CW: Final Predictions For 'Nikita' & 'The Carrie Diaries'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
Carrie Diaries, The CW 15% 10%
Nikita CW 85% 100%

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5/9 Update: Nikita and The Carrie Diaries have both been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CW predictions. Our one significant difference that existed towards the end of the season, the fate of Beauty & The Beast, having been resolved a few weeks ago. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.57
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.93
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.90

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Joseph

    I suspect “Nikita” will be moved to a midweek slot and the CW Friday-night schedule this Fall will consist entirely or reality and/or reruns.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @Tom, I agree with Bill here.

    I’m not sure what Nikita s2 fall & s2 spring were at however, many shows only get 2 seasons. CW doesn’t have as many examples to work from, esp of the low rated s2 variety. But, I don’t think that renewing for s2 means a defacto 3 season renewal.

    In fact, if the s2 fall ratings are really bad, which posters tell me Nikita was fine for that time period, then it could end up getting canceled at 35 episodes (22+13) or esp 13(spring replacement)+13 fall test.

    The fact that you, Bill, Robert & many posters here were surprised by the s3 renewal probably plays more to factors beyond ratings. Such as, not enough funds for clearing the slate & debuting a bunch of New shows, syndication buyers giving serious offers, dvd/international sales, maybe even cost of the show aka overhead & of course the human factor of the network head reportedly has a soft spot for it, similar to FOX’s Fringe.

  • Guest

    Cancel both. They both don’t deserve another season.

  • Eliot

    MY RENEWAL/CANCELLATION PREDICTIONS:

    The Carrie Diaries (renewed)
    Nikita (renewed)

  • Dan

    Til Deaths ratings sucked and that show wasnt even owned by the network that aired it.

    Nikita will be renewed, and then it will be gone May 2014.

  • Dan

    @Anna Bones Clarkwood – No CW show has aired 2 full seasons and not gotten a third. And no show has aired 3 full seasons and not gotten a fourth.

    Reaper and Life Unexpected got second seasons but they were short.

    BATB could be the first show to get 2 full seasons and then be cancelled but I doubt it

    I dont think anyone was surprised by Nikita’s third season renewal but if a show gets a full third season it will most certainly get a fourth.

    My guess is that Nikita and BATB will be paired Fridays.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @Dan,

    Ok, “no”, b/c I have no reason to doubt your knowledge of it’s history.

    However, how big is that sample size? Meaning, how many shows total got 2 full seasons & then was renewed all the way to syndication.

    In fact, while you are looking that up, how many one and done shows exist for the CW?

    Why I ask is b/c when working with small numbers statistical anomalies can occur that don’t predict future results. I.E. I can roll a 6 sided dice 10 times & only get an odd number, that doesn’t mean the dice is weighted to only land as an odd it just randomly was the case. The next 10 times might be all even or half and half or even again all odd but eventually in 100 or 1000 times it will be very close to 50-50 as law of averages will make it so. Yes, CW is a human factor, so the humans at CW might actually say that 2 full seasons means 4 full seasons, but until we get a large sample size, or they come right out and say so, we are merely speculating based on meaningless amount of data to back up our claims.

  • reallypeople

    Nikita will be renewed for 22 episodes for a final season. Anything else is just fan hopes or bitter grapes at their show not being renewed. The whole point of running a network is to minimize risk, maximize results, and lower cost. Renewing Nikita does that, renewing TCD does not. It’s as simple as that.

    The reason for renewing Nikita is simple… the WB wants their 88 and will make the math/cost work to make it happen. Paired up with the CW’s lack of other options… Now could the WB suddenly change their minds and pull support? Sure. But there’s no reason to think they would. Renewing TCD a show that would perform, at best, “on par” with Nikita next season at a higher cost and farther away from syndication isn’t going to happen. Sorry fans. If TCD is renewed for a short season, it’s not due to the Nikita situation but the pilots tanking.

    Besides taking the easy money and slotting Nikita at 22 episodes… here is what the CW should do to save its brand (but won’t). Slot Nikita’s 22 episodes in Spring and Summer 2014. Do not put any original programming on Friday. None. Also, do not put reruns on Friday, either. Instead, make every week a new original sci-fi/horror film using the already on roster CW talent. For example, a horror film starring Bilson and Padalecki. Use the Netflix partnership to carry the films via streaming after its initial airing.

    Pick up (if dropped) Bad Teacher and Super Fun Night (with Rebel Wilson, fresh off her MTV Movie Awards gig) and pair it with HoD. This will give them two comedies (something the CW desperately needs to increase their audience) with immediate impact potential with their desired demographic.

    Fill the rest of the remaining slots with the new pilots, with preference given to Reign and The Tomorrow People. Keep one of: The Selection or The Hundred and keep it for Summer 2014 to show along with Nikita. That way you can maintain buzz through the summer and into your new fall shows.

    However, what do I expect the CW to do? Not be creative/take any chances and pick up from the slew of sci-fi pilots available. Sigh.

