CW: Final Predictions For 'Nikita' & 'The Carrie Diaries'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
Carrie Diaries, The CW 15% 10%
Nikita CW 85% 100%

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5/9 Update: Nikita and The Carrie Diaries have both been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CW predictions. Our one significant difference that existed towards the end of the season, the fate of Beauty & The Beast, having been resolved a few weeks ago. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.57
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.93
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.90

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Dan

    @Alan – Right or Fair or not, it would be very smart and lucrative to give Nikita 22 more episodes. If they put up with a 22 episode season of low ratings (which they would likely have with any friday show) then it benefits WB later when the show has 88 episodes for an off network syndication run. Thats why they renewed it last May and thats why shows that get over 3 seasons and 66 episodes will get a fourth. Thats how the business goes.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    Nikita spoilers say that is season finale is a cliff hanger.

    Nikita & CW knew early enough whether it was going to get renewed or not.

    The 1st cliffhanger is evident of that.

    However, it’s mostly to do with # of episodes that whoever wants to buy it for syndication wants to pay for. They might even think a 2hr wrap up movie is all they want. That would make it 69 episodes, low yes, but then again Roswell only has 61 among others in the 60s with syndication deals.

    Robert & Bill are predicting for airing new episodes in the upcoming season. The only way that I don’t see that occurring is if they make the 2hr Movie a Netflix/Amazon &/or Syndication Exclusive.

    As far as confidence in # of episodes:
    2hr Movie: 5%
    10-13 episodes only: 40%
    21 or 22 episodes: 60%

    I still think that since we only saw 2 .2’s all season long, which is fewer than the # of .5’s & that purchasing this low rated show “must” be more a programming slot filler than a must have vs competing networks type situation, means that more episodes would make the most sense. That’s why a full season order makes the most sense. However, CW has not renewed it, even with omission of # of episodes, 2 different press release chances, so there must be serious issues with it’s ratings, particularly for the 4th season vs programming holes. Which means that the compromise could be a fall only season or even if the Pilots all test good a 2hr (or possibly 4 or 6) movie to air after ANTM ends, in that slot aka Nov/Dec.

    Regarding TCD, no way should they renew it & they def don;t have to. 1 season & done “franchise” spinoffs/remakes are possible.

  • I love TV!

    I really don’t see any cable network picking up a show where in it’s original airings only had a 0.2.. But ok, I really don’t know how these things work. So Nikita is canceled

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The 1st cliffhanger is evident of that.”

    A cliffhanger is never evidence of *anything*.

  • david

    I think Nikita is renwed and TCD is canciled. I want them to pick up the Tomorrow People, The Selection, The Hundred and Oxygen. I think they will pick up Rain as well.

  • Wright

    I’m so looking forward to Oxygen if it gets picked up. I was a huge Roswell fan.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @Tom,

    CW is not unique in that regard.

    If a show starts it’s 1st 13/22 season with just below avg ratings then renewing it makes no sense. The only sense is if they are making money off of it (albeit not a lot) & want a 2nd season to test it out to see if it can improve, (at least in regards to overall network avg). Also, if a show makes it to it’s 3rd season then syndication is where they can make their money back for the 3rd low rated & 4th final season.

    Blue Bloods on CBS & Raising Hope on FOX are just 2 examples this year of “Nikita” type s4 renewals, esp Blue Bloods.

    Scandal on ABC was last year’s let’s try out s2 & we can see that that worked well for them. They are going to renew Nashville for similar reasons as well, though critics will say it’s just a save face renewal.

    Partners on CBS was cancelled w/o a full season pickup even though it’s actual ratings weren’t god awful, they were actually better than TCD as far as each respective network is concerned. Not even airing all it’s episodes was more b/c of the awesome rerun ability & availability of TBBT. Golden Boy is also going to be cancelled even though it’s not that much worse either. Vegas was able to get a full season order based on solid ratings but not worthy enough for a renewal. Letting a show play out it’s 13ep order or even getting an upgrade to full season does 2 things. Let’s fan’s that are willing to try new shows at least somewhat a good feeling of at least some storylines complete & seeing if it can gain viewers through word of mouth. Another thing is programming. NBC cancelled so many shows early on that they had to scramble to fill up time slots, even going with Voice Repeats on Sunday & SVU repeats a few times, esp on Thursday 10pm. CW doesn’t have much in regards to backups. In fact, ANTM is repeats tonight. That just seems strange to me as it’s an elimination type format show so unless they air the whole season or it’s actually a favorites type show, it just seems like a desperate slot.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @Bill,

    I understand that point, 99% of the time.

    However the whole Nikita staff knew full well that their ratings sucked.

    So, the only reason for the cliffhanger if not given the CW assurances of at least a 2hr movie, is that the staff wanted to force the CW to either piss off their fans & possible syndication deal or renew them.

    Nikita had 2 finales that could have been series finales, if need be, prior to this year. I don’t think the staff wants their show to not have things wrapped up.

