it would be this. A 0.2? Come on, even the CW is better than that!

  • Dan

    @SJ – Give about 15% of your Carrie Diaries prediction to Nikita. If CW put up with the show for 3 full seasons than they would be foolish but to give t a full fourth season for syndication. It seems CW may be done with failing monday teen shows as Gossip Girl, 90210 and Carrie Diaries seem all dead.

    My guess

    Nikita – 100%
    The Carrie Diaries – 0%

  • Rachel

    Haven’t shows have made it into syndication with even less than 88 episodes? I think it’s in the CW best favor not to give Nikita a full season.

  • Wright

    Cancel TCD and renew Nikita!!!

  • Samuel

    They’d be idiots not to renew Nikita. Why put up with it for a declining second season, renew it for a further declining third season, and not renew it for the magic 88?

    Nikita: 100% (it’s just a question of how many episodes)
    TCD: 5%

  • TV Addict

    Nikita will be canceled. Calling it.

  • Nikki

    i dont know which of the two will be renewed but Nikita doesnt deserve a renewal.. last season was terrible and this season was even worse. Its ratings are horrible and pathetic.. i wouldnt say TCD deserves to be renewed but its a newer show and does better then Nikita so the right thing to do would be renew TCD but its the CW so its like pissing in the wind. They do strange things, and unfair things so noone can really pridict when it comes to this network. Cancel them both if need be.. but lets be fair this time.

  • Alan

    Nikita should be cancelled, I don’t care about syndication. Higher-rated shows have been cancelled, and it wouldn’t be fair to renew Nikita when GG, 90210, EOMD had better numbers and still got cancelled. CW has to make the right decision and let it die already.

  • Nikki

    @ alan i agree 100% with that. But like i said before the CW does odd things and they are not fair in any way. or justified even.. they cancel higher rated shows all the time with no real reason besides nonsense about a lead in. Its silly… im sure they will renew Nikita and we can watch it fail some more and hit lower ratings lol. its entertainment. lol

  • Alan

    Seriously, if they keep Nikita around, it will be pulling 0.1’s and 0.2’s (maybe zeros). Where are all the Nikita fans that said that GG, 90210 and other shows hurt the network? Nikita is doing that now.

  • Tom

    There seems to be an inverse relationship between the number of seasons a series has aired on the CW and the likelihood of it being cancelled for low ratings. In the case of the Nikita, the lure of syndication revenue has to date clearly outweighed the show’s low ratings. This is in addition to the income Nikita and the network’s other shows derive from foreign licensing, Netflix, Hulu and other online sales.

    The CW operates on a modest budget. So, when it comes to ratings, it will never achieve parity with the major networks. So, based on what I’ve seen, the CW pretty much has a free hand to keep a program like Nikita running so long as the show meets the network’s cost/benefit analysis. In other words, unless the program debuts as a total ratings flop, return on investment becomes the predominant consideration in determining which shows remain on the CW schedule.

    I predict that the CW will find the syndication and other revenue generated by Nikita to be irresistible. Accordingly, I give Nikita a 95% chance of being renewed for 22 more episodes.

  • Lisa

    Nikita deserves to be cancelled but won’t be. I expect it to flop in syndication, so it’ll be a double failure. The Carrie Diaries also doesn’t deserve to return and won’t, so that’s something.

  • Rebecca

    TCD is God awful (imo of course). Not that the CW is known for award winning shows but TCD takes it to a new low. SATC was so good and TCD is just so far away from the level of quality of SATC that it’s laughable. None of the actors in the show can act for anything. Weak story lines, ugh. I tried it, couldn’t do it. Left after 5 episodes.

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