  • Tessa

    @Bill Gorman

    If you think Nikita is going to be canceled and Carrie Diaries renewed, prepare for double disappointment.

    I’m no part of this conversation Bill but where did they say Nikita will be cancelled? All I see is them saying it may get only 13 episodes. You’re sounding like those snappish Nikita fans.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    P.S. I just now noticed you also are allowing for 2.5 seasons type shows to exist on the CW…I don’t think CW will cancel a show half way through it’s 3rd season, maybe when it had it’s holdovers from the cancelled networks & thus better health as a network but not now.

    And, yes, BATB is probably going to test all of this next year though 1 more data point doesn’t change my post one bit.

  • Dan S

    Nikita will in all likelihood be back for a final season 22 episodes. TCD on the other hand is gone being a low rated freshman show. I’m certain Nikita will stay on Fri & i also think it’ll get paired with BATB which surprisingly got a 2nd season. What the CW should start doing is developing some comedies besides all drama. 1 of the best comedies they had carried over from UPN was Everybody Hates Chris.

  • Bizarro

    Nikita will be renewed for a fourth and final season but I would not be surprised if the CW gives the show a shorter season next year. They can always move the new season of ANTM to August and put Nikita on in November. ANTM has done better in Nikita’s time slot this year (ANTM high .6, Nikita high .5, and ANTM low .4 and Nikita low .2) and has/is being syndicated on various networks and is a little cheaper than Nikita but in the end makes a whole lot more money than Nikita. They show ANTM on about four other channels in the U.S. alone. I don’t see why other shows can get syndicated for a little less than 88 eps, so why can’t Nikita be syndicated for 80-85 eps. Like 3 eps makes a difference, I remember a show called Tru Calling and Dark Angel were syndicated on the Scifi network and THEY HAD less than 50 episodes (26 for Tru Calling). To be honest, though the CW isn’t going to do it, the CW should switch Nikita and ANTM place. If the studio wants 22 episodes SO BAD, than they should put the first half of season four in the summer and the second half in the spring and put ANTM in the fall.

  • Bizarro

    @Dan S
    Pedowitz has stated that the CW will be adding comedies to the schedule in the 2014-2015 season.

  • Jared

    A series like The Carrie Diaries needed to be a hit straight out of the gate considering It premiered mid season with only 13 episodes to find an audience. Unfortunately we all know that wasn’t the case. Cute show none the less but why the CW thought SATC fans would watch this ill never understand.

    I heard Nikita might be getting picked up for a full season instead of the limited order which was rumored a couple weeks ago. At this point if a pickup is only for syndication purposes then why not. Nikita can’t rate any lower than it already does..or can it? I’d suggest take Nikita off the fall schedule and let season 4 run over Summer 2014 but that would never happen.

  • Cass

    @Joseph
    I suspect “Nikita” will be moved to a midweek slot and the CW Friday-night schedule this Fall will consist entirely or reality and/or reruns.

    Nikita will not be moved to a midweek slot barring apocalyptic failure of all the new pilots. There is no chance of Nikita (if renewed) moving from the Friday deathslot where it is already doing poorly. Its ratings on a Friday do not warrant renewal on its own merits. It will be saved solely for syndication, so there is no reason whatsoever to shuffle it to midweek.

    Between having to put a rerun on a weekday slot (as has been the case multiple times this season with BatB reruns, for instance) and Nikita, the CW will choose a rerun and a reality show. Put like this, if there’s a hole in the schedule and the choices to plug it are: rerun, reality show, Nikita, the CW will not choose Nikita.

    I do expect in Fall 2014 or 2015 though that Fridays will be entirely unscripted.

  • Cass

    @Jared

    Yep, a summer Nikita doesn’t make sense given how much production probably costs. The CW is way better off running reality in the summer. I think Nikita is just as likely to be renewed for a 13 episode season as a 22 one. If I had to pick which one, I’m not sure I can be unbiased since I’m a big fan of the show.

    It probably comes down to the cost/benefit analysis. Do the extra episodes help pad the syndication package enough that it’s worth slogging through more terrible ratings? If yes, then 22. If no, then 13. Either way, I’ll be grateful we’ll get a final season.

  • Restless

    People saying no CW show has aired for 3 seasons and not gotten a fourth, what about Veronica Mars? Aired for 3 seasons, 64 episodes, made by WB, canceled by the CW in 2007.

  • F.R.

    The CW canceled Veronica Mars after 3 full seasons (22+22+20 – 64 total episodes)

  • F.R.

    Also, as of last week, supposedly negotiations between Warner Bros. and The CW have paused as CW evaluated which/how many pilots to pick up, while WB pushed for a package deal for the renewal of Nikita and series orders for three WB pilots.

  • Hostility

    People are really vicious animals, aren’t they? Just by looking at these discussions where some people want Nikita cancelled because they either hate it or don’t like the fact that CW might renew it with bad ratings. Why so much hate? I guess human nature. I hope that both shows would get renewed although I don’t watch neither, because I’m not some heartless bastard.

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