    That said, I do gave a 1% chance that, CW didn’t assure Nikita of it’s ability to provide closure/wrap-up & that Nikita staff said well eff CW, we are going to force CW’s hand & make a cliffhanger. If they don’t renew us, I guess we can post on some forum our closure/wrap-up, otherwise as far as syndication goes there won’t be much value in a 67ep, no closure, pitifully low rated show.

    I also give 1% chance that CW did give assurances but recent ratings &/or no one willing to buy the show, possibly couple with the firing of Mark Pedowitz all could occur to not allow the renewal of Nikita, cliffhanger & all.

  • Tom Shaw

    Carrie Diaries, The 20% (If CW hates all their pilots and Nikita falls through and they don’t want a repeat hour on the original schedule.)
    Nikita 85% (The numbers are horrific… except for the one number that counts, 67 – the number of episodes produced so far. I still think Syndication Over All! – but this will test it.)

  • Funeral Dinner

    Both of them are dead weight, almost everyone seems convinced Nikita will only return because of syndication. Carrie Diaries was DOA.

  • Cass

    @Alan
    Nikita should be cancelled, I don’t care about syndication. Higher-rated shows have been cancelled, and it wouldn’t be fair to renew Nikita when GG, 90210, EOMD had better numbers and still got cancelled.

    You may not care about syndication but the studios who make the shows sure do! The entire CW network is a profit sieve and consistently loses money every year. But it continues to exist because the parent companies, CBS and WB, are able to make up that loss through syndication, DVD sales, streaming deals, international sales, etc.

    TCD and EOMD have zero chance of making it to that fourth season of syndication profitability. And their ratings on their own don’t make enough ad money to support the shows. Therefore, it’s a no-brainer that they won’t make it on the schedule next fall. The problem is that you’re comparing freshman shows and veterans-past-season 4 shows against Nikita which is an invalid comparison.

    Freshman shows have to be measured against the ballpark of where Nikita was its first season (adjusting for annual ratings decline across the board). Neither of the two freshman shows you champion measure up by that standard. Now to compare veteran post-season 4 shows with Nikita. Once they’ve reached the fourth and fifth seasons, the studios are able to fully reap the benefits of syndication.

    So a season 6/7 would need to be justified by its own ratings yet again. The ratings unfortunately do not justify another season of GG or 90210. It can certainly be argue that the ratings for Nikita never justified a season 3 but by renewing it anyway, the CW made a de facto decision for a fourth season anyway. Otherwise they will have eaten terrible ratings for no benefit.

  • catsrule

    It’s ridiculous that a show getting 0.2s is a lock to come back, this is why the CW is such a joke. If a show does poorly in first-run it likely won’t do well in syndication either. A prime example is Til Death. And not every show gets an automatic 4th season renewal, Hope & Faith was one of my favorite shows and it got cancelled after 3 seasons. It’s a bit older but still aired after 2000, so not that old.

  • Jonay

    Could The CW still (as you said before)renew NIKITA and air during the summer???

  • Tom

    @ Bones

    It’s pretty clear you didn’t understand my post. So, allow me to elaborate. Nikita should never have had a third season much less a fourth one. Last year, a number of posters (me included) were surprised when Nikita was renewed. What that implies is that the CW will not walk away from any series with at least 44 completed episodes. That was confirmed recently when Hart of Dixie was renewed for a third season.

    The way to accumulate 44 episodes is simply by renewing a series after its first season. In other words, on the CW, a first season renewal is tantamount to a further three year commitment. What annoys me is that the CW will probably be willing to let these low rated bombs continue airing even if it later develops better programming to replace them.

    I don’t believe the major networks are as cynical about the way they program their schedules. In contrast to the CW, their schedules don’t consist of 70% ratings flops. So, while they may allow the occasional low rated program to air a bit longer to reach syndication, I doubt if they can ignore the competition and carry low rated shows for multiple seasons just for that purpose.

  • joe

    cancel them both

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Last year, a number of posters (me included) were surprised when Nikita was renewed. What that implies is that the CW will not walk away from any series with at least 44 completed episodes. That was confirmed recently when Hart of Dixie was renewed for a third season.”

    Bad conclusion drawn from available evidence.

    Once renewed for a third season guarantees a fourth, yes.

    But once renewed for a second season guaranteeing a third and fourth? The available evidence does not support that. Second season show cancellations are always possible.

  • DuMont

    ‘Nikita’ canceled, removed from air forever after s3e22 airs in 10 days.

    ‘The Carrie Diaries’ renewed for 13 episodes.

    The CW rebuilds Fridays by targeting W18-34s on that night.

  • Z

    @Jonay
    I would prefer that, I don’t think its sating will change cause last summer it was repeating the same now and only slightly less in the previous season.
    Which would mean they will move a show to Friday (HoD) or Friday will end up being just repeats which I don’t think the CW would want.

  • serendipity’s last stand

    Nikita does not deserve a renewal number wise but I think they will give it a wrap up season then put it out of its missary

  • lat

    only a idiot would renew nikita over carrie diarie…

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